Kyle Lewis

Lewis came out of the gate red hot, peaking at .368/.456/.585 a month into the season. He posted a .150/.265/.280 slash the final month but hung on to take home AL Rookie of the Year honors. The primary difference between the two halves was contact as Lewis fanned at a 22.4% clip early and 36.8% pace late, though it's encouraging he maintained a 14% walk rate throughout both stretches. While natural skills growth could soften the blow, Lewis' 40th percentile average exit velocity and 30th percentile hard-hit rate do not support his 2020 marks of a .341 BABIP and 22.0% HR/FB. After slugging 17 homers in his first 317 PA, Lewis appears to be on a 30-homer-per-season track and he may settle there. To do so, he'll need to be more consistent with his contact and hit the ball with more authority. The tools are there, and the early market considers it a foregone conclusion, but it's not.

Lewis did his best Austin Riley/Aristides Aquino impression after getting the call Sept. 9, launching six homers in his first 10 big-league games. And like those aforementioned names, Lewis then hit the skids, though over a much smaller sample. In total, Lewis was 27% better than league average during his run in September, but he had a strikeout rate pushing 40% and a walk rate of just 4%. His walk rate was much better at Double-A -- in the double digits -- but his K-rate was still close to 30% against Double-A arms. This level of swing and miss should give you pause. Lewis has squeezed a lot out of his limited contact in recent years, not just during his time with the big club, but there's basically no floor to stand on here. The good thing is that in the range where Lewis will be going in 2020 redraft leagues, floor isn't all that important. Look for Lewis to compete for a starting role in camp.

A variety of factors converged for Lewis’ 2017 to be pretty underwhelming, as he joined the other top outfielders from the 2016 draft (Mickey Moniak, Corey Ray, Blake Rutherford) who saw their dynasty-league stock take a significant hit. He returned from ACL reconstruction surgery in mid June, but missed time at several points in the season with soreness in his surgically repaired right knee, and when he played, he clearly didn’t have the same explosiveness in his lower half. Lewis was also sent straight to High-A after never playing above short-season ball, so the aggressive jump in competition didn’t help matters. It could simply be chalked up as a lost season, but a 22-year-old hitter with barely any full-season success on his resume is a tough sell in shallower leagues. Plus-plus raw power remains, but he faces an uphill battle to renew the promise of a future middle-of-the-order right fielder. He tweaked his knee again and was sent home from the Arizona Fall League, so health concerns persist.

The Mariners selected Lewis, the college hitter with the most realistic in-game power in the class, with the 11th overall pick in the 2016 draft. He got off to a great start to his career before everything came to a screeching halt in late July. He required ACL reconstruction surgery after suffering a horrific right knee injury that also included tears to his medial and lateral meniscus during a slide in a game for short-season Everett. In the 20 games before the injury, Lewis hit .364 with a 1.114 OPS and was likely on the verge of a promotion to Low-A Clinton. His offseason recovery is on track, and he is expected to be back to full strength in July or August of this season. There will be some rust to knock off, and he may have less than two months of minor league game action waiting for him when he returns, so 2017 could amount to a lost season. However, the upside of a cleanup-hitting outfielder with an all-fields approach remains, and dynasty league owners would be wise to take the long view.