Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Cincinnati Reds
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Maybe it was leaving Camden Yards, the AL East, moving to the National League or simply the uplifting feeling of pitching on a playoff-bound team, but being dealt to Atlanta agreed with Gausman. After the deadline trade, he registered a 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP despite fanning just 44 in 59.2 innings. Gausman recorded a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with Baltimore, but his 4.06 xFIP before the trade was actually better than the 4.46 mark recorded after. His 16.7% HR/FB pre-deal was over twice as high as the 7.8% level post-swap. In addition, Gausman's BABIP with the Orioles was .317 compared to .260 with the Braves. The factors listed above likely helped Gausman's numbers, but he was due for some positive regression. With a full year in Atlanta on tap, expect another correction from last season's two-month sample. Unless he improves on last season's 19.1 K%, Gausman will remain subject to the whims of variance. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $9.35 million contract with the Braves in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration. Waived by the Braves in August of 2019. Claimed off waivers by the Reds in August of 2019.
Over illness
PCincinnati Reds
September 22, 2019
Gausman (illness) rejoined the Reds and will be available out of the bullpen for Sunday's game against the Mets, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Gausman was one of at least five Reds players who was sent home ahead of Saturday's contest while battling flu-like symptoms. Only Gausman will return to action ahead of the series finale, but the other ill players should benefit from the team off day coming Monday. Gausman's last appearance came as a starter back on Sept. 16, but the Reds' current pitching schedule doesn't call for him to make any additional turns through the rotation during the final week of the season.
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
54
Last 10 Games
22
Last 5 Games
23
How many pitches does Kevin Gausman generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Kevin Gausman generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-9%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-12%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-5%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .261 926 204 93 215 43 2 32
Since 2017vs Right .287 1117 237 60 295 57 4 38
2019vs Left .265 206 59 21 48 11 0 8
2019vs Right .295 245 55 11 65 11 1 7
2018vs Left .246 373 70 31 83 18 1 12
2018vs Right .281 403 78 19 106 21 2 14
2017vs Left .275 347 75 41 84 14 1 12
2017vs Right .288 469 104 30 124 25 1 17
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-7%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-19%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-2%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-3%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 4.46 1.35 256.0 14 15 0 8.7 2.8 1.4
Since 2017Away 4.78 1.47 216.2 10 17 0 8.0 3.0 1.2
2019Home 5.17 1.28 55.2 2 4 0 10.3 2.9 1.0
2019Away 6.36 1.59 46.2 1 5 0 9.6 2.7 1.7
2018Home 3.96 1.28 104.2 8 6 0 7.1 2.1 1.4
2018Away 3.87 1.33 79.0 2 5 0 7.5 2.8 1.1
2017Home 4.61 1.46 95.2 4 5 0 9.6 3.6 1.7
2017Away 4.75 1.53 91.0 7 7 0 7.6 3.3 1.1
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Kevin Gausman compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.56
 
