This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
NCAA Conference Tournaments: SEC, ACC and Big 12 College Baseball Best Bets
We made it! The regular season has concluded, and the season treated us VERY well with a little +48.87 unit action. The postseason is a completely different animal, though. It's a lot more aggressive with intuitive handicapping and educated guesses. The conference tournament week is a precursor to what we might see in June in Omaha with the College Baseball World Series, so let's get cracking!
*Note the Big 10 has not offered any odds at the time of this article.
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SEC Tournament Picks
I mean, this is pretty much an MLB breeding ground. The talent in this pool is gross. The issue with conference tournaments is trying to guess pitching matchups and which teams will actually try to go all out and win the week(end). In some cases, you have teams that are trying to give the last push to convince the committee to hand them a bid or grab a host/national position. And in others, some teams are solidified with a national seed and can't improve position heading into the Field of 64. Which makes it a challenging week.
Vanderbilt Commodores +600 (DK)
The Vandy Boys have been one of the more bizarre teams in 2025. They have the third-best RPI, which the committee views as pure gold, even though Johnny V thinks it's a total crock. Sitting at 19-11, the record and RPI locked them into a top eight national seed regardless, so the SEC tournament means very little to them aside from "play well going into June" perspective.
Tim Corbin's group won the SEC tournament a couple of years ago, and knowing his team won't take this team likely, I had to carve out their path too. Here's what I came up with:
- They have a double-bye, which means they only have to win three games to get the trophy.
- They would play the winner of UGA/Oklahoma or Kentucky on Thursday. Chances are UGA wins. My handicap tells me stud JD Thompson would throw that game against the Dawgs, the same team he went 8 IP, 1 ER, 14 K's against in mid-April.
- I like their chances there against any arm Georgia throws.
- Should they win that game on a neutral field in Hoover, Vandy would play the winner of Texas (and probably) Tennessee on Saturday.
Should they win that game on a neutral field in Hoover, Vandy would play the winner of Texas (and Tennessee* on Saturday. Tennessee faces the winner of Alabama/Mizzou on Wednesday, a game they should win. The Vols - if they win - would face Texas on Thursday, and since they need a couple of wins to give themselves a chance at a hosting bid, are likely throwing SEC Pitcher of the Year, Liam Doyle. I think the Vols win that game over the Horns. That means Tennessee and Vandy matchup on that Saturday in the semis.
Regardless of it being Texas or Tennessee, Vandy would probably throw Cody Bowker, who would be an advantage over Marcus Phillips (Tennessee) or Luke Harrison (Texas), along with their bullpen. Should they win that game against two cold teams, they're in the Sunday Finals.
Vandy has won three straight series and has a much more optimal path than the other side of the bracket, making +600 a bargain on a neutral field.
*likely matchup
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LSU Tigers +400 (DK)
It's more of an uphill climb for LSU, which could potentially match up with Auburn/Texas A&M and Arkansas/Florida just to get the finals. LSU's game on Friday would LIKELY see the winner of Auburn and the Aggies (unless Mississippi State beats TAMU in the first round). Kade Anderson, first team All-SEC, would probably go for LSU on that first-Friday game.
It's not a layup, but factoring in starting pitching and a completely fresh/deep bullpen, they would be my side regardless of the opponent. Should they win, they face the winner of Arkansas/Ole Miss (and Florida/South Carolina). I think the Gators beat SC, which means Ole Miss and Florida play. Both of those teams are vying for a hosting bid. I like the Gators the way they have been playing. So I cap it as Florida vs. Arkansas, which could go either way.
Arkansas would burn their ace, Zach Root, and UF would burn Liam Peterson. That would mean LSU (with red-hot Anthony Eyanson on the mound) sees a favorable matchup of the primary winner, which is an advantage. Eyanson has only allowed six earned runs in his last five starts (33.2 IP). Should they win that game, they're in the finals against Vandy, which would be a toss up.
