Marcus Stroman

There's not much to say about Stroman's 2020 campaign, as it never got the chance to get off the ground. He missed the start of the season with a calf strain before opting out in mid-August right when it looked like he was about to return. He accepted a qualifying offer from the Mets in November, leaving him set to do in 2021 what he was expected to do in 2020. Just what exactly those expectations should be isn't entirely clear, however. His ERAs in his last three seasons (3.09, 5.54 and 3.22) have been all over the place, and taking a full year off from pitching doesn't exactly clarify things. He's actually produced a FIP in a narrow band between 3.71 and 3.91 in each of the last four seasons, however, and an ERA in that range would make him perfectly serviceable for both fantasy players and the Mets. He doesn't offer a whole lot else, though, as his unimpressive 20.5 K% in 2019 was his highest since 2014.

After recording a 2.96 ERA and 99:35 K:BB over the first half of the season, Stroman was traded to the Mets at the deadline and slotted into the team's talented rotation. Stroman's surface numbers suffered after the move but he performed well enough in New York, recording a 60:23 K:BB en route to a 20.5 K% on the year that was his highest since his rookie season. For the season, the right-hander carried a 10.1% swinging-strike rate, the highest rate of his career. He struggled to limit home runs after the trade, allowing nine in his final 11 starts in 2019, coinciding with a dip in groundball rate (from 56.3% to 48.3%). Stroman's BB% ticked up in Queens, as did his opponents' BABIP, from .293 to .337. The Mets had a bottom-five defense in MLB last season and they have not upgraded this winter, so Stroman will continue to contend with a high hit rate as a groundball pitcher.

Stroman had his worst professional season in a 2018, a year marred by two trips to the disabled list (shoulder fatigue and a blister on his pitching hand). The extreme groundballer (62.1 GB% in 2018) endured miserable results when on the field, though the peripherals and estimators point to a lot of bad luck. His ERA-minus-FIP came in at 1.63, one of the highest among starters with 100-plus innings, and his 3.91 FIP nearly matched what he did in 2017, when he had a 3.09 ERA. Considering all the contact Stroman allows -- he has never posted a K/9 higher than 7.7 (2014) -- it's only natural that the results would fluctuate more than they do for most pitchers. Determine whether you can buy this volatility with the hope of him repeating 2017 and 2014, not 2016 and 2018. The best part about his 2019: expectations will be subterranean, so fantasy players in position to take on risk could snatch him at a clearance rate.

Stroman built on a strong finish to 2016 to become the Blue Jays' staff ace last season after Aaron Sanchez battled persistent blister problems. Rather than leaning on his cutter as an out pitch as he had earlier in his career, Stroman instead increased the usage of his fastball and slider, with both pitches yielding favorable results. Stroman's diverse arsenal kept hitters off balance and generated plenty of weak contact, with his 62.1 percent GB% pacing all qualified pitchers. His ability to induce groundouts and avoid the home-run ball offers optimism that Stroman will remain an asset in ERA, despite his meager strikeout rate and the 3.90 FIP he posted in 2017 pointing to some regression in that area. Since Stroman is just 26 years old, it wouldn't be unprecedented if he added more strikeouts to his ledger to stave off an ERA decline, but his approach worked so well for him last season, it seems unlikely he would deviate from a successful formula.

Stroman entered 2016 with high expectations, and in hindsight, those expectations were probably unfair for a 25-year-old who made just four starts in 2015 following ACL surgery. It took Stroman time to get his bearings, but he demonstrated growth as the season wore on, managing a 3.68 ERA post All-Star break versus a 4.89 ERA in the first half. He also saw a significant uptick in strikeout rate after the break, from 16.9 percent to 22.7 percent, as he used his cutter more as an out pitch. Of course, it's all about the groundball with Stroman, and indeed his 60.1 percent groundball rate was the highest among qualified starters. Stroman has immense talent and could take a leap forward if he can continue to increase his strikeout rate.

When Stroman tore his ACL in early March, his season was declared over before it ever began and no one seemed to quibble with that. . . except Stroman. He made the best of a bad break. He went back to Duke to finish off his degree, but also got with the medical staff there for an aggressive rehab on the knee. All of a sudden there were reports that he could contribute late in the season, maybe as a reliever. Not only did he start, but he was really good. His swing-and-miss stuff wasn’t quite there, but he ramped the groundball rate up to 64 percent to cover. The strikeouts might be more of a slow climb as he uses the command of his deep arsenal (5 pitches all w/at least 10% usage) to keep the ball down and mow down hitters, but the swing-and-miss upside is definitely there. With all of 158 MLB innings on his arm, the Jays might not be ready for 200-plus-inning season, but even 180 from him has big potential.

The 5-foot-9 right-hander spent most of his age-23 season as the most effective starter in the Blue Jays’ rotation. After graduating from Triple-A Buffalo and Toronto’s bullpen, Stroman compiled a 3.29 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 103:27 K:BB ratio in 120.1 innings as a starter in his debut season in the big leagues. Were it not for Jose Abreu, Stroman would have had a legitimate case to be the American League Rookie of the Year. He relied heavily on his mid-90s fastball, and only used his deadly 88-mph slider roughly 7.5% of the time. That plus-plus offering generated a 17.6% whiff rate and a 63.2% groundball rate and could be a major weapon if he unleashes it more often in his second season. Considering his fielding independent numbers (2.84 FIP, 3.17 xFIP) and the addition of defensive wiz Russell Martin behind the plate, there was reason to expect an even better 2015 out of Stroman, but he suffered a torn ACL during fielding drills in March and is expected to miss the entire season as a result.

A first-round pick in the 2012 MLB Draft, Stroman put together a fantastic 2013 campaign for Double-A New Hampshire after serving a 50-game drug suspension to start the season. His 3.30 ERA was backed by 10.4 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 rates, and he even finished on a high note with an 11-strikeout gem in his final start. The 5-foot-9 Stroman boasts a mid-90s fastball with plus command, and he is one of the top prospects in the Toronto organization, despite murmurs that he may eventually wind up in the bullpen. Having already proven his merit at the Double-A level, Stroman will likely join the starting rotation at Triple-A Buffalo to open 2014. Don't be surprised if he earns his first call-up before the end of the year.

Stroman was selected 22nd overall by the Blue Jays in the 2012 draft and the general thought was that he would move quickly through the Jays’ system. After 19 minor league relief innings, posting a 3.26 ERA over two levels, Stroman was suspended 50 games for violating baseball’s minor league drug program. After the completion of his suspension, he will start 2013 in the minors, but could find his way into Toronto’s bullpen if he pitches well.