Manuel Margot

Is the glass half empty or half full when it comes to Margot? Half empty: for the third straight season, Margot's batting average took a dive, cratering to .234. Half full: thanks to a career-best 8.6 BB%, his OBP actually jumped by 12 points over the previous season. Half empty: Margot hits a lot of weak popups, with his infield flyball rate landing north of 17% for the second consecutive season (league average is around 11%). Half full: he was in the 90th percentile in average sprint speed and swiped 20 bases in 24 attempts last season. Unfortunately, there's very little in his minor-league track record or batted-ball profile to suggest another level of power is coming, and his path to playing time has even more obstacles following a February trade to Tampa Bay. Any player capable of stealing 20-plus bases is going to be useful in this environment, but Margot's batting average and power output should be expected to remain suboptimal.

To modify Peter Parker's infamous line: with great speed comes a great responsibility to get on base to use it. Margot is still trying to figure out how to use his super power at the major-league level because he has a career .300 on-base percentage over nearly 1100 plate appearances. The other problem has been even when Margot has been on base and attempted to use his blazing speed for steals, he has been thrown out 36% of the time. He is 24 years old, and ahead of the learning curve compared to most of his peers given he already has two full seasons at the major-league level. We like to see some year-over-year growth from youngsters at this level, but the only real posiitve we have so far from him is a three-percentage-point reduction in his strikeout rate. Opposing pitchers challenge him in the strike zone taking advantage of his aggressive approach and lack of power. He is a bottom-of-the-lineup hitter until he can show some OBP skills.

Margot was thrown to the wolves as a rookie and more than held his own. Kids his age are typically in the California League playing ball; Margot was starting for one of the five major-league teams in the state while hitting leadoff. His ability to get on base is driven more by his batted ball skills rather than his ability to accept his walks (6.6 percent) which is why his OBP was low at .313 last year as a rookie. His minor-league track record shows a better knack for reaching base and utilizing his speed and that should surface more at the big-league level as he gets more experience. Expect him to return to the leadoff role and have a shot at 30 steals if he can get his OBP up closer to .350. He started the season 10-for-16 in steals, but closed it a very efficient 7-for-8, which should earn him more chances in 2018.

Margot was acquired from the Red Sox as part of the Craig Kimbrel deal in November 2015 to bring a near major-league-ready talent to the rebuilding San Diego pipeline. He continued his fast ascent through the minors, starting his age-21 season at Triple-A El Paso before earning a 10-game taste of the big leagues in late September. At the plate, Margot has shown a steady hit tool with the ability to frequently make contact (11.3 strikeout percentage at Triple-A), and his quick wrists allow him to generate more pop than his 5-foot-11 frame might suggest. He also possesses plus-plus speed, which makes him a long-term option in center field, where he has the potential to be a good defender. With El Paso, Margot went 30-for-41 on the basepaths (73.2 percent), supporting the claim that he's still in need of some polish as a base stealer. With little left to prove at Triple-A, Margot appears to be the frontrunner to open the season as the Padres' starting center fielder, and his short-term fantasy value will receive a boost if he can settle in as the team's leadoff hitter.

Margot's ascent to the major leagues continued apace in 2015, when he spent time at two levels in Boston's organization. At this rate, he'll hit Triple-A in the second half of 2016. He's still young for his level and can be overly aggressive at the plate, but has natural bat-to-ball skills and rarely strikes out (10.6 percent of plate appearances). His walk rate has remained stagnant as Margot attacks pitches early in the count, and he'll need to work on selectivity while developing an all-field approach. Margot has present doubles power and the speed for triples (nine last season). There's room for him to develop over-the-fence power, which could translate to 10-15 homers. Defensively, he's above average at the premium position. Margot is one of the game's better prospects, which is why the Padres wanted him when they traded closer Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox. He'll likely open the season as the leadoff hitter and center fielder for Double-A San Antonio.

Margot, a 19-year-old with five-tool potential, showed some promise in 2014, beginning at Low-A Greenville before an August promotion to High-A Salem. He's a blend of power and speed with advanced defense in center field. For Greenville, his bat developed over the year and he finished the year hitting .446/.492/.696 for the Drive in August. From 2013 to 2014, he increased his walk rate from 8.3% to 10.1% while dropping his strikeout rate from 18.5% to 11.5%. He's clearly improving his approach at the plate. Margot is also a threat on the basepaths, stealing a system-high 42 bases in 2014, though he needs to a better job reading pitchers. He'll likely be assigned to High-A Salem of the Carolina League, where he will be one of the younger players in 2015.

Margot's statistics didn't stand out in 2013, but the Red Sox are excited by the tools of this undrafted 18-year-old prospect. He had some successful stretches with short-season Lowell, but also had a hamstring injury that wiped out a portion of his season. Margot's body should fill out some, but he's projected to remain a center fielder and is considered a plus defender. He showed enough against older competition and we expect a full-season assignment at Low-A Greenville.