Triston McKenzie

Triston McKenzie

26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Cleveland Guardians
2024 Fantasy Outlook
McKenzie entrenched his place in Cleveland's rotation in 2022 with a 2.96 ERA in 30 starts, but his 2023 campaign was derailed by injuries. He suffered a teres major muscle strain in late March that prevented him from making his season debut until June, and he made just two appearances before returning to the injured list with a partially torn UCL in his right elbow. Tommy John surgery was fortunately avoided, and he rejoined Cleveland's rotation for two starts down the stretch. McKenzie ended 2023 healthy and should have a normal offseason, but he could face some workload limitations while coming off a lost year. His numbers (5.06 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 16:13 K:BB) aren't worth dissecting much given the circumstances, and he's a prime rebound candidate in 2024. However, that upside is accompanied by plenty of risk given his multiple arm injuries last year. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#227
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $1.6 million contract with the Guardians in January of 2024.
Healthy heading into camp
PCleveland Guardians
January 22, 2024
McKenzie said at the Guardians' FanFest event Saturday that he's "feeling great" physically, Leah Doherty of Cleveland 19 News reports.
ANALYSIS
McKenzie was limited to just four starts for the Guardians in 2023 due to shoulder and elbow problems, but he finished the season healthy and has thrown without issue this winter. The right-hander noted that he's thrown more this offseason than he normally would in order to make up for lost time. McKenzie represents a buy-low option for fantasy managers, but he will remain a health risk heading into 2024.
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Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
75
Last 10 Games
75
Last 5 Games
75
How many pitches does Triston McKenzie generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Triston McKenzie generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-100%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-5%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-8%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2021vs Left .191 575 154 60 97 21 0 18
Since 2021vs Right .204 734 188 55 137 31 3 29
2023vs Left .000 27 4 10 0 0 0 0
2023vs Right .279 46 12 3 12 4 1 1
2022vs Left .194 311 87 22 55 9 0 10
2022vs Right .205 430 103 22 83 20 2 15
2021vs Left .203 237 63 28 42 12 0 8
2021vs Right .186 258 73 30 42 7 0 13
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-12%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-91%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-11%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-8%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2021Home 4.07 1.11 143.2 6 9 0 10.5 3.3 1.0
Since 2021Away 3.58 1.03 183.2 10 14 0 8.6 3.0 1.5
2023Home 10.80 2.55 6.2 0 2 0 6.8 12.2 1.4
2023Away 0.96 0.86 9.1 0 1 0 10.6 3.9 0.0
2022Home 2.77 0.90 81.1 5 3 0 10.6 1.8 0.8
2022Away 3.11 0.99 110.0 6 8 0 7.7 2.3 1.5
2021Home 5.17 1.24 55.2 1 4 0 10.7 4.5 1.3
2021Away 4.76 1.13 64.1 4 5 0 9.8 4.2 1.8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Triston McKenzie compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.23
 
