Joe Musgrove

Joe Musgrove

29-Year-Old PitcherSP
San Diego Padres
2022 Fantasy Outlook
Musgrove was another pitcher to find a new level of success upon leaving Pittsburgh, as he posted a career-best 3.18 ERA across 181.1 innings in 2021. He saw a slight increase in velocity across the board while also featuring a cutter in his pitch arsenal for the first time. That resulted in limiting right-handed hitters to just a .252 wOBA and 0.80 HR/9, well better than his career marks of .289 and 1.1, respectively. Musgrove was particularly hot out of the gate -- he threw the first no-hitter in Padres history in his second start of the season -- and maintained a 2.22 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP with a 103:19 K:BB across his first 15 outings. He couldn't carry that success into the second half, as he closed the campaign by posting a 4.02 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with a 100:35 K:BB across his final 17 appearances. That makes it difficult to project additional growth in 2022, though he'll be locked into the rotation and it's reasonable to expect an ERA in the mid 3s and WHIP in the low 1.20s across 170 innings in 2022. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#73
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $8.63 million contract with the Padres in March of 2022.
Another no-decision
PSan Diego Padres
May 15, 2022
Musgrove gave up three runs (two earned) on four hits and three walks over six innings during Sunday's 7-3 win over Atlanta in 11 innings. He had six strikeouts and didn't factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
Atlanta tallied one run via a throwing error during the second inning, and the only runs Musgrove was responsible for in the contest came via a two-run home run from Dansby Swanson during the fourth frame. The right-hander otherwise held Atlanta to four singles, and he has yet to surrender more than two earned runs in any of his seven starts this season. Musgrove will carry a 2.20 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 47:6 K:BB into his next outing, which tentatively lines up for next weekend in San Francisco.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2022 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
92
Last 10 Games
92
Last 5 Games
96
How many pitches does Joe Musgrove generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Joe Musgrove generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-9%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-16%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-35%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .219 576 159 44 112 24 5 19
Since 2020vs Right .212 514 146 32 99 22 0 12
2022vs Left .207 92 27 4 18 6 0 2
2022vs Right .228 84 20 2 18 4 0 2
2021vs Left .230 386 101 28 79 14 4 14
2021vs Right .194 362 102 26 63 13 0 8
2020vs Left .183 98 31 12 15 4 1 3
2020vs Right .281 68 24 4 18 5 0 2
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-28%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-29%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-15%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-69%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 2.68 1.05 131.0 8 6 0 11.4 2.4 1.0
Since 2020Away 3.73 1.13 128.0 7 8 0 9.1 2.8 1.2
2022Home 1.80 0.75 20.0 2 0 0 9.5 0.9 0.9
2022Away 2.52 1.08 25.0 2 0 0 9.4 1.4 0.7
2021Home 2.92 1.13 92.1 6 4 0 11.4 2.6 1.0
2021Away 3.44 1.03 89.0 5 5 0 8.7 2.7 1.2
2020Home 2.41 1.02 18.2 0 2 0 13.5 2.9 1.0
2020Away 7.71 1.86 14.0 0 3 0 10.9 5.8 1.9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Joe Musgrove compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
7.83
 