Florida Gators +2000 (DK) 0.5u
Assuming the Gators beat the Gamecocks, their Wednesday matchup with Ole Miss seems relatively favorable. Florida's deep weekend rotation, along with their red-hot second-half performance, makes them a prime candidate in June. Still playing for a hosting bid, they should be plenty motivated.
I have them facing the Razorbacks on Friday with Root on the bump. Root got roughed up in late April against the Gators (four earned in 4.1 IP). If they won that game, they'll be throwing Pierce Coppola or Aidan King against (probably) LSU's Eyanson. It's definitely a tough matchup, especially since it would be their fourth game in five days. However, if they get past LSU, they would have a strong starter in the finals.
Because the Gators would need five wins in six days to capture the SEC crown, it makes them a longer shot. That's always difficult to do. But with how hot they are and the contributions in the entire pitching staff, it makes them a worthwhile play.
ACC Tournament Picks
The ACC is pretty deep this year, though there really isn't a team that's insanely dominant like in years past. It's a conference that may send 10 teams to the field of 64.
UNC Tarheels +250 (DK)
I think I've talked about UNC ad nauseam this year. Considering these conference tournaments are all about matchups, the Heels may have gotten one of the most favorable draws in the ACC. The price isn't great, and I'm not usually one to take these short numbers, but I feel the way the bracket and pitching lines up, this team has a great chance.
The Heels will play the winner of UVA and either Notre Dame/Boston College. Chances are it will be the Fighting Irish against the Cavs. Despite how hot ND is, I like UVA to win that one. Assuming it's UVA against UNC, the shallow 'Hoos staff could prove difficult to give a good pitching performance vs. the Tarheels on Friday. With Carolina's ACC Pitcher of the Year, Jake Knapp, going it seems like a tough task for anybody to beat them in that one.
If victorious, UNC faces the winner of FSU/Duke (or Louisville/Pitt). Duke likely will play FSU and with Jamie Arnold probably going in that Friday matchup, I think the Noles move on to the Saturday semis against UNC. That means FSU's Joey Volini will see either Jason DeCaro or Aidan Haugh. All three have been great this year, but UNC's pen is way better than the garbage heap the Seminoles have trotted out this year.
Should UNC win and make it to the Finals, I think there's a good chance they see the winner of Georgia Tech/NC State. Both of those teams they have a sizeable pitching advantage over. So the +250 is short, but give me the team that's been on fire in the ACC.
Big 12 Tournament Picks
In my opinion, this is the hardest Power 4 tourney to crack. The SEC may be the deepest, but the parity in the Big 12 is probably the greatest, meaning I can see 5-6 teams with legitimate shots to make a run.
Arizona Wildcats +800 (DK)
I'm not super sold on this group here, and really haven't been all year. The most appealing teams to me are Oklahoma State (2024 winners), Kansas, and TCU. The problem is they're all on the same side. And the bigger issue is they would all have to burn their best arms just to make it to the final round. Chances are one of those three pose a big threat to win this tournament, but the high-end pitching will factor in a lot to get there.
Arizona has the much clearer path combined with a good price. 'Zona will see the winner of ASU/BYU. As much as I love the Sun Devils (and think they could win the tournament), they are wildly inconsistent. Regardless of who U of A plays, it's a winnable matchup. Should they take care of business, they would see either WVU or (winner of Texas Tech/Cincy). Chances are WVU wins and they duke it out in the semis on Friday. Since the Mountaineers are vying for a hosting bid, they may burn Friday guy Griffin Kern on Thursday's showdown.
Regardless, 'Zona can handle any of those teams (already beat WVU earlier this year) to move to the finals. The bottom of the bracket is the gauntlet with KU/TCU/OK State killing each other. And because all of those teams would burn their best arms just to make it to the finals, it heavily neutralizes the pitching matchup in the finals. Long term, I'm not sold on Arizona, but they definitely have the better path to win, especially since they only need to get three games.
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