2024 Stats
W-L
5-5
ERA
3.07
WHIP
1.10
K
135
SV
0
2025 Projections
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Steele had a breakout season in 2023 but somewhat of a breakdown 2024 season when you look at him from a medical angle. The hamstring strain he incurred in his first start of the season led to him missing a month, but then left forearm soreness in late August was a scare, especially for someone who has already had Tommy John surgery. Thankfully, Steele made it back to throw two more games before the season ended, so some of the mystery around the injury was resolved. Steele continues to employ a very unusual repertoire for a starter, as he throws his four-seamer or his slider nearly 90 percent of the time. Lefties continued to have little success against him, while righties are still mostly kept at bay because Steele does not hurt himself with walks, and the use of the changeup and curve at least keep righties guessing. That combination has helped him become one of the better hard contact suppressors in the league. Nearly every indicator points in the right direction, but the health scare of September is a fresh reminder of his downside for 2025. Read Past Outlooks
Struggles in spring finale
Steele (illness) allowed seven runs on 10 hits across 3.2 innings in Tuesday's Cactus League game against the Brewers. He struck out three.
ANALYSIS
After being scratched from his scheduled start last week due to flu-like symptoms, Steele got bumped back to Tuesday and struggled with the extra time off, allowing three home runs in the short outing. The lefty finishes the spring with a rough 9.35 ERA across three appearances. Despite the poor showing in the Cactus League, Steele is slated to start the Cubs' second game of the regular season March 19 against the Dodgers in Tokyo.
After being scratched from his scheduled start last week due to flu-like symptoms, Steele got bumped back to Tuesday and struggled with the extra time off, allowing three home runs in the short outing. The lefty finishes the spring with a rough 9.35 ERA across three appearances. Despite the poor showing in the Cactus League, Steele is slated to start the Cubs' second game of the regular season March 19 against the Dodgers in Tokyo.
Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
85
Last 10 Games
83
Last 5 Games
68
How many pitches does Justin Steele generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Justin Steele generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-3%
BAA vs LHP
2024
-17%
BAA vs LHP
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2022vs Left | .233 | 108 | 29 | 76 | 9 | |||
| Since 2022vs Right | .241 | 329 | 94 | 313 | 25 | |||
| 2024vs Left | .188 | 32 | 7 | 18 | 2 | |||
| 2024vs Right | .227 | 103 | 30 | 93 | 10 | |||
| 2023vs Left | .267 | 42 | 8 | 35 | 6 | |||
| 2023vs Right | .247 | 134 | 28 | 132 | 8 | |||
| 2022vs Left | .232 | 34 | 14 | 23 | 1 | |||
| 2022vs Right | .248 | 92 | 36 | 88 | 7 | |||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | |||||||
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-16%
ERA at Home
2024
-13%
ERA on Road
| ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2022Home | 2.86 | 1.20 | 239.0 | 9.0 | 2.7 | ||||
| Since 2022Away | 3.40 | 1.20 | 188.0 | 9.5 | 2.5 | ||||
| 2024Home | 3.29 | 1.14 | 65.2 | 8.8 | 3.0 | ||||
| 2024Away | 2.87 | 1.06 | 69.0 | 9.3 | 2.0 | ||||
| 2023Home | 2.65 | 1.19 | 102.0 | 9.3 | 1.9 | ||||
| 2023Away | 3.66 | 1.15 | 71.1 | 9.0 | 1.9 | ||||
| 2022Home | 2.78 | 1.26 | 71.1 | 8.8 | 3.5 | ||||
| 2022Away | 3.78 | 1.49 | 47.2 | 10.6 | 4.2 | ||||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | ||||||||
Stat Review
How does Justin Steele compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
3.65K/9
9.0BB/9
2.5HR/9
0.8Fastball
91.6 mphERA
3.07WHIP
1.10BABIP
.288GB/FB
1.33Left On Base
71.6%Exit Velocity
80.8 mphBarrels/BBE
2.8%Spin Rate
2485 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
21.5%Swinging Strike
10.9%Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Rankings from four RotoWire experts are combined into a consensus top-300, but there's no consensus about who should occupy the top spot.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2016
There was a lot to like with Steele coming into the 2023 season as a pitcher who kept the ball in the yard, threw a lot of strikes and generated a fair number of whiffs. Our 2023 outlook even said he could be in store for a nice fantasy season, but who saw him doubling his career win total and continuing the positive peripheral growth for a third consecutive season? If not for Blake Snell's amazing run or all of Spencer Strider's strikeouts and wins, Steele could have garnered more supporters for a Cy Young argument with the season he had. So what if he does not have the velocity of other pitchers when he can match results with the best of them? The amazing part is he does this using two pitches 97% of the time, which does leave him exposed to the third-time-through penalty. He may never be a 200-inning arm, but Steele is a pitcher on the rise approaching frontline status.
More Fantasy News
Starting Tuesday's game
Steele (illness) will start Tuesday's Cactus League game against the Brewers.
ANALYSIS
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Set to throw Friday
Steele (illness) is feeling better and will get some throwing in at the Cubs' spring training complex Friday, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Scratched with illness
Steele was scratched from his scheduled start Thursday due to flu-like symptoms, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Might throw changeup more
Steele could incorporate his changeup more often in 2025 after throwing it 3.3 percent of the time last season, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Sharp in spring debut
Steele tossed two scoreless innings in Saturday's Cactus League game against the White Sox. He allowed two hits and struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Earning 2022 rotation spot?
Steele pitched seven scoreless innings in a win Thursday and could be solidifying his spot in next season's rotation.
ANALYSIS
The Cubs have plenty of question marks behind ace Kyle Hendricks, and Steele has flashed some potential, though he's also had his share of rough outings. The lefty at least should have a chance at earning a rotation spot heading into next season depending on what the team does in free agency.
The Cubs have plenty of question marks behind ace Kyle Hendricks, and Steele has flashed some potential, though he's also had his share of rough outings. The lefty at least should have a chance at earning a rotation spot heading into next season depending on what the team does in free agency.