Shelby Miller
Shelby Miller
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Texas Rangers
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Miller returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of June. Things didn't go as planned for the right-hander, as he was tagged for 21 runs (19 earned) over four starts (15 innings) before landing back on the disabled list with elbow inflammation and missing almost the entire rest of the year. He was able to toss a scoreless inning of relief in the penultimate game of the season. Arizona non-tendered the 28-year-old this winter, an understandable move given his injury history and underwhelming numbers over the past three seasons (5-18 record, 6.35 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and 109:62 K:BB across 139 innings). Miller signed a one-year, major-league contract with the Rangers, and while he now has to make his home starts in one of the toughest venues for pitchers, at least he will be afforded a long leash in the starting rotation with Texas. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Rangers in January of 2019.
Moving to bullpen
PTexas Rangers
May 16, 2019
Manager Chris Woodward confirmed Thursday that Miller has been moved to the bullpen, Robert Falkoff of reports.
Woodward suggested that Miller's transition to relief work won't necessarily be a permanent one, but the right-hander provided little evidence in his eight starts that he's still an MLB-caliber rotation option. He failed to work longer than 5.1 innings in any of those outings and posted a 9.51 ERA and 2.11 WHIP, both of which ranked last among all pitchers who have received at least five starts. Woodward envisions using Miller as a one- or two-inning reliever for the time being, with most of the 28-year-old's initial usage out of the bullpen expected to come in lower-leverage spots.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .261 186 32 26 41 9 1 6
Since 2017vs Right .339 197 35 20 58 9 1 7
2019vs Left .264 84 14 10 19 3 0 3
2019vs Right .364 121 14 16 36 6 0 4
2018vs Left .229 42 11 6 8 1 1 2
2018vs Right .457 37 8 2 16 1 1 3
2017vs Left .280 60 7 10 14 5 0 1
2017vs Right .162 39 13 2 6 2 0 0
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
ERA on Road
Since 2017Home 7.74 1.91 43.0 2 4 0 7.7 5.2 1.9
Since 2017Away 8.00 1.75 36.0 1 5 0 7.5 5.3 1.0
2019Home 8.49 2.06 23.1 1 1 0 5.4 5.4 1.9
2019Away 9.17 1.87 17.2 0 2 0 7.1 6.1 1.0
2018Home 7.84 1.65 10.1 0 2 0 11.3 2.6 2.6
2018Away 15.88 2.65 5.2 0 2 0 9.5 7.9 3.2
2017Home 5.79 1.82 9.1 1 1 0 9.6 7.7 1.0
2017Away 2.84 1.18 12.2 1 1 0 7.1 2.8 0.0
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Stat Review
How does Shelby Miller compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 40 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
94.3 mph
Left On Base
Exit Velocity
90.3 mph
Spin Rate
2311 rpm
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
Swinging Strike
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Miller made four starts in 2017 before a torn UCL in his right elbow led him to season-ending Tommy John surgery in May. Before going under the knife, Miller was showing the ability to miss bats at a healthy clip in his limited opportunities to pitch, and his fastball velocity jumped to a career-high 94.9 mph. Although Miller was throwing from flat ground in October, he will be less than a year removed from surgery on Opening Day. As he moves further into his rehab, a clearer timetable for his expected return should surface. The D-backs' rotation was strong despite his absence in 2017, and with all five of those starters penciled into their respective spots to begin the season, Miller could end up as the team's sixth starter and long reliever initially upon his return. The increased velocity last season makes him slightly more interesting than he was coming off of a brutal debut season with Arizona in 2016 when his ERA topped out at 6.15.
Miller certainly would like to just forget the 2016 season ever happened. Acquired in an offseason trade with Atlanta (a deal that sent former No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson to the Braves, along with outfielder Ender Inciarte), Miller was supposed to pair with Zack Greinke to give Arizona a boost in the rotation. Instead, Miller struggled pretty much from the start, and he ended up being demoted to the minors in July. Miller's 6.15 ERA was easily the worst of his career -- his previous worst was the 3.74 ERA he posted in 2014 with St. Louis. Heading into 2017, Miller's stock is as low as it's ever been. He'll probably start the season in the rotation if only because of how much the team gave up to get him, but it's clear Miller is on a short leash. He will be much less in demand on draft day than he was a year ago, so he could be a decent bargain play if he's able to revert back to his previous form.
