Joe Ross

29-Year-Old PitcherSP

Washington Nationals

60-Day IL

Injury Elbow

Est. Return 6/8/2022

2022 Stats

W-L

0-0

ERA

0.00

WHIP

0.00

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2022 Fantasy Outlook

One consistent theme throughout Ross's professional career has been injuries, and 2021 was no different. Ross had shoulder troubles in his developmental years in the minors, and had Tommy John surgery in 2017. He made it back in 14 months and was once again throwing mid-to-upper 90s, but the statistical results were not as attractive. After opting out of 2020, he pitched effectively in 2021 with a career high in innings as well as a career-best strikeout rate, but his season ended in mid-August with a partial tear in his previously-repaired UCL. It was decided he does not require a second TJS just yet as he and the club are taking the conservative approach, especially with Ross being in the final year before free agency. The theme continues in 2022, as Ross underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow in early March and will open the season on the 60-day IL, muddling his outlook for the entire campaign. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#598

ADP

Overall

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man No

Height 6'4"

Weight 220

DOB 5/21/1993

Born Berkeley, CA

College None

Drafted 1st Rd 2011 SD

Set for rehab assignment

PWashington Nationals

Elbow

May 22, 2022

Ross (elbow) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Double-A Harrisburg, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
The Nationals are targeting around four innings and 60 pitches Tuesday for Ross, who is making his 2022 debut in affiliated ball after he had been sidelined since undergoing surgery in early March to remove a bone spur from his right elbow. Washington will presumably want to see Ross build up his pitch count over at least two or three starts in the minors before integrating him in the rotation in the early portion of June.

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Pitching Stats

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2020

-13%

BAA vs RHP

2022

No Stats

2021

-13%

BAA vs RHP

2020

No Stats

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2020vs Left	.254	233	57	25	51	11	0	10
Since 2020vs Right	.222	227	52	9	47	6	0	7
2022vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2021vs Left	.254	233	57	25	51	11	0	10
2021vs Right	.222	227	52	9	47	6	0	7
2020vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2020vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
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Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2020

-37%

ERA on Road

2022

No Stats

2021

-37%

ERA on Road

2020

No Stats

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2020Home	5.19	1.25	50.1	2	5	0	10.0	2.0	2.0
Since 2020Away	3.28	1.20	57.2	3	4	0	8.3	3.6	0.9
2022Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2021Home	5.19	1.25	50.1	2	5	0	10.0	2.0	2.0
2021Away	3.28	1.20	57.2	3	4	0	8.3	3.6	0.9
2020Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2020Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Joe Ross

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2012

Ross is now entering his sixth season at the major-league level as the afterthought of the Trea Turner trade during the winter of 2014. Ross dealt with shoulder and elbow issues before opting out of the 2020 season. He tore his UCL in 2017, and has pitched 80 innings since recovering from that surgery, and while the velocity has returned, the pre-surgery command still has not shown up. Ross has a full bag of pitches at his disposal, but we have not seen him put it all together, nor have we seen many flashes since his rookie season. Washington wants him in the rotation in 2021, which is asking quite a bit for someone with durability concerns and coming off a full year layoff. The risks outweigh the reward here as there are safer players with upside to target.

Ross tossed 16 post-Tommy John surgery frames to end 2018, so he headed into last offseason on a normal routine, with a chance to break camp in the Nationals' rotation. Despite working 10.2 innings in the spring, registering a 2.53 ERA with 10 strikeouts and three walks, he began the season with Triple-A Fresno as a reliever. It didn't take long before he was summoned to pitch out of the bullpen. The transition did not go well. In late May, he was sent back to Fresno after recording a 9.22 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Ross was stretched out and when he returned, he was used as a starter and primary pitcher. His 3.83 ERA appeared impressive, but the 1.54 WHIP and 24 walks in 49.1 innings were more telling. Ross' velocity matched pre-surgery, but he never regained control. Despite the sketchy underlying metrics, Ross should get another chance to start. He's worth a flier provided his spring control shows improvement.

Ross pitched a handful of forgettable innings as he continued his recovery from Tommy John surgery. He will be 18 months removed from his surgery when pitchers and catchers report to camp this spring, and there is still some recovery work ahead of him. The common problem with pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery is how we define success in that return. The pitcher can get their velocity back within 12-to-15 months of the surgery, and that has happened for Ross. The larger issue is regaining command of their arsenal. Without it, the results are often pretty poor. We saw that last year with Ross when he did pitch, and we'll likely see more of it this season as well. In a standard redraft league, you can cross him off your draft prep list. In NL-only leagues, keeper leagues and deep draft-and-holds, sure, you can take an endgame flier.

