Oak's Corner: The First Half That Was

Well, here we are, the All Star break. Hopefully you have enjoyed the debut season of Oak's Corner as much as I have enjoyed bringing it to you. I like to use the All Star Break to take inventory of my teams and decide on strategies for the second half. With games every day during the season, it can be easy to lose track of exactly how a player or team is fairing, but these four days off give us all a nice chance to get a feel for our squads. We all have a tendency toward recency bias as well as some affection toward players we liked and drafted in March, so this is a good week to drop those biases and get real with our teams.

For my teams doing well and in contention, I first take a close look at each statistical category of the standings to see how solid I am in each one. Sometimes, you can look at a category and see a number of teams right behind you and realize, potentially, you could be dealing with a house of cards, but other times, big gaps make you realize that you're in great shape and also help you decide which categories to attack. I also look at the year-to-date stats (and maybe the last month to six weeks) of my players, as sometimes an underperforming or droppable player can slip through the cracks on a good team, as I know I'm not always as focused regarding the need to fix or make changes to a good team. For a team that's struggling, I look at what players I liked at draft time who are underperforming and try and figure out if I really believe a bounceback is coming or whether it is time to cut bait before it's too late. I also set short-term goals to help not get overwhelmed by a deficit. For example, if I'm 25 points back in a league, I try and grind it down to 15 points by August 1st and then reassess from there. The key, whether doing well or poorly, is to realize that there is a lot of season left and there will still be a lot of movement in the standings in most leagues, but also realize that the time to start to make that move is now.

The First Half That Was

With no games this week, I'm going to take a different approach to this section. Everyone likes to talk about the players they got right, and while that can be fun, I'm going to take a look at some players on whom I have missed badly so far this year and figure out whether I need to revalue the player or my initial opinion still holds for the second half. It should be noted that these aren't players I necessarily liked or disliked overall, but ones I thought were being over- or under-drafted in March.
• As an A's fan, I was really excited for the 2017 season of Jharel Cotton. I liked what I saw in his five-start sample with the A's in 2016 and I also liked what I saw watching him up close in spring training this year. It would be tough to miss more on a potential breakout starter prediction, as Cotton has been flat out bad, posting a 5.17 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP in his 14 starts in 2017. While Cotton's strikeouts weren't big last season with just 7.06 K/9 rate, there was reason for optimism with a 12.5 percent swinging strike rate. Cotton has bumped up the K's a touch to 7.87 strikeouts per nine, but the swinging rate had fallen significantly to 9.5 percent. Cotton's major, and unexpected, issue has been his walk rate of 3.75 BB/9. He exhibited excellent control in 2016 in the minors and majors, and he has been under 3.00 BB/9 at every level aside from a two-start stint in Single-A in 2013.

  Cotton's hard hit rate has gone up to 32.6 percent, and with his elevated 46.2 percent fly ball rate, he has had an issue with homers, allowing 13 in only 76.2 innings. In watching his starts, I've found that even his good ones have come with a lot of hittable pitches left in the zone that he just cannot get away with on a regular basis, especially as a guy who only averages 93.2 mph on his fastball. He has gone away from his much revered changeup, throwing it only 17.7 percent, down from 28.4 percent in 2016, and he hasn't been good with it with a pitch value of -4.6 so far. Cotton currently is on the DL with a blister and is expected back soon, but I have dropped him where I own him and don't plan on trading for him and would only add in the plushest two-start weeks at home.

• I picked up the Astros Alex Bregman in 2016 in the NFBC Main Event and found myself very impressed with how well he survived in the majors after a disastrous 1-for-32 start to his rookie campaign. After that brutal start, Bregman hit 308 with an OPS over .900 with eight homers and 34 RBI in 41 games. After that impressive run, as well as a projected prime batting slot in a great lineup, I was very bullish on Bregman coming into 2017. Bregman has been quite mediocre in the first half, hitting .256 with only eight homers, a very low number for a corner infielder in this season that has seen a home run explosion.

  Bregman actually has cut his strikeout rate (which was expected with his history in the minors) from 24 percent to 17 percent while increasing his walk rate from 6.9 percent to 10 percent. Bregman's hard hit rate has dropped to 30 percent, and he is hitting less fly balls and line drives, while his ground ball rate has jumped seven percent. One of the bigger issues in terms of counting categories for Bregman has been the demotion from the two hole in 2016 to hitting eighth a majority of the time this season, which has been a factor in his meager 27 RBI total. I'm still a Bregman fan going forward, but his batted ball profile and batting leads me to not project any sort of significant uptick in his second half. I'd still use him in the right matchups in 15-team league, but I wouldn't argue against a drop in a 12-teamer.

