Joe Musgrove
Joe Musgrove
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
San Diego Padres
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Musgrove's 3.82 FIP in 2019 indicated that he deserved better than his 4.44 ERA. As it turns out, that number was a near-perfect estimation of his ERA in 2020, which came in at 3.86 in eight starts, a number cut short by a spell on the injured list due to triceps inflammation. For the fourth consecutive year, Musgrove's FIP beat his ERA, coming in at a career-low 3.42. His underlying numbers looked like they belonged to an entirely different pitcher than who he was in his first four seasons. His K% sat in a very narrow band between 20.6% and 21.9% in those years before shooting up to 33.1% in 2020. That did come with some control problems, as he posted a 9.6 BB%, well above his previous career high of 6.3%, though he also produced a career-high 48.4% groundball rate. The good here definitely outweighs the bad, and while the sample was quite small, Musgrove looks more interesting than ever heading into 2021. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#123
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $4.45 million contract with the Pirates in January of 2021. Traded to the Padres in January of 2021.
Solid in no-decision
PSan Diego Padres
June 23, 2021
Musgrove got the no-decision in Wednesday's 5-3 win over the Dodgers, allowing two runs (one earned) on two hits and two walks with five strikeouts across six innings.
ANALYSIS
Musgrove pitched extremely well outside of the fourth inning, when he allowed both runs and three of five total baserunners. While wins have been difficult to come by, Musgrove has gone eight straight starts allowing three runs or less and has lowered his ERA from 3.00 to 2.22 in that stretch to achieve a top-10 mark.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
88
Last 10 Games
88
Last 5 Games
87
How many pitches does Joe Musgrove generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Joe Musgrove generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-2%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-9%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-35%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .230 627 154 37 131 36 8 21
Since 2019vs Right .225 591 161 37 122 30 0 14
2021vs Left .179 186 58 10 30 5 2 7
2021vs Right .162 148 45 9 22 4 0 2
2020vs Left .183 98 31 12 15 4 1 3
2020vs Right .281 68 24 4 18 5 0 2
2019vs Left .270 343 65 15 86 27 5 11
2019vs Right .239 375 92 24 82 21 0 10
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-4%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-3%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-69%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-27%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 3.89 1.10 155.0 8 11 0 9.9 2.1 1.3
Since 2019Away 3.72 1.14 133.0 7 12 0 9.1 2.4 0.9
2021Home 2.25 0.94 48.0 3 3 0 11.3 2.4 0.9
2021Away 2.19 0.70 37.0 1 3 0 10.5 1.5 1.0
2020Home 2.41 1.02 18.2 0 2 0 13.5 2.9 1.0
2020Away 7.71 1.86 14.0 0 3 0 10.9 5.8 1.9
2019Home 5.09 1.21 88.1 5 6 0 8.5 1.8 1.5
2019Away 3.73 1.22 82.0 6 6 0 8.1 2.3 0.7
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Joe Musgrove compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
5.42
 
