Joe Musgrove
Joe Musgrove
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
San Diego Padres
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Musgrove's 3.82 FIP in 2019 indicated that he deserved better than his 4.44 ERA. As it turns out, that number was a near-perfect estimation of his ERA in 2020, which came in at 3.86 in eight starts, a number cut short by a spell on the injured list due to triceps inflammation. For the fourth consecutive year, Musgrove's FIP beat his ERA, coming in at a career-low 3.42. His underlying numbers looked like they belonged to an entirely different pitcher than who he was in his first four seasons. His K% sat in a very narrow band between 20.6% and 21.9% in those years before shooting up to 33.1% in 2020. That did come with some control problems, as he posted a 9.6 BB%, well above his previous career high of 6.3%, though he also produced a career-high 48.4% groundball rate. The good here definitely outweighs the bad, and while the sample was quite small, Musgrove looks more interesting than ever heading into 2021. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#137
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $4.45 million contract with the Pirates in January of 2021. Traded to the Padres in January of 2021.
Sent to San Diego
PSan Diego Padres
January 18, 2021
Musgrove was sent from the Pirates to the Padres as part of a three-team deal which sent Joey Lucchesi to the Mets and a package of prospects to the Pirates, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
The Padres evidently believe there's no such thing as too much pitching, as they've now added Musgrove, Blake Snell and Yu Darvish all in the same offseason. Musgrove may not be quite at the level of that pair, but he's coming off a strong season which saw him strike out 33.1 percent of opposing batters, smashing his previous career high of 21.9 percent, en route to a 3.86 ERA. He should see far more chances for wins for the rapidly improving Padres than he would have seen in Pittsburgh.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
2019
2018
2017
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
84
Last 10 Games
84
Last 5 Games
80
How many pitches does Joe Musgrove generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Joe Musgrove generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-35%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-16%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .260 664 134 40 157 43 8 20
Since 2018vs Right .241 706 178 38 157 33 1 18
2020vs Left .183 98 31 12 15 4 1 3
2020vs Right .281 68 24 4 18 5 0 2
2019vs Left .270 343 65 15 86 27 5 11
2019vs Right .239 375 92 24 82 21 0 10
2018vs Left .277 223 38 13 56 12 2 6
2018vs Right .233 263 62 10 57 7 1 6
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-7%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-69%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-27%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-8%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 4.47 1.21 173.1 9 13 0 8.9 2.1 1.2
Since 2018Away 4.16 1.23 145.0 8 13 0 8.1 2.3 0.9
2020Home 2.41 1.02 18.2 0 2 0 13.5 2.9 1.0
2020Away 7.71 1.86 14.0 0 3 0 10.9 5.8 1.9
2019Home 5.09 1.21 88.1 5 6 0 8.5 1.8 1.5
2019Away 3.73 1.22 82.0 6 6 0 8.1 2.3 0.7
2018Home 4.21 1.27 66.1 4 5 0 8.1 2.2 0.9
2018Away 3.86 1.06 49.0 2 4 0 7.3 1.3 0.9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Joe Musgrove compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.44
 
