Tyler O'Neill
26-Year-Old OutfielderOF
2021 Fantasy Outlook
O'Neill is an enigma. Physically, he screams athlete. He has a lot of raw power and speed to spare and looks like he could play slot receiver in the NFL. Those tools have yet to translate into much on the stat sheet as through 450 career PA; he has struck out 34.0% of the time and posted a .229/.291/.422 slash line. On the positive side, both his walk rate and strikeout rate have improved in each of his three seasons at the big-league level, but there is still too much swing-and-miss in his game. In 2020 we saw him rather overmatched at the plate, particularly against the fastball (.155 BA), and breaking balls (.186) continue to be a problem. The Cardinals traded away Tommy Pham and Randy Arozarena in recent seasons to help clear a path for O'Neill, so they hope he continues to improve at the plate to close the gorge between his tools and his production. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#401
ADP
Remains hot in Sunday's win
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
September 20, 2021
O'Neill went 1-for-2 with an RBI single, two walks, a stolen base and three runs in a win over the Padres on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
Less than 24 hours after blasting a go-ahead two-run home run, O'Neill flashed the small ball part of his game Sunday while serving as a thorn in the side of Padres pitching throughout the afternoon. The versatile slugger extended his hitting streak to eight games with Sunday's box-score-stuffing performance, pushing his season slash line to an outstanding .282/.353/.536 and bumping his increasingly impressive steals tally to 13 across 17 attempts.
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Batting Stats
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2018
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
19
35
16
14
9
1
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
5
5
10
6
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+3%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+18%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+46%
OPS vs RHP
2019
 
 
+13%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019vs Left .829 142 18 5 14 2 .264 .366 .463
Since 2019vs Right .801 648 97 35 88 14 .257 .319 .481
2021vs Left 1.013 86 13 5 9 1 .296 .407 .606
2021vs Right .856 403 65 23 58 12 .277 .340 .516
2020vs Left .468 27 2 0 5 1 .167 .259 .208
2020vs Right .681 123 17 7 14 1 .183 .268 .413
2019vs Left .653 29 3 0 0 0 .269 .345 .308
2019vs Right .738 122 15 5 16 1 .261 .303 .435
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+12%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+3%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+28%
OPS on Road
2019
 
 
+90%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019Home .850 372 55 19 48 9 .281 .355 .495
Since 2019Away .759 422 60 21 54 7 .236 .301 .458
2021Home .894 244 42 13 30 8 .293 .369 .526
2021Away .871 245 36 15 37 5 .268 .335 .536
2020Home .537 65 4 2 6 1 .172 .262 .276
2020Away .689 89 15 5 13 1 .177 .258 .430
2019Home 1.000 63 9 4 12 0 .345 .397 .603
2019Away .527 88 9 1 4 1 .205 .250 .277
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Stat Review
How does Tyler O'Neill compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.24
 