K/9
10.0
 
BB/9
2.8
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
94.0 mph
 
ERA
5.72
 
WHIP
1.42
 
BABIP
.360
 
GB/FB
1.26
 
Left On Base
59.7%
 
Exit Velocity
88.5 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
8.4%
 
Spin Rate
1993 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
36.7%
 
Swinging Strike
15.0%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Following what seemed to be a sustainable breakout year, hopes were high for Gausman in 2017. Despite an unsightly 4.68 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, things weren’t as bad as they appear. In fact, if you snatched him off waivers for the second half, you were rewarded with a 3.41 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Gausman is on record as explaining he altered his mechanics mid-season, squaring his shoulders more towards home plate as opposed to edging a bit to the third-base side. He credits the change for gaining confidence in his splitter. The numbers agree as before the adjustment, he was sporting a 6.1 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 as compared to 10.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 after. Unfortunately, homers remained an issue until September when he only allowed three long balls in 35 stanzas, his only month with a HR/9 below 1.23. For the season, he surrendered 29 homers in 186.2 innings. It’s a risk, but if you have some dependable innings in the bank, Gausman offers the kind of upside needed to win leagues.
Gausman was essentially the same exact pitcher in the 2015 and 2016 with a nine percent difference in strand rate accounting for the ERA drop. He also added 67 innings for a career-high 180. Despite a carbon copy final line, he improved in-season. His curveball went from being a disaster to a plus pitch in the final two months while his splitter went from plus to plus-plus. He wound up with a 2.83 ERA and 3.6 K:BB in 76.1 innings over those final two months. Homers have been a problem in three of his four seasons and he needs to keep the ball in the yard if he's going to cash in on the No. 2 starter upside of his stuff and skills. He did have a 1.1 HR/9 in that late season stretch, but that's only good in comparison to the 1.7 he had the first four months. Considering this was just his first full season and he's still only 26, we can grant him some leeway and still bet on the upside.
The growth of young players is not linear. It’s a mantra worth repeating, especially for young pitchers. Perhaps it should be altered with the tag “in ERA” for them, because there is a case that Gausman did take another step forward and show some linear growth from his 2014. His strikeout, walk, swinging strike, groundball, and soft-contact rates all got better, but he tacked 0.68 runs onto his ERA and threw one fewer inning than 2014, so it doesn’t feel like progress from a fantasy standpoint. This is why even 112 innings is still a small sample that can mislead, as two disaster starts cost him 0.75 runs in ERA. Those starts count, we can’t just ignore them, but they have a disproportionate effect on his bottom line and obscure the good in his season. The ideal next step would be the Orioles leaving him in the rotation all season so he can improve the finer points of pitching, like sequencing and working through lineups three times. Shoulder tendinitis has his availability for his first turn in the rotation up in the air, so he should be slightly discounted on draft day.
Gausman’s emergence is one of the reasons that Ubaldo Jimenez's flop didn’t really hurt the Orioles last season. The young righty didn’t even reach the majors until mid-May and he wasn’t permanently installed in the rotation until early June, but they were still able to get a couple wins of value from their prized prospect in just 113 innings. He has a potent four-pitch arsenal, but he needs to learn to trust his changeup more and refine the slider so he isn’t relying on his fastball nearly 70 percent of the time. Of course when you average 96 mph with your heater, it’s easy to lean on that pitch as much as Gausman did. He is still learning to pitch, though, and he showed flashes of putting it all together, especially down the stretch with a 3.45 ERA and 3.0 K/BB ratio in his final 10 starts. There is frontline potential here, but it won’t necessarily all come at once. As a result, don't pay for 200 innings of a low-3.00s ERA just yet.
The Orioles wasted no time in promoting Gausman after eight Double-A starts, but he floundered as a starter, before returning to help as a reliever as the Orioles contended down the stretch. A closer examination of his advanced stats reveals reasons to be encouraged, as he carried a 9.3 K/9 in the big leagues. One issue for Gausman was his 18.6% HR/FB, a number that will certainly come down as he continues to get experience. However, he maintained the velocity for which he was touted, flashing a fastball in the 96 mph range. The Orioles figure to enter spring training with a bevy of rotation candidates, but with an impressive spring showing, Gausman should make the rotation. If he struggles, he'll start the season at Triple-A Norfolk.
Widely regarded as the top college pitching prospect in the 2012 draft, Gausman made a brief set of appearances in short-season and High-A before starting a Double-A playoff game. Gausman throws a fastball and a changeup, but he alternated his use of a curveball and slider during his last college season. As a starter he will probably throw both of them going forward, but they need work. Gausman seems likely to start the season in Double-A with a midseason promotion possible. He could even see time in Baltimore at some point in 2013.
More Fantasy News
Out sick
PCincinnati Reds
Illness
September 21, 2019
Gausman was sent home Saturday with flu-like symptoms, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Struggles in loss
PCincinnati Reds
September 16, 2019
Gausman (3-9) gave up three runs on three hits and no walks while striking out two through two innings to take the loss against the Cubs on Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Picking up Monday's start
PCincinnati Reds
September 16, 2019
Gausman is slated to start Monday's game against the Cubs, Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throws immaculate inning
PCincinnati Reds
August 19, 2019
Gausman threw an 'immaculate inning' Sunday against the Cardinals, striking out the side on nine pitches.
ANALYSIS
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Lands with Reds on waiver claim
PCincinnati Reds
August 5, 2019
The Reds acquired Gausman from the Braves on Monday after claiming him off waivers, sources tell Jeff Passan of ESPN.com.
ANALYSIS
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