FantasyDraft MLB: Thursday Values

FantasyDraft MLB: Thursday Values

This article is part of our FantasyDraft MLB series.

There's a large storm system moving through the Midwest so keep an eye on where you're picking players from. I'm staying away from Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh, Detroit vs. Cleveland and St. Louis vs. Milwaukee with all three of those games having close to 100 percent chances of rain for most of the day. Chicago vs. Philadelphia is right on the edge but should miss most of it.

PITCHER

Ian Kennedy, KC vs. CWS ($16,500): I don't think Max Scherzer ($24,600) is worth the money, so I'm focusing on two pitchers in good situations where rain shouldn't be a factor. Kennedy hasn't been great, but he's been solid in his five starts with 17 hits allowed in 31.1 innings. The reason to back him is that the White Sox are last in the league with a .272 wOBA and 25.3 K% against righties.

Joe Musgrove, HOU vs. TEX ($15,000): This isn't nearly as good of a situation, but the Astros are still one of the bigger favorites in the early games. Musgrove had his best outing of the season last time out in 6.1 innings, allowing one run to go with six strikeouts. And at the least, Musgrove hasn't been completely shelled yet and the Rangers have been hit or miss against righties. As a team, Texas has a mediocre .319 wOBA and fairly high 23.3 K%, which could help Musgrove coming off a season-high six Ks.

INFIELD

Miguel Sano, MIN vs. OAK ($8,700): This is one of the better righty-righty matchups of the day and not many are hotter than Sano, who has 12 hits in his last five games. Hot or not, he's been great all season with a .490 wOBA against righties. On the mound, Jharel Cotton is struggling, giving up 10 hits in 4.1 innings last time out and allowing a rather high .360 wOBA to righties.

Daniel Murphy, WAS vs. ARI ($9,200): If there's one player who makes sense Thursday, it's Murphy. He's crushing righties in the early season with a .231 ISO, .403 wOBA and minimal 9.5 K%. The kicker is that he faces Braden Shipley, who just got called up from Triple-A, where he wasn't exactly killing it with a 1.68 WHIP.

Marwin Gonzalez, HOU vs. TEX ($6,000):A.J. Griffin is pitching well, but this low price is a bit extreme for Gonzalez, who is 7-of-15 with four homers in his last five games. Not to say another home run is inevitable, but Gonzalez has a .379 wOBA against righties this season. As for Griffin, he has just three starts and is having issues against lefties with a 5.81 xFIP. Since that's a small sample, look no further than last season's 5.06 xFIP as backup.

OUTFIELD

Khris Davis, OAK at MIN ($7,600): Davis has cooled off a bit since a hot start, but this matchup should have him feeling good. Kyle Gibson hasn't made it six innings this season and only has eight strikeouts in his last four starts. That's good because Davis has a 29.1 K% against righties this season. On the positive side, Davis also has a .433 wOBA and .418 ISO.

Eddie Rosario, MIN vs. OAK ($6,800): For the price, Rosario is too good to pass up against Cotton. Rosario may not supply a ton of power, but he's on a 12-game hitting streak. He has a .334 wOBA against righties this season and that number jumps to .363 in home games. Cotton has a better wOBA (.306) against lefties, but his xFIP is up at 6.09 against them.

Bryce Harper, WAS vs. ARI ($10,400): If you go with cheaper pitchers, Harper will be there for the taking against Shipley. In 40.2 innings against lefties last season, Shipley allowed a .373 wOBA and 11 homers. Harper has been himself with a .506 wOBA and .416 ISO against righties. The best thing is that his numbers don't go down much when playing at home (.350 ISO, .469 wOBA) after they pumped up from the series at Coors Field.

UTILITY

Wil Myers, SD vs. COL ($9,000): Myers hasn't been exceptional against lefties this season, but he makes the most sense on a weak Padres lineup against rookie Kyle Freeland. Myers still has a solid .325 wOBA against lefties, and while his K% is rather high (27.6), that may not matter against Freeland, who has an early 7.5 K% and 5.02 xFIP against righties.

Ryan Zimmerman, WAS vs. ARI ($9,300): I had the cheaper Rajai Davis ($7,600) in this spot, but Zimmerman is a much easier play even with a couple other Nationals on the squad. It also makes sense to back the Nationals, who lead the league with a .356 team wOBA against righties going against a guy (Shipley) who just got called up and wasn't pitching all that well in Triple-A. As for Zimmerman, he's on a 10-game hitting streak with an overall .509 wOBA against righties and that number doesn't change whether at home or on the road.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Adam Zdroik plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: zdroik, DraftKings: rotozdroik, Yahoo: StreakMaster.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam, a 2019, 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's soccer editor. He also runs RotoWire's Bracketology, as well as writes on other various college basketball content. He has previously worked at ESPN and Sporting Kansas City, and he is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate.
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