• In deeper leagues, one of my main targets was San Francisco's Brandon Crawford, a guy I loved to fill my middle infield slot in the back half of drafts. Crawford was coming off back-to-back solid years, hitting 21 homers in 2015 and hitting .275 in 2016. Most important to me in targeting him was the sneaky fact that Crawford has 84 RBI and topped 65 runs in his last two seasons, solid numbers for someone I had pegged for middle infield slot. Crawford's 2017, like many of the Giants, has been brutal, as he is hitting .225 with only eight homers and a low 28 runs scored, going from a guy who I thought would help me at his draft spot to one who has hurt me for an entire half.

  Crawford's strikeout rate is in line with his 2015 and 2016 seasons, but his walks are down to a career-low 5.7 percent. Crawford's hard hit rate is steady at a decent 34.9 percent, but he's hitting five percent less live drives than 2016. The most negative aspect of Crawford's batted ball profile is a significant uptick in soft contact to 21.1 percent, the highest number he has posted in any full season. Most concerning to me are his struggles as of late, as he's hitting a putrid .184 in his last 125 at-bats. Crawford's BABIP of .252 is well below his career BABIP of .294, which gives a slight glimpse of hope for a second half turnaround, but the uptick in soft contact is likely also assisting in dragging the BABIP down. I have dropped Crawford in 12-teamers and am holding him due to the lack of quality replacements in a 15-teamer, but I'm watching him closely and will drop him quickly without some obvious signs of a second half turnaround.

• I've talked about a number of guys I liked in March who've disappointed, but, on the flip side, Houston's George Springer was someone who I thought was quite over-drafted this March. At his ADP of 36, I didn't like his poor efficiency in stealing bases, his batting average downside and middling hard hit rate (well, for a top 40 pick), and thought his lack of fly balls would keep the homers from getting to an elite level. Huh, fast-forward a half-season and Springer has proven me wrong and a whole lot more. Springer has 27 homers already this season, nearly matching his 29 from 2016 that took him to 162 games to achieve. He only has two stolen bases, so at least I was right there? Great.

  Springer has dropped his strikeout rate to 22 percent, but his biggest uptick has been his hard hit rate, which has jumped to 39.4 percent. His 31.4 percent HR/FB likely will decline, but he's clearly going to crush his 2016 season and his draft price, especially when you consider his .310 batting average. Springer is also benefitting from hitting atop an extremely potent lineup, as he already has 75 runs, but he also earned that with a career high .380 OBP. He also has seen a nice drop in his swinging strike rate from 12.4 percent to 10.8 percent, and he has really boosted his contact on strikes, moving from 79.7 percent to 84.6 percent. Everything with Springer this year looks like the long-awaited breakout many were waiting for, and he is one fade that hurts and I imagine it will continue to hurt the rest of the way.

• The Met's Robert Gsellman made a nice splash in 2016 with a 2.42 ERA over 44.2 innings where he impressively allowed only one home run. His strikeout rate in 2016 was nice at 8.46 K/9, while his walk rate was serviceable at 3.02 BB/9. Further, I really liked his ground ball tilt at 54.2 percent combined with avoiding hard contact at a rate under 29 percent. I considered Gsellman a nice mid-range pitcher in drafts, especially after he locked down a rotation spot in the spring with a strong 2.31 ERA in 23.1 spring innings.

  Well, Gsellman has responded to my mid-round love with an ugly 6.16 ERA and an equally ugly 1.62 WHIP. The most concerning aspects of his profile have been the strikeout rate crash down to 6.75 K/9 and 13 homers allowed in only 76 innings. The previously low hard hit rate has jumped to 33 percent, and while his fly ball rate is still low at 27.3 percent, it is up four percent from last year. His swinging strike rate of 7.5 percent shows that the strikeouts aren't likely to bounce back once he returns to the rotation from his hamstring injury. I have dropped him across the board, and he's not on my list to pick up when he returns.
  

