Over the past few years, Life, the Universe and Everything, has gradually become a semi-regular part of Mound Musings. As we all try to answer the ultimate question, I'll occasionally dedicate this space to elaborating on questions from you, the readers as well as take the opportunity to make brief comments about current events. If you have a pitching question, fire away; that's what we're here for.
Ability vs. Opportunity: I talk about it all the time, and quite frankly, it is involved in the vast majority of answers to questions. Readers frequently ask, "Please rank these pitchers for the rest of this season in a redraft league." I'm glad to answer such questions (but understand the answers aren't guaranteed; they are my opinions based on careful consideration of both ability and opportunity). Both are critical, and overlooking one or the other can lead you down a dead-end road.
In most cases, the list includes pitchers who have posted eye-opening peripherals that might lead to more fantasy relevant innings. That's the ability side of the equation, even though it might be a bit misleading. It seems easy enough, the better the numbers, the higher the chance he can help my team. Right? Ummm, yes and no. MLB rosters are loaded with flash-in-the-pan arms – especially young arms new to the MLB roster. Hitters being unfamiliar with a pitcher can lead to unrealistic – and unsustainable – results. And that (opportunity) can lead back to the minors or to a seat
Over the past few years, Life, the Universe and Everything, has gradually become a semi-regular part of Mound Musings. As we all try to answer the ultimate question, I'll occasionally dedicate this space to elaborating on questions from you, the readers as well as take the opportunity to make brief comments about current events. If you have a pitching question, fire away; that's what we're here for.
Ability vs. Opportunity: I talk about it all the time, and quite frankly, it is involved in the vast majority of answers to questions. Readers frequently ask, "Please rank these pitchers for the rest of this season in a redraft league." I'm glad to answer such questions (but understand the answers aren't guaranteed; they are my opinions based on careful consideration of both ability and opportunity). Both are critical, and overlooking one or the other can lead you down a dead-end road.
In most cases, the list includes pitchers who have posted eye-opening peripherals that might lead to more fantasy relevant innings. That's the ability side of the equation, even though it might be a bit misleading. It seems easy enough, the better the numbers, the higher the chance he can help my team. Right? Ummm, yes and no. MLB rosters are loaded with flash-in-the-pan arms – especially young arms new to the MLB roster. Hitters being unfamiliar with a pitcher can lead to unrealistic – and unsustainable – results. And that (opportunity) can lead back to the minors or to a seat in the bullpen. I'll be honest, assessing true ability is hard to teach and really only comes with experience. I'll say this, be objective and avoid giving too much credit to guys on your favorite team.
If you are going to replace a pitcher, you must be confident the replacement will be better long-term than the arm on your staff he is replacing and that he will have a steady work load.
Looking for reliable pitching: Not too surprisingly, as we approach the end of the regular season, the "good" pitchers tend to gain focus. The problem is, pitchers simply are not showing consistent performance. Did you know that there are just eight – that's right, eight – pitchers who have pitched 100-plus innings and have an ERA under 3.00? And, believe me, there are plenty of "aces" not among those elite eight.
The problem here is twofold. I have promoted the importance of matchups all season. Obviously, it's always been a key factor, but with the rampant pitching inconsistency, matchups are now very near the top of the list when deciding who pitches and who doesn't. In the past, I typically had what I referred to as "plug and play" starting pitchers – top-of-the-rotation types who were in the weekly lineup regardless of the opponent. There are still a few of those, but even the best pitchers are not necessarily going to provide good peripherals, and they aren't pitching as deep into games. However, notably, as we head into September, only about eight or nine pitchers are on pace to eclipse 200 innings and post a sub 3.00 ERAs. This includes Logan Webb, Zack Wheeler, Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Cristopher Sanchez, Paul Skenes, Bryan Woo, Hunter Brown, Matthew Boyd and Jacob deGrom. They all have a reasonable shot at tossing more than 200 innings, with a sub-3.00 ERA, but they better hurry.
IMHO the second problem somewhat defines the first. There seems to be an intense compulsion with pitchers to throw with extreme velocity. A large percentage of pitchers can get close to or exceed triple digits. Unfortunately, when these pitchers hump the speed by coming out of their shoes, there is virtually no command at all.