K/9
10.9
 
BB/9
2.0
 
HR/9
1.0
 
Fastball
93.3 mph
 
ERA
2.22
 
WHIP
0.84
 
BABIP
.239
 
GB/FB
1.48
 
Left On Base
80.5%
 
Exit Velocity
79.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.5%
 
Spin Rate
2612 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
22.7%
 
Swinging Strike
14.1%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Joe Musgrove
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Yesterday
Kevin Payne breaks down FanDuel's main slate for Wednesday's MLB action, where Houston's Michael Brantley draws a favorable matchup against the Orioles at Camden Yards.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Status Quo, at Least for Now
5 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the starting pitchers for the upcoming week, where Miami's Trevor Rogers has officially arrived as he cracks the Top 5.
The Z Files: Spin City
9 days ago
Todd Zola takes a look at the spin rate leaderboards on individual pitches and finds some surprising numbers from veteran hurlers like Adam Wainwright.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Towering Above the Rest
12 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as Rays ace Tyler Glasnow is leaps and bounds ahead of the pack.
MLB Betting: Saturday Best Bets
12 days ago
Juan Blanco likes the Mets among his best bets for Saturday.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Musgrove's baseline skills look better than a pitcher who ended up with a 4.44 ERA. Last season marked the second consecutive year where Musgrove's FIP was at least half a run lower than his ERA, as he and the Pirates struggled to strand baserunners. He allowed four or more earned runs in nine of his 31 outings, and had a 7.17 ERA the third time through a lineup. His slider took a big step forward in 2019 in terms of pitch value, but it did not have a sufficient supporting cast despite his fastball spin rate being in the 80th percentile league-wide. Last season was the first with a significant workload for Musgrove, but the overall results did not look much different from previous efforts. This feels like yet another example of the team's strategy holding back a talented arm, so perhaps the change in pitching coach may lead to a different path forward for Musgrove. The skills are there for better results.
Musgrove was limited by injuries but performed at a high level between DL stints, creating some excitement heading into 2019. After turning the page on a shoulder issue, Musgrove made his Pirates debut May 20 and blanked the Cardinals over seven innings. A finger infection sidelined Musgrove again in July, but he returned to post an even 1.0 BB/9 in 62.1 innings after the break, lowering his walk rate to just 4.7% for the season. His 20.6 K% was underwhelming, though an 11.4% swinging-strike rate and an excellent 68.3% first-pitch-strike rate hint at room for growth in that department. The Pirates were forced to shut Musgrove down early and sent him for surgery to repair his right abdominal wall and to heal a stress reaction in his pelvic bone, but he was expected to have a relatively normal offseason. There's no doubt that Musgrove will have a rotation spot when healthy. The command is there for him to take his performance to the next level.
For some, it is a tale of two halves. For Musgrove, it was a tale of two roles. As a starter, Musgrove posted a 6.12 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP. After being demoted to the bullpen, he registered a sparkling 1.44 ERA with a stingy 0.86 WHIP. Sometimes, this is just happenstance, with regression occurring after the role change, not because of it. However, in this instance, Musgrove increased the use of his fastball (adding three mph), slider and cutter while barely throwing his sinker and curveball. The results were astounding, as Musgrove's swinging-strike rate gained three percentage points, while his walks and homers dropped significantly. Focusing on homers, as a starter, Musgrove surrendered 16 in just 78 innings compared to only two in 31.1 frames out of the bullpen. Just when it seemed he was poised to become one of the useful non-closer fantasy relievers in the Chris Devenski or Chad Green mold, Musgrove was dealt to the Pirates as part of the Gerrit Cole trade. He will return to starting in Pittsburgh, and more growing pains should be expected.
Musgrove excelled at the upper levels of the minor leagues in 2016, earning a look in the Astros' rotation over the final two months. Aside from one eight-run blowup at Baltimore, Musgrove was mostly impressive as he was able to maintain a good walk rate against more advance hitters while continuing to miss bats at a strong clip. His 4.23 FIP suggests he may have overachieved slightly in the ratio categories, but command and control give Musgrove a nice floor as he enters his age-24 season and continues along the major-league learning curve. The Astros' signing of Charlie Morton and a potential role change for Chris Devenski cloud Musgrove's status somewhat, but there are health concerns at the top of the rotation, and Musgrove should serve as the top fill-in if he misses out on a rotation spot out of camp. He's more than an AL-only consideration.
Musgrove, Toronto's first pick in the compensation round of the 2011 draft (46th overall), was acquired by the Astros in 2012 and has spent the past four years in the lower levels of their minor league system. His stock has finally started to rise, however, as he opened 2015 with Low-A Quad Cities and finished the year at Double-A Corpus Christi. Between three levels last season, he appeared In 19 games (14 starts) and went 12-1 with a 1.88 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 99:8 K:BB ratio over 100.2 innings. The 23-year-old right-hander sports a mid-to-low 90s fastball, plus slider and plus-plus command, but his future as a big league starter or reliever is unclear. He's likely to return to Corpus Christi or open 2016 with Triple-A Fresno.
More Fantasy News
Throws seven shutout innings
PSan Diego Padres
June 17, 2021
Musgrove allowed just four hits and three walks while striking out two over seven scoreless innings Thursday versus Cincinnati. He did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Hit with loss despite quality start
PSan Diego Padres
June 12, 2021
Musgrove (4-6) took the loss Saturday, allowing three runs on four hits and a walk over 6.1 innings as the Padres fell 4-1 to the Mets. He struck out seven.
ANALYSIS
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Whiffs 10 in loss
PSan Diego Padres
June 6, 2021
Musgrove (4-5) lost Saturday's 4-0 game against the Mets, going five innings and allowing three runs on eight hits and a walk with 10 strikeouts.
ANALYSIS
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Excellent in relief outing
PSan Diego Padres
May 30, 2021
Musgrove pitched five scoreless innings, allowing just a hit-by-pitch while striking out three in Sunday's loss to Houston. He did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Early exit Tuesday
PSan Diego Padres
May 26, 2021
Musgrove didn't factor into the decision in Tuesday's 7-1 win over the Brewers, allowing one hit and one walk over 4.2 scoreless innings while striking out six.
ANALYSIS
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