Brent Suter: Suter is an interesting pitcher, as the lefty has been effective so far this year but averages only 86.1 mph on his fastball, a pitch he throws almost 70 percent of the time. Despite the lack of velocity, Suter has managed to mix in a solid amount of strikeouts, with rates of 9.33 K/9 in 26.3 Triple-A innings and 8.23 K/9 in 27.1 MLB innings. The punch-outs have been a bit of a surprise, as his K rates last year sat in the 6.15 K/9 range across the minor and major leagues. On the plus side, his swinging strike rate has risen to 9.6 percent, but of course that number is over only 26.1 innings. Suter is especially interesting this week because of his schedule, which gives him two projected road starts, at Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. The Pirates and Phillies both place in the bottom 10 in MLB in runs scored and the bottom five in OPS, so the starts sure line up well for Suter on paper. He has made two starts since being reslotted into the rotation, shutting out the Orioles over six innings and then allowing only two runs to the Yankees in 6.1 innings. In those 12.1 innings, he struck out 13 while only walking two hitters. I'm not expecting dominance from Suter in any way, but he has excellent control, and with his nice matchups, I'm bidding on him in 12 teamers this week, and if he's still available in your 15-teamer (he was picked up last week in both of mine), I'd certainly toss out a bid there.

Brad Miller: Miller was a big fantasy asset in 2016, slugging 30 homers for the Rays while driving in 81 and hitting .243. Miller has struggled this year, hitting only .209 while serving two different stints on the DL. While he was out, Miller was dropped in many leagues and is still available in about half of the NFBC 12-team leagues. My absolute favorite thing about Miller is the flexibility he gives you by being eligible at first base, second base and shortstop. That has so much value, especially in daily formats or setups like the NFBC where you can make switches on Friday. Miller can slide into a slew of spots and allows you to carry an extra pitcher as he can backup multiple starters all by himself. Miller is not going to hit for a high average, as his strikeout rate of 26.2 percent leaves him with a lot of empty at-bats. However, so far this year, despite his struggles, he has been hitting the ball hard with a 40.6 percent hard contact rate, a nice boost over the 35.1 percent rate he had in his 30-homer 2016. Miller's fly balls have dropped almost six percent to 31 percent, but if he can find his fly ball stroke back near the 2016 levels, he could provide some pop while backing up a number of positions. So far through 45 games, Miller has shown much improved patience at the plate, walking in 18.6 percent of his plate appearances. The strikeouts are here to stay, but if you need homers, taking a flyer on a guy who hit 40 last year is a decent place to start, especially since you can slot him into your middle infield slot. He's a nice Swiss army knife piece to have on your bench and someone on whom I'll be bidding this weekend to be a bench bat on my teams.

Series of the Weekend

Yankees at Red Sox: Only two of the six division leaders at the break lead by fewer than fives game, and Boston is one of those, currently sporting a 3.5 game lead on the Yankees. This is a huge four-game set (they play a twin bill Sunday) for the Yankees because their promising start to the season has sputtered a bit as they are six games under .500 since June 1st. If they could find a way to win three of four this weekend in Fenway, they are right back in the race. If they falter this weekend, they could be staring up at a hot Boston team with a 5.5 or 7.5 game lead.

The task won't be easy for the Yankee hitters as the Red Sox are scheduled to send lefties David Price, Drew Pomeranz and Chris Sale to the hill in addition to right-hander Rick Porcello. The Yankees have the third best OPS in the majors so far this year, but against lefties, they slip all the way to 20th in baseball in OPS. To no one's surprise, home run champ Aaron Judge kills lefties, but so far this year Gary Sanchez (.620 OPS), Chase Headley (.510 OPS) and Didi Gregorius (.678 OPS) have struggled in particular against southpaws. With three lefties taking the mound for Boston, the Yankees will need to figure them out quickly if they want to gain ground this weekend.

Some of the Red Sox bats have warmed recently, most notably Hanley Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia. They're both hitting .359 in nine July games and both have homered twice. After a slow start to the season that saw the Red Sox offense score only 93 runs in 24 April games, they have turned it up to the levels we expected preseason and have climbed into the top 10 in runs scored now on the season. The big key for the Red Sox going into the second half, and maybe the playoffs, is what they will get from David Price. After missing most of the first two months with an arm injury, Price has not quite been ace-level yet but seems to be rounding into form allowing only seven runs total in his last four starts while striking out 26 batters in that run of 25 innings. If the Sox can get Price back to his old self (and healthy), they can present a very nasty top two in a playoff series when you pair him with Chris Sale.

This series is always energetic (and yes, hyped) and fun no matter what the stakes, but this is an especially huge one for the Yankees, especially coming out of the break. A series win or loss could set the tone for how their second half will progress and perhaps decide whether they are aggressive in acquiring someone at the trade deadline at the end of the month.