MiLB Attendance is Down this Year: Interesting. Minor league attendance is down quite a bit this year. Across 120 teams, announced attendance is down 174 fans per game, a 4.6 percent percent drop compared to this time last season. Currently, teams are averaging 3,472 fans per game in 2025 compared to 3,646 fans per game.
The drops are being seen across the vast majority of MiLB organizations, with 82 teams (68 percent) showing an attendance decline, 61 teams down 200-plus fans per game and 26 teams down 500-plus fans per game. To be fair, there are 29 teams showing an increase of 100 or more fans compared to last year.
There is no confirmed reason, but a rainy spring has likely played a role in some cities, but the number of lost games so far is right in line with the average number of games lost by this point of the season for the 21st century.
Fielding (and base-running) follies: I have mentioned this several times over the season, but it seems to be just getting worse. Errors and even base-running blunders are part of the game, but does anyone else see them happening far more often this year? Back in the day, we called it "fundamentals," and it was drilled into you over and over and over again until you literally never thought about it. "Get in front of the ball!" "Keep your eye on the ball – follow it into your glove." "Set your feet and follow through with your throw." "Pick up your coach." "Don't run into outs, especially at third base with less than two outs." Do any of those comments sound familiar?
I was actually watching a Mariners/Angels game while writing this. They went out of their way to help make my point. Now I don't mean to single anyone out, but it's coincidental so the names have not been changed to protect then innocent. Angels SS Zach Neto airmailed a throw into the dugout. Later he booted a routine groundball when he took his eye off the ball. Then, the Mariners attempted a stolen base. He was picked off. Unfortunately, neither Neto or 2B Brandon Drury made any move to cover second base. The throw bounced off the umpire into the outfield. Don't fielders communicate with each other to decide who will cover on a steal attempt anymore? That all happened over the course of about three innings. It's getting ridiculous. I saw better in Little League games.
Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:
- The Mets' Kodai Senga may be moving to the bullpen. He suffered through an ugly August after returning from a hamstring injury. People don't always think much about leg injuries for pitchers, but without that firm base, it can be very difficult to throw quality strikes. He'll be back, albeit maybe next spring.
- I have been talking all season about unexplained anomalies on the mound, and we have had another pop up. Justin Verlander has not pitched to his normal abilities until his last few starts, but in his last outing he walked four but struck out 10, both of which are higher than you might expect. He's tossing hints.
- Remember when Atlanta's Spencer Strider was one of the better starting pitchers in baseball? You have top go back to early in the 2024 season, and strikeouts were a big part of that. Since Strider suffered an elbow injury, his effectiveness has waned, and even the strikeout rate is down significantly.
- I finally got a chance to watch a bit of the A's Luis Morales this past weekend. The 22-year-old has put up pretty nice numbers (1.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP) in six starts this season, and overall, I'd say he looks more or less like the real deal. Naturally, I'd like him to have a little better command, but I like what I've seen.
- I'm on the fence regarding the Angels' Mitch Farris. He was a winner in his MLB debut, but his command wasn't truly sharp, and he didn't miss bats the way he did in the minors. He was coming out of Double-A, so a bit more seasoning could help. I think he's one to keep an eye on going forward.
Endgame Odyssey:
Congratulations, Aroldis Chapman. He's 37 years old and routinely hits triple digits, yet he's still one of the best closers, and the Red Sox just signed him to a contract extension. Just a heads up. The Reds may be soon be shopping around for bullpen help. Closer Emilio Pagan has been more and more hittable lately. I think he might be tipping pitches. Washington's Jose Ferrer is doing his best to erase the memory of former closer Kyle Finnegan. He's been on a roll and has notched six saves. With Milwaukee's Trevor Megill on the IL, it looked like Shelby Miller should be in line for saves, but he suffered an elbow injury, which probably opens the door for Abner Uribe. The Rangers are another of those committee bullpens. Right now, Shawn Armstrong might be a slight favorite for saves, but I find myself still favoring Phil Maton despite his varying velocity (he's gone from about 88 to 93 on his fastball over his career). Arizona wins the weird play of the week. Reliever Taylor Rashi, a run-of-the-mill junk-baller made his MLB debut, and they let him go three innings for a save. I don't look for many more. In San Diego, Jason Adam has a ruptured tendon and he is done for the year. He rarely got save chances, but he was a big part of an excellent pen.
Find out which projected starters are going and when with RotoWire's Probable Pitchers page!
