Daniel Lynch

Daniel Lynch

27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Kansas City Royals
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Lynch now has three years of major league experience under his depth, and the overall results do not tell the whole story. His 11-23 career record with a 5.18 ERA and 9.9% K-BB% are tough on the eyeballs, but he has shown improvements at times year over year. His 2023 progress was stunted by shoulder troubles which saw his strikeout rate plummet as his fastball lost nearly two miles an hour in the process. The shining star on his 2023 resume was a changeup he threw exclusively to righties that the league hit .125 against while swinging and missing 35% of the time. Lynch's current value is rock bottom and frankly, still not mixed league viable, but if his shoulder is 100 percent recovered and he can get back some of his lost velocity to pair with that changeup to righties and his slider to lefties, he may finally be able to provide some value to AL-Only fantasy managers this season. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season
From Preseason
#374
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Royals in February of 2024.
Sent down to Triple-A
PKansas City Royals  AAA
June 13, 2024
The Royals optioned Lynch to Triple-A Omaha on Thursday.
ANALYSIS
The move comes one day after Lynch allowed six runs over 6.2 innings in bulk relief in a loss to the Yankees. Kansas City's decision to send Lynch back to the minors could indicate that the club expects Michael Wacha (foot) to be ready to return from the 15-day injured list next week, but no announcement on a replacement for Lynch in the rotation has been made just yet.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
70
Last 10 Games
70
Last 5 Games
70
How many pitches does Daniel Lynch generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Daniel Lynch generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
2024
 
 
-52%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-31%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .288 130 22 13 32 4 0 2
Since 2022vs Right .271 792 149 63 193 31 2 34
2024vs Left .125 22 5 3 2 0 0 0
2024vs Right .261 77 10 5 18 3 0 6
2023vs Left .333 32 4 1 10 0 0 0
2023vs Right .230 191 30 15 40 8 1 9
2022vs Left .308 76 13 9 20 4 0 2
2022vs Right .287 524 109 43 135 20 1 19
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-38%
ERA on Road
2024
 
 
-68%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-62%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-22%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 6.39 1.53 100.0 3 7 0 7.2 3.3 1.8
Since 2022Away 3.97 1.39 106.2 4 10 0 7.7 3.3 1.4
2024Home 8.04 1.47 15.2 0 0 0 7.5 4.6 2.3
2024Away 2.57 0.71 7.0 0 0 0 2.6 0.0 2.6
2023Home 6.59 1.46 27.1 2 2 0 7.6 3.6 2.0
2023Away 2.52 1.04 25.0 1 2 0 4.0 1.8 1.1
2022Home 5.84 1.58 57.0 1 5 0 6.9 2.8 1.6
2022Away 4.58 1.57 74.2 3 8 0 9.4 4.1 1.3
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Daniel Lynch compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.88
 
