The Z Files: Looking For Breakouts

There's a lot of theories with respect to this topic. Old school fantasy players preach safety, likely based on the formats played where roster movement was limited. With the advent of reserve lists, waivers, free agent pickups and frequent roster moves, more risk was introduced into the game. Some high stakes enthusiasts preach "safe early, take shots late" while others embrace risk, especially if the goal is to win an overall competition.

Regardless of the philosophy, we're all looking for the same thing: players returning a positive return on investment via outperforming expectations. You may be surprised how small that pool of players is.

Let concentrate on homers and steals for hitters. The number of hitters that improve, decline and stay the same will be determined over a six-year spread. Appropriate filters have been applied to each data set to render them practical. That is, no one cares if Miguel Cabrera improved in steals or Ben Revere hit more homers than last season, so each player must prorate to 10 homers or steals in 500 plate appearances. Additionally, since everything is distilled down to per plate appearance, a minimum of 200 trips to the dish for the player to be included in each season is necessary. To account for changing league totals, data was expressed as an index, compared to the average of each season's totals.

There needs to be some definition for better, worse and the same. This is purely empirical; 10 percent was chosen as the filter. This puts the 'same' range of a 30-home run hitter to be between 27 and 33, which seems reasonable. To reiterate, we're not looking at raw numbers but skills, so the results tally the number of hitter whose indexed per-PA appearance numbers were 10 percent better or worse than the previous season.

Here's the results for homers, spanning the 2011-2016 seasons:

Another way to look at it: we're all trying to avoid the 40 percent or so of hitters that fail to come within 10 percent of their power expectations. It follows that failing to produce homers likely impacts runs and RBI as well. So really, we're all trying to:

1. Avoid the 40 percent busts
2. Find the balance between floor and ceiling for the remaining 60 percent.

To be honest, breaking the above down into segments of the player pool would be useful when mapping out a strategy, but is beyond the scope of this essay. You folks like lists of names, so that's what you'll get. Here are five hitters with a chance to improve their rate of homers from last season.

Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: Keep in mind this is based on skills, not volume. One can make a legitimate argument Votto will hit more homers if he maintains the approach he took the second half of last season, and not displaying as much patience. That remains to be seen. The call here is based on him leading the league in fly ball distance, a metric our friends at Fangraphs have shown to be a leading indicator of power potential. Especially because Votto plays in one of the best venues for homers, if his fly ball distance is close to 2016's level, the correlation says he'll add some more dingers to his docket.

Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers: Castellanos is another candidate to increase output via volume if the Tigers move some of their veterans before spring training, clearing a higher spot in the batting order. Even if that doesn't happen, his fly ball distance also portends more homers than he's been launching the past couple of seasons. One problem is the asymmetric dimensions of Comerica Park, which has a very deep center field. One reason for Castellanos' high fly ball distance is he drives a lot of fly balls to straightaway center, with a fence 420 feet from home plate. A few to either side, and he indeed has good opposite field pop, and we're looking at a power surge.

Matt Carpenter, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals: Carpenter also has fly ball data to support his case, but there's also narrative to consider. I tend to shy away from the notion that some players can opt to sacrifice average for power and vice versa. However, from the current crop of swingers, if someone is capable of doing it, he would head the list. In fact, some feel that's what drove his 28 homers in 2015. With Dexter Fowler manning the leadoff spot, Carpenter could be put in the three-hole where he may want to be more of a run producer. Additionally, the plan is for him to play first base, a spot usually associated with power, so maybe he elects to play the part. The only negative is that Busch Stadium depresses homers.

Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: Really? He can do even better? Yup, the fly ball correlation suggests Seager is a strong candidate for a 30 HR season.

Keon Broxton, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: This one's mostly hunch, but I see a Carlos Gomez-light, without the attitude, in Broxton. There's going to be a big battle for playing time in the Brewers outfield though. He is obviously a great steals contributor, but put him in Miller Park, one of the best home run venues in the league, and it's easy to see Broxton popping a few over the wall, solidifying his place in the lineup.

Others to consider include Marcus Semien, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.

Let's shift the focus to steals. Running is as much a product of opportunity as skills. You need to get on base then be gifted the green light, or be on your own and have the opportunity coincide with an open base. The same study was conducted as above, but as you likely intuit, there are fewer subjects that meet the criteria from year to year.

These results are more varied, plus we're working from a smaller portion of the pool, about 30 percent. This is amplified by the smaller total player pool. That is, there are very few hitters than improve their stolen base pace from season to season. Keep in mind the cutoff for a season is 200 plate appearances, so there's a good chance of speed emerging. The above data suggests it may be best to look for a breakout speed candidate from the pool of players that didn't play much the previous season, especially since the group that improve 20 percent is even smaller. Still, there's 15-20 guys that will indeed improve; it would be great to land one or two. Here's a shot at identifying a couple along with some emerging speed.

Adam Eaton, OF, Washington Nationals: The move to the Senior Circuit should be good for Eaton's opportunities, along with playing for an old-school manager that believes it's the job of a leadoff hitter to steal. His pilfers were modest with the White Sox, but he played in a hitter's park with some big-time power hitters such as Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier. His success rate was adequate. It's also interesting to note Eaton smacked 28 triples the past three seasons, an indication of his wheels.

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Boston Red Sox: There's a good chance the Red Sox run-scoring prowess takes a big hit in 2017. History supports this, let alone the loss of David Ortiz, and the unlikelihood the core remains relatively injury-free again. A drop in power from JBJ may also contribute to the decline. To help compensate, Bradley Jr. may use his legs more. After all, he is 22-for-24 when stealing so far in his young career.

Dexter Fowler, OF, St. Louis: It's one thing running when you're followed by the likes of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, and quite another with guys like Almedys Diaz, Carpenter and Stephen Piscotty looking to knock you in. Fowler may have lost a step from his salad days, but he can still pick his spots, and will likely be asked to do so more often with the Redbirds than the Cubs.

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh: Just a hunch, but not one without precedence. It wasn't long ago the party line was that Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun wouldn't run any more either. While neither returned to their glory days, both continue to chip in with some useful bags. Why not Cutch? He's cut from the same cloth: a former superstar who's full of pride and a desire to quiet the critics. If healthy, it wouldn't be shocking to see McCutchen pick them and put them down again.

Ketel Marte, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks: Hear me out! I may be contractually obligated to mention Marte once a week, but it's warranted. He is moving from a squad that swiped 58 bags in total to one that was third overall in the league at 137. Team tendencies really favor Marte to increase his running. Of course, he must win a job, ostensibly at shortstop, but if he does, steals should be a serious element of his game.

Others to consider as emerging candidates include Mallex Smith, Charlie Tilson, Adam Frazier and Manuel Margot.