Kyle Gibson
Kyle Gibson
31-Year-Old PitcherSP
Minnesota Twins
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Gibson made surprising strides at age 30 with a career-best 3.62 ERA and 8.2 K/9. He increased his average fastball velocity to 93.0 mph and his swinging-strike rate to 11.5%, both career highs. He kept more balls in the park with a 1.1 HR/9, compared to 1.4 in 2017. His 49.8% groundball rate ranked fourth among qualified starters. He was also more consistent with just two three-game streaks of allowing three or more runs, compared to 2017 when he was sent to the minors after a terrible stretch and 2016 when he had a 6.62 ERA in August. Control remains an issue (3.6 BB/9 last season) and it is hard to feel confident about his gains in velocity and strikeout rate, given how much they stand out and how late they came in his career, but if those gains turn out to be legitimate, he is an undervalued No. 3 starter. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year contract with the Twins in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration.
Labors in no-decision
PMinnesota Twins
July 12, 2019
Gibson gave up three runs (one earned) on four hits and a walk while striking out five in 3.2 innings Friday in Cleveland. He did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
He got off to a good start, but labored in the fourth inning and was lifted after hitting No. 9 hitter Greg Allen with a pitch on a two-strike count. Gibson has acknowledged that he has been struggling with his mechanics recently, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, and that may have been the case again in this start, as he needed 80 pitches to get 11 outs. His next start will come Thursday against the A's.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-5%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-20%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .275 970 180 83 238 37 7 26
Since 2017vs Right .248 966 219 85 216 39 1 35
2019vs Left .245 219 48 14 48 7 2 8
2019vs Right .257 198 51 15 47 7 0 6
2018vs Left .270 405 76 39 96 12 2 9
2018vs Right .215 421 103 40 81 18 1 14
2017vs Left .301 346 56 30 94 18 3 9
2017vs Right .282 347 65 30 88 14 0 15
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-11%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-15%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-3%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-24%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 4.48 1.40 213.0 15 14 0 7.9 3.4 1.1
Since 2017Away 3.98 1.35 240.0 15 13 0 7.9 3.3 1.3
2019Home 3.69 1.04 46.1 5 1 0 8.2 2.5 0.6
2019Away 4.33 1.46 52.0 3 3 0 9.9 2.8 1.9
2018Home 3.67 1.34 83.1 4 6 0 8.5 3.9 1.1
2018Away 3.57 1.27 113.1 6 7 0 7.9 3.4 1.0
2017Home 5.72 1.66 83.1 6 7 0 7.2 3.3 1.5
2017Away 4.34 1.39 74.2 6 3 0 6.5 3.5 1.2
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Stat Review
How does Kyle Gibson compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 70 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.41
 
