Best EuroBasket Bets for Tuesday, September 9
All odds current as of 8:15 AM ET Monday.
Shane Larkin Over 11.5 Points (-110 bet365)
Shane Larkin 15+ Points (+220 bet365)
Head coach Ergin Ataman talks about wanting the EuroBasket rosters to be larger, which is ironic considering he's running one of the best tightest rotations of any of the talented teams -- which is very good for us. Larkin has only hit the 15+ mark twice in this tournament, but we have to take in some context, which is playing time and blowouts. Turkey has really only been pushed twice all tournament, which was the Serbia game and the opening knockout stage contest. Both games Larkin played over 37 minutes . He's coming off a 3-of-12 shooting performance against Sweden, which is keeping this number attainable. Larkin gets a matchup ripe for the taking against fellow undersized EuroLeague veteran Jordan Lord, who he is very familiar with. I'm prioritizing the points but with the minutes and amount of time Larkin possesses the ball I think I will be sprinkling his assist ladder as well.
Jordan Loyd Under 21.5 Points (-115 bet365)
We could be flirting with fire here being 1-0 on unders, but hear me out. We talked about how good Ataman is and how we wasn't going to let Sweden beat him with Pelle Larsson, and Turkey made Larsson uncomfortable all game and limited his looks from beyond the arc, which limited Larsson to 1-of-4 from deep and only 15 points -- his second lowest mark of the tournament. The Polish team has leaned on Loyd even more than Sweden relied on Larsson, so I'm trusting Ataman to shut down the team's opposing star guard and allow anyone else to beat them. This does carry risk with the possibility of Loyd just letting it fly, but if I could I would ladder this down the opposite way.
Deividas Sirvydis Over 8.5 Points (-115 bet365)
Deividas Sirvydis 10+ Points (+125 bet365)
He was an absolute legend for us last game, and I'm absolutely flabbergasted they made his prop below 10 points again. Maybe the oddsmakers know something I don't know about the health of Margiris Normantas, because with Rokas Jokubaitis still out that's the only thing I can think of. Could Sirvydis play 30 minutes again and shoot horrendously? Of course, but with him getting 30 minutes and getting the second or third highest usage over the last two games the value is just too good to not take. The oddsmakers did protect themselves more this time around with the 15+ mark, so unless DraftKings drops good value on 12+ I'll most likely be stopping at the 10+ number. It's worth mentioning Sirvydis shot terribly from behind the arc last game and still came through for us, so maybe we pick up some luck from long range to make this easier to hit.
Kostas Papanikolaou Over 6.5 Points (-130 bet365)
Kostas Papanikolaou 10+ Points (+215 bet365)
Kostas Papanikolaou 15+ Points (+950 bet365)
He has gotten 30 minutes in three straight games and has hit the number in all three. In the last two he got up 14 three-point attempts, and if you do the math for a player who is shooting better than 35 percent from long range for his career that alone could do the trick. Lithuania will do what most teams do against Giannis Antetokounmpo, which is pack the paint and force him into kick-outs and jumpers. The only difference is Lithuania plays this style again everyone, so they're used to it. Antetokounmpo is going to get his regardless of what Lithuania does, but I think this does lead to a spike shooting game on the perimeter for one of these Greek guys. In the matchup with Spain it was Tyler Dorsey who benefitted, and I almost went that way, but I landed here because Papanikolaou is more consistent -- as long as the attempts are there. Be careful with the units on the final number due to the uncertainty in usage.
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