BB Rate
7.8%
 
K Rate
32.1%
 
BABIP
.370
 
ISO
.251
 
AVG
.280
 
OBP
.352
 
SLG
.531
 
OPS
.883
 
wOBA
.382
 
Exit Velocity
83.9 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
42.5%
 
Barrels/PA
10.7%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Tyler O'Neill
MLB Barometer: 2021 All-Risers Team
2 days ago
Erik Halterman uses this week’s column to talk about players who have impressed him the most this year, including A’s first baseman Matt Olson.
DraftKings MLB: Saturday Breakdown
4 days ago
Christopher Olson says Lance Lynn represents an excellent choice considering his modest salary and matchup against the Rangers.
FanDuel MLB: Saturday Targets
4 days ago
Lance McCullers comes at a reasonable discount, plus he's gone for 40 plus FanDuel points in consecutive outings and at least 29 in five of his last six.
DraftKings MLB: Friday Breakdown
5 days ago
Zack Wheeler has been locked in for most of the season and should have a good game against the Mets.
Collette Calls: Dalbec Deep Dive
7 days ago
Jason Collette analyzes the rise of Bobby Dalbec and whether fantasy managers can count on him in 2022.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
O'Neill was slowed by a number of injuries during the 2019 campaign, and as a result, he was limited to 60 major-league contests. During that span, he hit .262 with five home runs and 16 RBI, though he struck out at an alarming rate (35.1 K%) and finished with a 91 wRC+. He also walked in just 6.6% of his plate appearances. Oddly enough, O'Neill showcased more power against right-handed pitching, as all five of his long balls came against right-handers. O'Neill's sample size in the big leagues is still relatively small at this point, but he continues to struggle with plate discipline along with maintaining good health over the course of a major-league season. Taking into consideration the depth that the Cardinals currently have in the outfield, the 24-year-old appears to have his work cut out for him in spring training if he's to make the Opening Day roster.
O'Neill split his time in 2018 between Triple-A Memphis and St. Louis, and certainly flashed his big-league potential with nine home runs in only 142 at-bats while showing off an impressive outfield glove. The 23-year-old has little else to prove after posting a 1.078 OPS at Triple-A, but it remains to be seen if that success will translate to the majors. The big issue is his plate discipline. He posted a 40.1 K% and 4.9 BB% with the Cardinals. It was obviously a small sample size, but his strikeout rate ranked third worst in MLB among hitters with 100-plus PA, behind only Drew Robinson and Brett Phillips. Players like Aaron Judge have famously overcome similarly rough debuts, and O'Neill won't turn 24 until June 22. He will certainly get a chance to showcase himself come spring training, and has as much raw power as anyone on the roster. However, the Cardinals' outfield depth means he may be ticketed for Triple-A again to start the season.
The Cardinals netted O'Neill from Seattle for a soft-tossing southpaw (Marco Gonzales) who brings a 5.47 MLB ERA into his age-26 season. That's a good way of contextualizing how valuable the 22-year-old slugger is. He has posted isolated power figures above .200 at every stop above rookie ball, but his .293 average (.364 BABIP) at Double-A in 2016 now looks like an extreme outlier. The power is very legitimate, but so are his swing and miss issues. He has kept his strikeout rate below 30 percent over the past two seasons, but he is the type of a player who gets to the majors and immediately strikes out roughly 35 percent of the time because there are fewer mistakes to crush and big-league pitchers will exploit the holes in his swing. Throw in the fact that the Cardinals have a heap of young big-league-ready outfielders, and it's hard to see where he fits in. If he appears in line to get regular at-bats, he will be worth rostering in deeper formats, but not before then.
O'Neill does not look the part of a top-50 prospect. He looks like he could be the body-building nephew of Ty Wigginton or Casey McGehee. Right or wrong, scouts factor in physical appearance, which is one reason why it took so long for the 5-foot-11, 210-pound corner outfielder to emerge as someone prospect hounds took seriously. Another factor that limited O'Neill's value heading into 2016 was the amount of swing-and-miss in his game. However, for the first time since he was 18 and playing in the Arizona League, he posted a strikeout rate south of 30 percent (26.1 percent). He also walked at a career-best 10.8 percent clip and sported a 152 wRC+ while playing in the neutral hitting environments of the Southern League, putting to rest any concerns that his 2015 numbers were buoyed by the thin air of the Cal League. The power is plus, the hit tool is average, and the bandwagon is starting to fill up.
After hitting 13 homers in 57 games at Low-A in 2014, O’Neill exploded for 32 big flies in 106 games with High-A Bakersfield last season. There are some flaws in his game -- namely a dubious hit tool, an abundance of swing-and-miss and uncertainty about where he is best suited to play in the field. O’Neill’s 30.5-percent K rate last season was not completely irresponsible given his game power, but if his home run production dips then that K rate would quickly become more unsavory. His .260/.316/.558 slash line can also be downgraded a bit due to the extreme hitting environments of Bakersfield and the California League in general. He stole 16 bases on 21 attempts, but at 5-foot-11, 205, double-digit steals seem unlikely. O’Neill’s overall value will ultimately hinge on his hit tool. If he can hit .240 or .250, then he could be an everyday player in left field or DH.
More Fantasy News
Homers again Saturday
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
September 19, 2021
O'Neill went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run in Saturday's 3-2 win over the Padres.
ANALYSIS
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Slugs 27th homer
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
September 18, 2021
O'Neill went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run and a walk in an 8-2 victory versus San Diego on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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Goes deep in victory
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
September 14, 2021
O'Neill went 2-for-5 with a home run, three RBI and two runs in Tuesday's victory over the Mets.
ANALYSIS
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Productive in shutout win
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
September 14, 2021
O'Neill went 2-for-4 with a walk, a stolen base and a run in a win over the Mets on Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Homers again
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
September 9, 2021
O'Neill went 1-for-4 with a solo home run during Thursday's win over the Dodgers.
ANALYSIS
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