K/9
9.1
 
BB/9
2.7
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
93.4 mph
 
ERA
4.03
 
WHIP
1.26
 
BABIP
.312
 
GB/FB
2.01
 
Left On Base
69.0%
 
Exit Velocity
89.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
8.6%
 
Spin Rate
2130 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
38.7%
 
Swinging Strike
13.2%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Gibson's final output last season mirrored his 2016 production (a 5.07 ERA both years), but last year featured a roller coaster that saw him both sent to the minors and become Minnesota's hottest pitcher. He began the season in the rotation but was sent to Triple-A in May after going 0-4 with an 8.20 ERA in six starts. He righted the ship when he returned later in the month and surged after the All-Star break. In the second half he reduced his walks from 4.2 BB/9 to 2.6 BB/9 while also upping his strikeouts from 5.6 K/9 to 8.2 K/9, resulting in a 7-3 record and a 3.76 ERA. In addition to a decrease in walks and increase in strikeouts, he gave up significantly fewer home runs and generated weaker contact. His stuff didn’t improve, but his pitch location did. Gibson has always had good groundball rates (50.8 percent last season) so if his command gains are legitimate, he could carry that second-half success over in 2018.
Gibson was expected to improve last season to become a reliable starter at the top of the rotation, but instead took a step back as both his walk rate and strikeout rates deteriorated. Gibson landed on the DL in April with a sore shoulder and missed nearly two months. He never got back on track when he returned as his velocity, strikeout rate and control all declined from the previous season. At his best, Gibson offsets his lack of strikeouts with a good groundball rate and average control. Perhaps health was the issue, but he'll need a bounceback season to remain in Minnesota's rotation.
Gibson had a solid, if unspectacular, 2015 season and will be counted on as Minnesota's No. 3 starter this year. His 194.2 innings led the team, and since his ERA was slightly below average, that made him Minnesota's most valuable player by bWAR. Gibson improved his strikeout rate, but it's still mediocre and his velocity (91.8 mph average fastball) wouldn't seem to indicate a lot of upside. He offsets his lack of strikeouts with a good ground ball rate (53.4 percent) and average control (3.0 BB/9, an uptick from his career norm). Gibson needs to be more consistent, as he has a pattern of alternating great and terrible starts; he had a 0.71 ERA in 11 wins and a 7.99 ERA in 11 losses last year. Still, at age 28, he could be hitting his prime now that he's established in Minnesota's rotation.
Gibson's first full season in the majors was an uneven affair as he showed glimpses of becoming a mainstay in the rotation while also having many ugly outings. He had a 1.42 ERA in his 13 wins, but a horrendous 11.04 ERA in his 12 losses. Gibson's poor strikeout rate (4.9 K/9 IP) limits his upside, but he's had some success due to a relatively low walk rate (2.9 BB/9) and a 54.4% groundball rate. If Gibson can reduce his number of disaster outings, he could improve to become a building block in Minnesota's rotation.
Gibson's first full season back from Tommy John surgery was a mixed bag as he had a strong season at Triple-A with a 2.92 ERA and 87:33 K:BB ratio in 101.2 innings, but struggled in his first test in the majors with a 6.53 ERA and 29:20 K:BB in 51 innings (5.1 K/9). While the 2009 first-round draft pick has been regarded as one of Minnesota's top pitching prospects, he's never had an overwhelming strikeout rate (8.0 K/9 in the minors) or velocity (92.1 average mph fastball in the majors), which may limit his upside. Still, he's likely to improve in his second full season after Tommy John surgery. He'll be a candidate for a spot in the Minnesota rotation in spring training.
Gibson, Minnesota's 2009 first-round draft pick, spent last summer working his way back from September 2011 Tommy John surgery. He made 13 minor league starts, including two at Triple-A in September. He then had a decent showing in the Arizona Fall League with a 5.40 ERA and 28:8 K:BB in 23.1 innings (He began 3-0 with a 0.69 ERA, but struggled in his last three starts). Gibson has a strong chance to win a spot in the Twins' rotation, but it sounds like he may start the season in the minors or the bullpen as the Twins have said they plan to limit his workload to 130 or 140 innings. With three above-average pitches and excellent control, Gibson could quickly ascend to the top of Minnesota's rotation, but his upside may be limited because he has never had outstanding strikeout rates in the minors.
Gibson, Minnesota's 2009 first-round draft pick, will miss the 2012 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He may have been part of Minnesota's rotation as early as 2012 after he started the season with a 3.79 ERA and 74:17 K:BB ratio through 71.1 innings at Triple-A. However, he faded after June and was sidelined with a sore elbow that later required surgery. When healthy, he has three above average pitches and excellent control.
Gibson, Minnesota's 2009 first-round draft pick, jumped from High-A to Triple-A last season. He could contend for a spot in Minnesota's starting rotation in spring training, but likely begins the season at Triple-A and gets called up after a few months. The 2009 first-round draft pick has three above average pitches and excellent control. He could be an impact fantasy pitcher in 2011.
Gibson, Minnesota's 2009 first-round draft pick, didn't play last summer due to a stress fracture in his forearm. He was able to return for Minnesota's instructional league and is expected to be ready for spring training. He has three above average pitches and excellent control, so the college pitcher could advance rapidly after an expected start at Low-A Beloit.
More Fantasy News
To pitch two innings Sunday
PMinnesota Twins
July 6, 2019
Gibson will start Sunday against the Rangers but will pitch just two innings, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out five
PMinnesota Twins
July 4, 2019
Gibson gave up three runs (two earned) on five hits and four walks while striking out five through six innings in a no-decision against the Athletics on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Pushed back to Wednesday
PMinnesota Twins
June 29, 2019
Gibson will not start Sunday as scheduled and will be pushed back to start Wednesday against the A's, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.
ANALYSIS
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Yields four runs in win
PMinnesota Twins
June 25, 2019
Gibson (8-4) allowed four runs on seven hits with one walk and seven strikeouts across seven innings to earn a victory against the Rays on Tuesday.
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Gives up six runs in loss
PMinnesota Twins
June 19, 2019
Gibson (7-4) gave up six runs on seven hits and five walks while striking out three through 4.1 innings, taking the loss against the Red Sox on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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