K/9
9.4
 
BB/9
1.2
 
HR/9
0.8
 
Fastball
92.0 mph
 
ERA
2.20
 
WHIP
0.93
 
BABIP
.286
 
GB/FB
1.29
 
Left On Base
74.2%
 
Exit Velocity
80.5 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.0%
 
Spin Rate
2540 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
23.9%
 
Swinging Strike
13.7%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Joe Musgrove
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4 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as warming weather is contributing to more scoring. Sugar Shane McClanahan only has one start, but still tops the AL rankings.
Collette Calls: Still Chasing Wins
5 days ago
Wins have been hard to come by this season. Jason Collette examines early run-support numbers and notes pitchers that have enjoyed good fortune in that regard, and those that have not, like Corbin Burnes.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Knock on Woodruff
11 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as two-start Brandon Woodruff is looking good after a rough opener.
DraftKings MLB: Sunday Breakdown
17 days ago
Chris Morgan likes Anthony Rendon based on his lower salary and continued prowess against left-handed pitchers.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: What Have You Done Lately?
18 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as there is finally a big enough sample of outings to be actionable.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Musgrove's 3.82 FIP in 2019 indicated that he deserved better than his 4.44 ERA. As it turns out, that number was a near-perfect estimation of his ERA in 2020, which came in at 3.86 in eight starts, a number cut short by a spell on the injured list due to triceps inflammation. For the fourth consecutive year, Musgrove's FIP beat his ERA, coming in at a career-low 3.42. His underlying numbers looked like they belonged to an entirely different pitcher than who he was in his first four seasons. His K% sat in a very narrow band between 20.6% and 21.9% in those years before shooting up to 33.1% in 2020. That did come with some control problems, as he posted a 9.6 BB%, well above his previous career high of 6.3%, though he also produced a career-high 48.4% groundball rate. The good here definitely outweighs the bad, and while the sample was quite small, Musgrove looks more interesting than ever heading into 2021.
Musgrove's baseline skills look better than a pitcher who ended up with a 4.44 ERA. Last season marked the second consecutive year where Musgrove's FIP was at least half a run lower than his ERA, as he and the Pirates struggled to strand baserunners. He allowed four or more earned runs in nine of his 31 outings, and had a 7.17 ERA the third time through a lineup. His slider took a big step forward in 2019 in terms of pitch value, but it did not have a sufficient supporting cast despite his fastball spin rate being in the 80th percentile league-wide. Last season was the first with a significant workload for Musgrove, but the overall results did not look much different from previous efforts. This feels like yet another example of the team's strategy holding back a talented arm, so perhaps the change in pitching coach may lead to a different path forward for Musgrove. The skills are there for better results.
Musgrove was limited by injuries but performed at a high level between DL stints, creating some excitement heading into 2019. After turning the page on a shoulder issue, Musgrove made his Pirates debut May 20 and blanked the Cardinals over seven innings. A finger infection sidelined Musgrove again in July, but he returned to post an even 1.0 BB/9 in 62.1 innings after the break, lowering his walk rate to just 4.7% for the season. His 20.6 K% was underwhelming, though an 11.4% swinging-strike rate and an excellent 68.3% first-pitch-strike rate hint at room for growth in that department. The Pirates were forced to shut Musgrove down early and sent him for surgery to repair his right abdominal wall and to heal a stress reaction in his pelvic bone, but he was expected to have a relatively normal offseason. There's no doubt that Musgrove will have a rotation spot when healthy. The command is there for him to take his performance to the next level.
For some, it is a tale of two halves. For Musgrove, it was a tale of two roles. As a starter, Musgrove posted a 6.12 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP. After being demoted to the bullpen, he registered a sparkling 1.44 ERA with a stingy 0.86 WHIP. Sometimes, this is just happenstance, with regression occurring after the role change, not because of it. However, in this instance, Musgrove increased the use of his fastball (adding three mph), slider and cutter while barely throwing his sinker and curveball. The results were astounding, as Musgrove's swinging-strike rate gained three percentage points, while his walks and homers dropped significantly. Focusing on homers, as a starter, Musgrove surrendered 16 in just 78 innings compared to only two in 31.1 frames out of the bullpen. Just when it seemed he was poised to become one of the useful non-closer fantasy relievers in the Chris Devenski or Chad Green mold, Musgrove was dealt to the Pirates as part of the Gerrit Cole trade. He will return to starting in Pittsburgh, and more growing pains should be expected.
Musgrove excelled at the upper levels of the minor leagues in 2016, earning a look in the Astros' rotation over the final two months. Aside from one eight-run blowup at Baltimore, Musgrove was mostly impressive as he was able to maintain a good walk rate against more advance hitters while continuing to miss bats at a strong clip. His 4.23 FIP suggests he may have overachieved slightly in the ratio categories, but command and control give Musgrove a nice floor as he enters his age-24 season and continues along the major-league learning curve. The Astros' signing of Charlie Morton and a potential role change for Chris Devenski cloud Musgrove's status somewhat, but there are health concerns at the top of the rotation, and Musgrove should serve as the top fill-in if he misses out on a rotation spot out of camp. He's more than an AL-only consideration.
Musgrove, Toronto's first pick in the compensation round of the 2011 draft (46th overall), was acquired by the Astros in 2012 and has spent the past four years in the lower levels of their minor league system. His stock has finally started to rise, however, as he opened 2015 with Low-A Quad Cities and finished the year at Double-A Corpus Christi. Between three levels last season, he appeared In 19 games (14 starts) and went 12-1 with a 1.88 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 99:8 K:BB ratio over 100.2 innings. The 23-year-old right-hander sports a mid-to-low 90s fastball, plus slider and plus-plus command, but his future as a big league starter or reliever is unclear. He's likely to return to Corpus Christi or open 2016 with Triple-A Fresno.
More Fantasy News
Eight strikeouts in no-decision
PSan Diego Padres
May 8, 2022
Musgrove allowed two runs on five hits and a walk, striking out eight in seven innings in a 3-2 win Sunday over Miami. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Whiffs eight in win
PSan Diego Padres
May 1, 2022
Musgrove (4-0) allowed a run on seven hits and no walks while striking out eight in seven innings to earn the win over the Pirates on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Picks up third win
PSan Diego Padres
April 26, 2022
Musgrove (3-0) earned the win over the Reds on Tuesday. He was charged with five runs (two earned) on seven hits and one walk, striking out four in six innings.
ANALYSIS
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Fans seven in win
PSan Diego Padres
April 19, 2022
Musgrove (2-0) earned the win Tuesday, allowing two runs on four hits and one walk over 6.1 innings against the Reds. He struck out seven.
ANALYSIS
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Cruises to win Thursday
PSan Diego Padres
April 14, 2022
Musgrove (1-0) earned the win over Atlanta on Thursday, pitching 6.2 scoreless innings during which he allowed four hits and struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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