World Series Game 1 comes our way North of the border in Toronto where the Blue Jays will host the Dodgers at 8:08 p.m. EDT. Los Angeles has confirmed Blake Snell as its starter, and Toronto announced on Thursday that it will start Trey Yesavage. Snell has been dominant in the postseason, allowing six hits and two runs across 21.0 innings, fanning 28. Yesavage has been erratic with touches of brilliance. He's allowed seven runs in 15.0 innings, the bulk coming in one poor start against Seattle, but he's also fanned 22.
The elephant in the room will be what to do with Shohei Ohtani ($21,900/$14,600), who is just insanely priced. I'll leave that decision up to you. I'm a single-entry guy, which makes this decision even tougher. Perhaps a limited entry tournament where you do and don't use Ohtani is the play. For as historic as his last game was, he's been feast or famine. Ohtani hadn't homered since the Dodgers first wild card game and has only one additional extra base hit all postseason.
Conventional wisdom will be to load up on the Dodgers and probably take a cheap secondary piece or two from the Blue Jays given Snell's form. The Dodgers are (-150) favorites and we've got a 7.5 run total. I'll counter that by saying the Dodgers have topped five runs once in their last eight. Toronto has done so six times in 11 games.
MVP
Vladimir Guerrero, TOR vs. LAD ($18,300/$12,200): Is Guerrero's price low enough to justify using him here over Ohtani? I'm not sure that it is, but the form clearly is. He's got 10 hits in his last five, has a hit in all but two postseason games and is hitting .442 with a 1.440 and 40 total bases. He hit .326 in season against lefties with a .404 wOBA and 163 wRC+. He is just 2-for-11 off Snell, however, with no homers.
Utility
Freddie Freeman, LAD at TOR ($16,500/$11,000): We're going to want at least one more pay up option, probably two, and I expect Freeman won't be targeted by many. And possibly for good reason; he's hitting .231 in the postseason and his only RBI is on a lone solo homer. But Yesavage is a high strikeout guy, so we want someone to put the ball in play. Freeman surprisingly struck out 24.0 percent of the time against lefties but had a reasonable .364 wOBA and 136 wRC+. It's likely a low ceiling play, but there's still enough potential to pay the price and potentially benefit when others don't.
Will Smith, LAD at TOR ($12,300/$8,200): The initial write up had Max Muncy here as a BvP play against Kevin Gausman, who curiously isn't drawing the start. So we'll pivot to Smith to give us a potential second top of the order bat that has a safer floor than Muncy. Smith had a .368 wOBA and 138 wRC+ off lefties, second amongst Dodger regulars to Ohtani. He's not had an extra-base hit in the postseason, but that's partly due to a hand injury that he's now put behind him. He had six hits and three runs in the sweep of Milwaukee, and could be rounding back into form
Tommy Edman, LAD at TOR ($9,300/$6,200): Edman and the next player listed here I think are going to be heavily rostered as glue guys to builds that help free up spending for bigger names. Edman has 10 hits in nine games (hitting .286) adding some upside with two homers. He's unlikely to give you more than a 1x return at this price but also unlikely to give you zero.
Ernie Clement, TOR vs. LAD ($7,200/$4,800): Clement trails only Guerrero as far as white hot postseason hitters. He's 18-for-42 (.429) with a homer, three doubles and a triple, scoring 10 times and driving in seven. The Blue Jays have a plethora of bottom-of-the-order options who are contributing, but the bulk of them are left-handed, so I doubt they will all feature against Snell, even more so with Bo Bichette expected back. This feels like a free square, as I anticipate very high roster percentages, and he's been good enough that if you try to fade it, it could bite you.
Teoscar Hernandez, LAD at TOR ($14,400/$9,600): As always, a reminder this column isn't supposed to list a suggested lineup, but rather give options in different tiers to consider. But if you used the five players listed above, you'd have $11,500 left over, which means you can play anyone you'd like outside of Ohtani and George Springer. Hernandez cooled after a torrid start to his postseason but still had a modest three hits and a homer in the Dodgers' sweep of the Brewers. Perhaps the time off to reset between series sparks him, but there's obvious run producing upside for a fair price.