K/9
6.0
 
BB/9
3.2
 
HR/9
2.4
 
Fastball
92.5 mph
 
ERA
6.35
 
WHIP
1.24
 
BABIP
.223
 
GB/FB
1.24
 
Left On Base
56.1%
 
Exit Velocity
85.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
10.7%
 
Spin Rate
2082 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
37.7%
 
Swinging Strike
8.6%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
The Royals had one of the worst rotations in the majors last season, and unfortunately, Lynch was part of the problem there. He pitched to a 5.13 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 122:52 K:BB across 131.2 innings spanning 27 starts in his first full season. His 3.6 BB/9 stands out as the biggest issue -- he'll need to trim that down by about one walk per nine innings to really start finding effectiveness. He surrendered less than a home run per start, but hitters still tagged him for a 47.7 percent hard-hit rate. His 19.2 percent whiff rate on a 94 mph fastball that he threw nearly half of the time in 2022 simply isn't good enough. Lynch has a chance to make the rotation again in 2023, but there are improvements to be made -- with the Royals changing their pitching coach, new input could be a benefit for the southpaw.
Lynch made his major-league debut last season and made 15 starts for the Royals, and he had a 5.69 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and 55:31 K:BB across 68 innings. He entered the campaign as the organization's top pitching prospect, but his 7.7 percent K-BB% is a good indicator of his struggles in his first taste of the big leagues. The 25-year-old could begin the season at the back end of Kansas City's starting rotation, but it may require the team to employ a six-man rotation, so his role may not be stable.
Kansas City's host of prized young pitchers started to debut last season, but Lynch, who entered the year as the team's top pitching prospect remained at the alternate training site. The 6-foot-6 southpaw has more electric stuff than Brady Singer or Kris Bubic, but harnessing that stuff and developing his changeup required more time than the condensed season provided. He sits in the mid-90s with his fastball (touches 99) and already boasts a wipeout slider, so Lynch may have been called upon to debut out of the bullpen had the Royals factored into the postseason picture. He made strides with his changeup all summer and is now comfortable throwing it to same-handed hitters. The 24-year-old also throws an average curveball. If Lynch's command and changeup look ready, he should join the big-league rotation in the first half of this season.
Lynch, the 34th-overall pick in 2018, missed almost two months in the middle of the year with arm soreness, but he was very effective when healthy and finished the year strong in the Arizona Fall League. He is pretty advanced in that he throws four usable pitches (fastball and slider are plus, fringe-average changeup is his fourth-best offering) and has good command/control (7.0 BB% at High-A). However, at 6-foot-6, 190 pounds he is also very projectable with a chance to add velocity (fastball already sits 94-95 mph) and develop even better command. The wiry southpaw was one of the best pitchers in the AFL, logging a 19:4 K:BB in 14 innings while setting the stage for an assignment to Double-A for his age-23 season. As things stand, he projects to be a solid No. 3 starter, but if his curveball and changeup improve, he could be better than that. His future home park and division add to the appeal.
Royals GM Dayton Moore embraced his Atlanta Braves roots in the first draft of his full-on rebuild, selecting five pitchers in the first 58 picks. Lynch, who received an under-slot $1.6975 million bonus after getting popped with the 34th overall pick, had the best debut of those five hurlers. He was absolutely dominant over 51.1 innings in the Appy League and Sally League, with more strikeouts (61) than baserunners (53) and a 26.8 K-BB% that would have led all Low-A and High-A pitchers had he thrown enough innings to qualify. He also posted a groundball rate over 50% across both stops. A 6-foot-6, 190-pound southpaw out of Virginia, Lynch commands a plus 93-95 mph fastball, which allows him to get into favorable counts. From there, he is able to sit hitters down with a plethora of quality offspeed pitches -- his plus mid-80s slider is his best secondary offering. He should move quickly in his age-22 season, likely finishing the year at Double-A or Triple-A.
More Fantasy News
Surrenders six runs in bulk relief
PKansas City Royals  AAA
June 12, 2024
Lynch did not factor in the decision against the Yankees on Wednesday, allowing six runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out three batters over 6.2 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Following opener Wednesday
PKansas City Royals  AAA
June 11, 2024
Lynch will pitch in bulk relief behind opener Dan Altavilla on Wednesday versus the Yankees, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Blasted for eight runs
PKansas City Royals  AAA
June 7, 2024
Lynch did not factor into the decision in Friday's victory over Seattle, allowing eight runs on six hits and four walks over four innings. He struck out four.
ANALYSIS
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Slotting into rotation Friday
PKansas City Royals  AAA
June 7, 2024
Lynch is scheduled to start Friday's game against the Mariners at Kauffman Stadium.
ANALYSIS
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Called up, rejoining rotation
PKansas City Royals  AAA
June 2, 2024
The Royals recalled Lynch from Triple-A Omaha on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Early exit from rehab start
PKansas City Royals  AAA
July 7, 2022
Lynch, who is rehabbing from a finger injury left Wednesday's rehab outing early after experiencing soreness in his finger, reports Anne Rogers of MLB.com.
ANALYSIS
In his first rehab start since going on the injured list with a blister, Lynch tossed three innings and allowed two runs on five hits and three walks. Royals manager Mike Matheny did not appear worried by the soreness and declared Lynch was still "moving in the right direction." The start Wednesday lines Lynch up for a possible return Monday when Kansas City has a doubleheader with Detroit.
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