This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
David Price, BOS vs. COL ($8,900): Price's ERA still sits at 5.53, but his xFIP is a sparking 2.87 and his 29.4 percent K rate is a career-high. The negative can easily be identified as the four games in which Price gave up at least five runs. The opponents were a Baltimore Orioles lineup that arguably has the best offense in baseball, a Tampa Bay Rays stream of lefty crushers and the Yankees twice. Even without the re-assurance about what Price "found" in his delivery and the new higher leg kick, Tuesday's opponent is a Rockies squad with a 25.1 percent K rate against lefties and an abysmal wRC+ of 67 over the past two weeks. Price comes with an upside matched only by the best pitchers in the game, and in this spot the price is not indicative of that.
Chris Sale, CHW vs. CLE ($13,800): Some pitchers break the sabermetric models, with Sale and Jake Arrieta first and foremost falling within this category. Sale's xFIP sits at a mediocre 3.40, but the ERA is dazzling at 1.58, including 0.99 over his past seven starts. The strikeouts aren't what they have been in past years, but this has directly correlated with an improved efficiency that has led to pitching complete games on three separate occasions. You can certainly cede a few strikeouts in return for complete game, shutout and win bonuses (the longer a pitcher goes into a game, the more likely he is to pick up the win). The Indians sit below the league average with a 21.9 percent K rate against lefties accompanied with an 85 wRC+. There are some bats that could be worth paying up for and the arm of Jeff Samardzija, even at $11,700, warrants consideration if you can't swing the hefty tag on Sale or simply feel like trying to differentiate yourself from the field. Simply put, the Padres rank last in hitting righties and hold an unsightly K rate.
John Jaso, PIT vs. ARI ($3,700):Jaso was brought to Pittsburgh for his success against righties, and opposing starter Shelby Miller has struggled throughout his career against lefties, including this season when he's allowed a .421 wOBA and 6.84 xFIP to them. The leadoff spot in the order cements Jaso's consideration as a cash game play.
Chris Davis, BAL at HOU ($4,300): Repeating the 47 home-run count from last year was always lofty thinking, but Davis remains one of the best power hitters in the game. Doug Fister has really struggled against lefty bats this year, allowing a .389 wOBA, 4.71 xFIP and 1.67 HR/9. Davis has maintained his righty-crushing ways with a 142 wRC+, .380 wOBA and .269 ISO against them this season.
Brett Lawrie, CHW vs. CLE ($3,000): Lawrie came through the minors as a highly touted prospect, and while he's been more than serviceable with a career .323 wOBA and 103 wRC+, he's clearly fallen short of the upside it was once believed he possessed. This upside was most apparent in 2011 when he had 27 home runs in 112 games between Triple-A and the majors, and a combined wOBA over .430. Lawrie's 45 games with the White Sox has showcased his best offense since then, as he has a wRC+ of 118 and his ISO is up to .190. The K rate is an obvious concern, but the power upside paired with a matchup against the home-run prone Josh Tomlin (1.67 HR/9 this season) makes Lawrie a fairly elite play at such a low price.
Todd Frazier, CHW vs. CLE ($4,000): Parlaying on Tomlin's propensity to give up home runs, Frazier doesn't just show promise of home runs but actually has an impressive ISO of .278 and 14 home runs already on the season. It's not expected as Tomlin and Yan Gomes pair well in preventing stolen bases, but it's still none-the-less worth mentioning Frazier has stolen double-digit bags each of his last two seasons and already has four this season, just to give an extra bump to his upside.
Manny Machado, BAL at HOU ($4,300): An affordable price and the all important shortstop designation make Machado an excellent value play. When you stare up at Xander Bogaerts at $5,200 and Corey Seager at $5,300 and see little in the cheaper range, Machado's .410 wOBA, .302 ISO and 163 wRC+ look really good at this price. Houston is a home-run haven (especially to righties), indicating Machado won't be giving up too much offensive advantage leaving the friendly confines of Camden Yards.
Ben Revere, WAS vs. NYM ($3,500): While I still remain optimistic that Matt Harvey will be able to figure it out in the long term, I would be remised to overlook the .423 wOBA and 5.13 xFIP he's allowed against lefty sluggers this season. Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper are sexier, but you're paying for it with the price on each. Revere doesn't hold up as strong with the bat despite undoubtedly possessing a plus split against right-handed pitching, but his career .337 OBP against righties paired with lots of stolen bases (178 in 661 games) carves his space out on the value list.
Ryan Braun, MIL at ATL ($3,900): With a .422 wOBA and 163 wRC+ on the season it's hard to understand how Braun falls under $4,000. Maybe it's Julio Tehran's 2.73 ERA that shocked his price down, but the accompaniment of a mediocre 4.30 xFIP along with a BABIP and HR/9 rate due to regress towards the mean moistens the lips. Braun as rediscovered some of his base stealing, to further help his upside.
Whit Merrifield, KC at MIN ($2,000): If Merrifield keeps a spot second in the order, there's no shame in giving in and taking the min price. Merrifield doesn't figure to be a plus bat, but he does posses some abilities on the base paths, stealing at least 16 bases in each year he spent in the minors since 2011. Twins catcher Kurt Suzuki is infamously susceptible to stolen bases to only enhance the scenario.