MLB Betting Advice: Leveraging Bullpen Performance

MLB Betting Advice: Leveraging Bullpen Performance

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Betting: Finding Value In Bullpen Mismatches

I will be posting all qualifying plays from the following situational super systems so be sure to follow me on twitter @JohnRyanSports1 and ring the notifications bell so that you never miss any MLB betting opportunities.  

The MLB season has quickly completed over 25% of the 162-game marathon season amid many new rule changes that have been for the better of the game.  

The Tampa Bay Rays remain the top team in MLB with a 34-14 record for 74% wins and have made $1,810 per $100 bet placed. The AL East division is by far the best and most competitive one of the six divisions. The Baltimore Orioles have the second-best record in MLB at 31-16 for 66% wins and has made the $100 bettor a $1,140 profit. The Orioles trail the Rays by 2.5 games in the hotly contested divisional race that features all five teams sporting winning records. 

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Bullpens are More Significant 

The bullpens have become a more important factor in the games this season and the weightings of them in my predictive models have been adjusted accordingly. One of the best bullpens-dominated situational betting systems this season has been to bet on underdogs with the better bullpen ERA and WHIP. This situation has produced a 55-40 record for 58% winners and a 15.82% return on investment (ROI).  

When is the Optimal Opportunity to Bet on a Favorite? 

Specific situations with favorites have done well this season. Betting on road favorites in a non-divisional matchup, who is facing a team with a bullpen that is allowing 0.5 or more runs per game than the favorite's and whose bullpen WHIP is at least 0.2 greater than the favorite's has earned a 160-68 record for 65% winning tickets averaging a –163 wager and producing an 11% ROI over the past five seasons. Using the –1.5 run line bet has produced a 133-113 record for 54% winning tickets averaging a +105 wager and a robust 12.5% ROI.  

Drilling down into the database a bit more, if our favorite is priced between a –120 and –170 favorites on the money line and the opponent has won less than 40% of their games on the season improves the record to a highly profitable 48-19 for 72% winning tickets averaging a –144 wager and earning a 27% ROI over the past five seasons. Using the –1.5 run line has produced a 39-28 record averaging a +114 wager and earning a 23% ROI over the past five seasons.  
 

A Highly Profitable Situational Super System 

The following situational super system has produced a 75-39 record for 66% winning bets averaging a –115 wager and earning a highly profitable 24% ROI over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team winning between 45 and 50% of their games that has lost four or five of their last six games and is playing a struggling team winning between 40 and 45% of their games.  

Drilling deeper into the data if the guest is a divisional foe the record soars to 44-16 for 73% winning tickets averaging a –117 wager and earning a 37% ROI over the past five seasons. 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John Ryan
John has handicapped professional sports for 28+ years with a proven track record of success. He believes profits are earned over the long-term using advanced analytics, machine learning, and neural network quantitative applications. John has hosted or been a guest on more than 5,000 shows and signs off with "Bet with your heads and not over it. And may all the wins be yours." John provides advice with no hype -- just facts that you can trust.
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