K/9
9.0
 
BB/9
7.3
 
HR/9
0.6
 
Fastball
92.4 mph
 
ERA
5.06
 
WHIP
1.56
 
BABIP
.274
 
GB/FB
0.75
 
Left On Base
67.8%
 
Exit Velocity
83.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.2%
 
Spin Rate
2244 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
22.1%
 
Swinging Strike
11.3%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
McKenzie came out of 2021 with a mixed bag of results which gave us a good idea of what 2022 could be with better breaks. McKenzie's breaking balls were unhittable in 2021, but the league jumped all over his fastball when he was behind in the count. The task for McKenzie coming into 2022 was to get ahead in the count more frequently so he could attack batters with the slider and curveball, and he was up to the task as he nearly cut his walk rate in half while giving up little in the strikeout area en route to a much improved sophomore campaign. McKenzie's curveball is still a ridiculous pitch as the league hit .120 off it with a 45% whiff rate, but was able to hit the slider more this season to the tune of a .271 average with a noticeable reduction in his whiff rate. McKenzie had a show-me changeup in 2021 which he shelved this past season as he chose to attack lefties and righties with the same three pitches. Neither hit him that well, but righties did have 15 of the 25 homers against him. It is unlikely he brings the changeup back, but now the concern for the tall lanky youngster is repeating a big workload season as he went from 120 innings to working over 200 innings last season when factoring in the postseason work.
McKenzie had risks coming into 2021 which, in hindsight, played out as expected. The long-and-lanky righty had but one full season of development work on the farm, but flashes of brilliance in 2020 elevated his fantasy stock last year, setting many up for disappointment. McKenzie maintained his ability to strike hitters out with a 27.5 K% and held the opposition to a .194 batting average, but an 11.7 BB% along with a 1.6 HR/9 tipped the scales to an unsightly 4.95 ERA. It isn't often we see a 4.95 ERA associated with a pitcher that has a high strikeout rate and a sub-.200 opponents' average, but McKenzie's mistakes were command-driven, and his mistakes got punished. The upside is still there, but so is his thin frame, so temper any expectations of him exceeding 150 innings this season. There will still be bumps in the road, but the pieces for success are here.
McKenzie missed all 2019 (back injury) and two months in 2018 (forearm injury), so it was stunning to see him skip over Triple-A completely and strike out 10 while allowing one run in six innings in his late-August MLB debut. He hadn't even teased us with any big-league spring training starts. That celebrated debut proved to be the rail-thin righty's high water mark, as his innings per start, fastball velocity and effectiveness all trended down before a move to the bullpen at the end of the season. Durability remains a long-term concern, and the fact he has thrown 35 innings (including the postseason) in the past two years makes it hard to project close to a full season's worth of starts in 2021. Unless he regains the mid-90s velocity he showed in his first start, he might not have a plus pitch (his curveball is close), but he has a strong four-pitch mix and throws enough strikes to stick as a starter.
When McKenzie went down in early March with an upper-back strain, it was expected that he would be able to ramp back up in about six weeks. He never ended up pitching in a competitive setting in 2019. McKenzie also missed the first two months of 2018 with a forearm injury, so that leaves him with a total of 90.2 innings pitched over the past two years. The missed time obviously dings his shine, but the Indians were never going to lose McKenzie to the Rule 5 draft -- his addition to the 40-man roster in November was elementary. His fastball and curveball have both shown tremendous potential, McKenzie can change speeds and he gets good marks for command. The Indians will just be hoping for better health in 2020.
There were some minor developments in 2018, but for the most part the story with McKenzie has not changed. No. 2/3 starter upside is still apparent and he is still capable of hiding behind a light pole. Forearm soreness sidelined him for the first two months, but once he built up his workload to 90-plus pitches on July 3, he was his dominant self over his final 11 starts (2.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 65 strikeouts in 64.2 innings). McKenzie's strikeout rate dipped below 32% (to 24%) for the first time since he was in short-season ball in 2016, but he threw a lot of strikes and held opposing batters to a .191 AVG. While his wiry 6-foot-5, 165-pound frame leaves many questioning whether he can handle a starter's workload, his length allows him to get excellent extension on his high-spin 92-94 mph fastball. He also boasts a plus curveball and improving changeup. The Indians have impressive rotation depth, but McKenzie will be waiting at Triple-A if a need arises.
On paper, McKenzie looks like a future frontline starter. His 186 strikeouts ranked second in the minors behind Alec Hansen, who is three years older than McKenzie and did a lot of his stat padding at Low-A. While he has a legitimate chance to actualize his No. 1 starter potential, McKenzie needs to add strength to his slender frame in order to maintain plus velocity on his fastball deep into outings. His curveball is a true putaway pitch, and his changeup shows signs of getting there as well. He also has a chance to have plus command by the time he reaches the majors, so there are a lot of future 60s on his scouting report. McKenzie will be inhaling calories this offseason in an attempt to show up to camp with a sturdier build. There are those who won't buy into his frontline potential until he shows it over a full season in the majors, and he is at least a year away from getting that opportunity.
It is hard to watch McKenzie pitch or look at his production relative to age and level and not get a little hyperbolic when projecting what he will be in five or six years. He pitches with a grace and precision that is uncommon for young pitchers with his long levers and high-end stuff. The fastball is more of a low-90s mph offering presently, but his 6-foot-5, 165-pound frame screams projection, and most evaluators anticipate a velocity jump as he matures. As with most 19-year-old hurlers, his changeup is still a work in progress, but his curveball is already a weapon, and both pitches have the potential to be plus offerings in time. Perhaps even more impressive than his arsenal is how well he harnesses it, surrendering just 62 hits and 25 walks through 95.1 innings of professional ball. He could spend most of his age-19 season pitching at High-A Lynchburg, and with another big year he will be poised to enter 2018 as one of the top five pitching prospects in the game.
More Fantasy News
Settles with Guardians
PCleveland Guardians
January 11, 2024
McKenzie signed a one-year, $1.6 million contract with the Guardians on Thursday to avoid arbitration, Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Allows one run in loss
PCleveland Guardians
October 1, 2023
McKenzie (0-3) took the loss Saturday, allowing one run on three hits and three walks over 4.1 innings against the Tigers. He struck out one.
ANALYSIS
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Struggles with command in return
PCleveland Guardians
September 24, 2023
McKenzie (0-2) took the loss Sunday, allowing three runs on one hit, six walks and no strikeouts over 1.2 innings against the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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Reinstated for Sunday's start
PCleveland Guardians
September 24, 2023
McKenzie (elbow) was activated from the 60-day injured list ahead of his start Sunday against the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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In line to start Sunday
PCleveland Guardians
Elbow
September 23, 2023
McKenzie (elbow) will be activated from the 60-day injured list to start Sunday's game against the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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