K/9
12.5
 
BB/9
3.6
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
92.5 mph
 
ERA
3.86
 
WHIP
1.24
 
BABIP
.330
 
GB/FB
1.63
 
Left On Base
76.2%
 
Exit Velocity
78.2 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
2.1%
 
Spin Rate
2449 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
18.5%
 
Swinging Strike
14.2%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Joe Musgrove
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4 days ago
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Bernie on the Scene: Pirates Take the Fast Track to 'Meh'
25 days ago
Bernie Pleskoff looks at what the Pirates' recent acquisitions mean for the organization, and for fantasy owners. Spoiler alert: he's not optimistic.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Musgrove's baseline skills look better than a pitcher who ended up with a 4.44 ERA. Last season marked the second consecutive year where Musgrove's FIP was at least half a run lower than his ERA, as he and the Pirates struggled to strand baserunners. He allowed four or more earned runs in nine of his 31 outings, and had a 7.17 ERA the third time through a lineup. His slider took a big step forward in 2019 in terms of pitch value, but it did not have a sufficient supporting cast despite his fastball spin rate being in the 80th percentile league-wide. Last season was the first with a significant workload for Musgrove, but the overall results did not look much different from previous efforts. This feels like yet another example of the team's strategy holding back a talented arm, so perhaps the change in pitching coach may lead to a different path forward for Musgrove. The skills are there for better results.
Musgrove was limited by injuries but performed at a high level between DL stints, creating some excitement heading into 2019. After turning the page on a shoulder issue, Musgrove made his Pirates debut May 20 and blanked the Cardinals over seven innings. A finger infection sidelined Musgrove again in July, but he returned to post an even 1.0 BB/9 in 62.1 innings after the break, lowering his walk rate to just 4.7% for the season. His 20.6 K% was underwhelming, though an 11.4% swinging-strike rate and an excellent 68.3% first-pitch-strike rate hint at room for growth in that department. The Pirates were forced to shut Musgrove down early and sent him for surgery to repair his right abdominal wall and to heal a stress reaction in his pelvic bone, but he was expected to have a relatively normal offseason. There's no doubt that Musgrove will have a rotation spot when healthy. The command is there for him to take his performance to the next level.
For some, it is a tale of two halves. For Musgrove, it was a tale of two roles. As a starter, Musgrove posted a 6.12 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP. After being demoted to the bullpen, he registered a sparkling 1.44 ERA with a stingy 0.86 WHIP. Sometimes, this is just happenstance, with regression occurring after the role change, not because of it. However, in this instance, Musgrove increased the use of his fastball (adding three mph), slider and cutter while barely throwing his sinker and curveball. The results were astounding, as Musgrove's swinging-strike rate gained three percentage points, while his walks and homers dropped significantly. Focusing on homers, as a starter, Musgrove surrendered 16 in just 78 innings compared to only two in 31.1 frames out of the bullpen. Just when it seemed he was poised to become one of the useful non-closer fantasy relievers in the Chris Devenski or Chad Green mold, Musgrove was dealt to the Pirates as part of the Gerrit Cole trade. He will return to starting in Pittsburgh, and more growing pains should be expected.
Musgrove excelled at the upper levels of the minor leagues in 2016, earning a look in the Astros' rotation over the final two months. Aside from one eight-run blowup at Baltimore, Musgrove was mostly impressive as he was able to maintain a good walk rate against more advance hitters while continuing to miss bats at a strong clip. His 4.23 FIP suggests he may have overachieved slightly in the ratio categories, but command and control give Musgrove a nice floor as he enters his age-24 season and continues along the major-league learning curve. The Astros' signing of Charlie Morton and a potential role change for Chris Devenski cloud Musgrove's status somewhat, but there are health concerns at the top of the rotation, and Musgrove should serve as the top fill-in if he misses out on a rotation spot out of camp. He's more than an AL-only consideration.
Musgrove, Toronto's first pick in the compensation round of the 2011 draft (46th overall), was acquired by the Astros in 2012 and has spent the past four years in the lower levels of their minor league system. His stock has finally started to rise, however, as he opened 2015 with Low-A Quad Cities and finished the year at Double-A Corpus Christi. Between three levels last season, he appeared In 19 games (14 starts) and went 12-1 with a 1.88 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 99:8 K:BB ratio over 100.2 innings. The 23-year-old right-hander sports a mid-to-low 90s fastball, plus slider and plus-plus command, but his future as a big league starter or reliever is unclear. He's likely to return to Corpus Christi or open 2016 with Triple-A Fresno.
More Fantasy News
Comes to terms with Pirates
PPittsburgh Pirates
January 15, 2021
Musgrove agreed to a one-year, $4.45 million contract with the Pirates on Friday, avoiding arbitration.
ANALYSIS
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Dominant over seven innings
PPittsburgh Pirates
September 26, 2020
Musgrove (1-5) pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing three hits and a walk while striking out 10 in Saturday's win over Cleveland.
ANALYSIS
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Punches out 11 in no-decision
PPittsburgh Pirates
September 20, 2020
Musgrove tossed six scoreless innings in Sunday's loss to the Cardinals, allowing three hits and a walk while striking out 11. He did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Fans eight in loss
PPittsburgh Pirates
September 15, 2020
Musgrove (0-5) took the loss Tuesday in Cincinnati after allowing four runs on six hits with eight strikeouts and one walk over five innings.
ANALYSIS
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Five strikeouts in short outing
PPittsburgh Pirates
September 8, 2020
Musgrove allowed three hits and two walks while striking out five across four scoreless innings Tuesday against the White Sox. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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