The Nationals surprisingly sent Ross to Triple-A at the end of spring training, instead opting to use Jeremy Guthrie as their fifth starter to open the season. Guthrie's stint with the Nats lasted less than one inning, and Ross was ultimately called up in mid-April the next time the team needed a fifth starter. After winning his 2017 debut, Ross scuffled in consecutive outings and was sent back to Syracuse. Once he returned in May, he tossed a gem in his first start back, but he struggled to find consistency with his sinker and slider. Ross had a six-start stretch that included a 2.95 ERA from early June through July 4th, but his velocity dropped and it was revealed that he had a torn UCL, which required Tommy John surgery in July. A return in 2018 is possible, though it's unlikely to happen before August, if it happens at all.

Ross followed in his brother Tyson's footsteps straight to the DL in 2016, as shoulder issues cost him 10 weeks over the summer, but his overall numbers were similar to his rookie performance. His BABIP spiked and took his WHIP with it, but his K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 rates were all right in line with 2015. Left-handers still punished him to the tune of a .356 wOBA, as he has yet to find an offspeed pitch that can give them trouble. The biggest concern with Ross remains his long-term health, considering Tyson's career arc and the similarities in their builds and mechanics on the mound. The Nationals are counting on a healthy Ross to shore up the middle of their rotation. His 93-mph fastball, excellent slider and work-in-progress changeup should be up to the task. The long-term health risks are certainly legitimate, but in single-season leagues, the younger Ross deserves another look at a clearance price.

Tyson’s younger brother seemed to have learned a lot from big brother (six years difference) and looked a lot like him on the mound physically, in mechanics and pitch arsenal. Joe’s biggest difference is a positive: his walk rate. Tyson has never had fewer than 3.3 BB/9 in a season which kept in line with his minor league record. Joe had a 2.6 BB/9 as a minor leaguer and then a 2.5 with Washington. There’s work to be done, though. The changeup was a nightmare and led to a 348-point platoon split in favor of lefties. Big bro’s response to a similar issue has been “what’s a changeup?” as his use of one has essentially vanished. Joe doesn’t need to do the same just yet as his change has shown flashes of being at least average. He’ll need to improve vs. lefties because he’s unlikely to stay otherworldly vs. righties (2nd-best OPS vs. RHB from his callup; between Kershaw and Greinke). His 2015 ERA over a full season would still be good at 23 years old.

Ross was trending toward joining his older brother Tyson in the San Diego rotation as early as 2015 before he was traded to Washington in the offseason. Reaching Double-A for the first time as a 21-year-old last season, the younger Ross impressed with a 19:1 K:BB over 20 innings with San Antonio. The success down the stretch followed improvement in his numbers with the move from the Midwest League to the California League to begin 2014. In addition to missing bats at a steady clip, Ross has continued to induce a lot of contact outs on the ground, posting a combined 1.59 GO/AO in 2014. With a three-pitch arsenal that includes a 91-92 mph two-seam fastball (he can touch 96 mph with his four-seamer), above-average slider and improving changeup, Ross may become a very good mid-rotation starter in short order.

The Padres used their 2011 first-round draft pick (25th overall) on Ross, a right-handed pitcher out of Bishop O'Dowd High School in Oakland. His fastball has been clocked as high as 95 mph and he also throws a power curve and a nice change-up.

More Fantasy News

Ramps up to three innings

PWashington Nationals

Elbow

May 20, 2022

Ross (elbow) threw 43 pitches over three innings during a simulated game Thursday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.

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Tosses pair of simulated innings

PWashington Nationals

Elbow

May 14, 2022

Ross (elbow) threw two simulated innings at the Nationals' extended spring training complex Friday, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports.

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Increasing pitch count in sim game

PWashington Nationals

Elbow

May 8, 2022

Nationals manager Dave Martinez said Sunday that Ross (elbow) will advance to a two-inning simulated game at the organization's spring training facility in Florida this week, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports.

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Facing live batters

PWashington Nationals

Elbow

May 1, 2022

Ross (elbow) is scheduled to pitch against live hitters Tuesday, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports.

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Throws off mound Wednesday

PWashington Nationals

Elbow

April 27, 2022

Ross (elbow) threw a bullpen session Wednesday, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports.

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