Miller's first two seasons feel miles apart despite only a 0.68 difference in ERA. His strikeouts plummeted, his walks spiked, and he likely wouldn't have maintained his 3.74 ERA without a .256 BABIP. His debut season with Atlanta looked a lot like the rookie season from 2013, complete with strikeout and walk improvements, plus a sharp spike in his groundball rate to a career-best 48 percent. He spent the first five-plus months with a sub-3.00 ERA before a modest September, but his season will be most remembered for a 24-start winless streak (0-16 with eight no-decisions). He certainly didn't pitch poorly, but his 3.83 ERA and 1.43 WHIP during that stretch played a big role in his own demise. If the groundball gains are real, he doesn't need a return to his '13 strikeout level to be solid. Pay for mid-3.00s and expect an uptick in wins after the blockbuster trade that sent him to the Diamondbacks.
In November, Miller was sent to Atlanta as part of the Jason Heyward trade, a move that could help the talented righty who's still just 24 years old. Miller was solid again in his second full season as a major leaguer, starting 31 games and posting a 3.74 ERA and striking out 127 batters across 183 innings. His underlying numbers are less impressive, however, as he was helped by a .256 BABIP and a 76.9% LOB percentage, slightly lower than his career norms. His 4.47 xFIP is not inspiring, but he is still very young and Atlanta has always had success in developing pitchers, so the change of scenery could be just what he needed. Unfortunately, the loss of Heyward from the outfield won't do Miller any favors as he's a bit of a flyball pitcher (0.97 GB/FB). Miller should still have a fairly safe floor and a decently high ceiling for 2015, making him a worthy gamble if the price is right.
Miller started the season on fire as one of baseball's best pitchers over the first few months of 2013. Even after cooling a bit in the second half, Miller finished the season with excellent numbers, striking out 169 batters in 173.1 innings and carrying a 3.06 ERA. He struggled with walks at times, but at age-23, he's still capable of ironing out those issues. Miller's mysterious disappearing act during the playoffs led many to speculate that the young flame-thrower might be traded during the offseason, but Miller remains with the team heading into the spring and projects to be a mid-rotation starter for the Cards in 2014.
One of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, Miller struggled at times with Triple-A Memphis last year, but he had a nice stint with the Cardinals late in the year, including a six-inning scoreless gem on the season's last day. Miller will be given every opportunity to win a job in the rotation this season, and given his stuff, he could be at the top of that rotation within a few years. You might look at his 4.74 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with Memphis and wonder what the big deal is, but check out the 160:50 K:BB ratio in just 136.2 innings. It might already be too late to get him at a good price.
St. Louis may inexplicably give the ball to Kyle Lohse every fifth day, but they have a pitcher down in Springfield that is probably better than Lohse right now. Miller, the top prospect in the St. Louis system, and arguably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, may get a shot at making the rotation out of spring training, but he's far more likely to pitch in the minors at least for a few more months. His walk rate could use a little work, as it increased a little when he advanced last year, but everything else is already major-league ready. Buy him now before it's too late.
The Cardinals are clearly being cautious about their top draft pick in 2009, but at 19 he put up a dominating 140:33 K:BB ratio in 104.1 IP for Low-A Quad Cities last year, so it won't be long before they start feeling the pressure to bring him up. A .367 BABIP contributed to his not-so-noteworthy ERA and WHIP, so his numbers could improve this year even if he doesn't. He's going to advance quickly, so pick him up in keeper formats while you still can.
Miller was the Cardinals' first-round pick out of high school last year. He's big and throws very hard, but at just 19, he has a long way to go before he reaches the majors. He'll probably spend all of 2010 in Low-A, working on his command.
More Fantasy News
Rotation spot in limbo
PTexas Rangers
May 15, 2019
Miller is not expected to make his next scheduled start, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.
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Blasted by Royals
PTexas Rangers
May 14, 2019
Miller (1-3) took the loss Tuesday as the Rangers fell 11-5 to the Royals, surrendering eight runs on seven hits and two walks over only 1.2 innings while striking out one.
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Will start next Tuesday
PTexas Rangers
May 11, 2019
Miller will make his next scheduled start Tuesday on the road against Kansas City, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports.
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Yields two runs in four innings
PTexas Rangers
May 8, 2019
Miller allowed two runs on four hits with six strikeouts and one walk across four innings during a no-decision against the Pirates on Wednesday.
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Could shift to bullpen
PTexas Rangers
May 3, 2019
Manager Chris Woodward said the Rangers are considering moving Miller to the bullpen, T.R. Sullivan of reports.
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