FanDuel NBA: Saturday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Saturday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

FanDuel serves up a robust 10-game slate on the first post-All-Star-break Saturday night of action, affording us a multitude of value options to consider. With the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook and Paul George in action, there's plenty of incentive to identify viable bargain plays that will allow you to potentially squeeze in up to two of the elite options into your tournament lineups. With plenty to break down, let's dive right in:

POINT GUARD

Collin Sexton, CLE vs. MEM ($5,500): Sexton produced a 3-for-12 shooting clunker in his first game out of the All-Star break Thursday versus the Suns, leading to a modest 18.4 fantasy points. However, he'd scored no fewer than 24 and as many as 40.3 in the five games prior to the All-Star break, and the matchup actually lines up well on paper for him Saturday. The Grizzlies check in allowing the seventh-most fantasy points (40.4) per game to ones and are tied for the sixth-most assists (7.2) yielded to the position as well. Sexton is now sporting an impressive 26.8 percent usage rate for the season, and his price is low enough that he should be able to generate a strong return if he keeps up that volume versus Memphis.

Elfrid Payton, NO vs. LAL ($5,100): Payton was back in the starting lineup versus the Pacers on Friday and tallied 27.4 fantasy points in just 28 minutes despite the tough matchup. The 25-year-old could see a slight bump in minutes Saturday in what should be one of the fastest-paced matchups of the night, which makes him especially appealing when combined with his bargain salary. Payton has been hampered by injury throughout the season, but he's averaged a solid 25.0 fantasy points in the games he has suited up for. He's flashed a ceiling north of 40 fantasy points as well, and without Lonzo Ball's defense recently, Los Angeles is now about middle-of-the-pack against point guards. The Lakers allow 37.2 fantasy points per game to the position, including the third most (51.0) over the last 10 games, all of which Ball has missed.

SHOOTING GUARD

Dwyane Wade, MIA vs. DET ($5,400): Wade's price always seems to be in the neighborhood of where it is Saturday, making him one of the season's perpetual values. The ageless Wade is enjoying a resurgent season and has already averaged 19.0 points on 62.1 percent shooting in two prior games versus the Pistons this season. Wade went off for 36.8 fantasy points in his first post-All-Star-break contest against the Sixers on Thursday, and he eclipsed the 30-mark in three of the last six games before the layoff as well, despite playing no more than 28 minutes in any of those contests. Factoring in that the Pistons allow the third-most fantasy points (39.6), sixth-most actual points (21.3) and fourth-highest efficiency rating (23.7) to two-guards, and Wade becomes one of the most enticing value plays of the night.

Avery Bradley, MEM at CLE ($5,000): Another change of venue seems to have done wonders for Bradley's previously broken shot, as the veteran is back to looking like his usual self thus far in Memphis. Bradley has scored 24.7 to 50.2 fantasy points in his last three games after scuffling badly for most of the season with his shot. The veteran has drained at least 50.0 percent of his shots in those contests, and he'll be lined up for another potentially impressive performance Saturday. The Cavaliers have allowed shooting guards the eighth-most fantasy points (38.2) per contest, along with the sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating (23.4). What's more, the Cavs are yielding the highest three-point percentage (38.6) of any team on its home floor, a weakness Bradley has the ability to exploit if he gets hot.

SMALL FORWARD

Kelly Oubre Jr., PHO at ATL ($5,200): Oubre has blown his current price away on multiple occasions since joining the Suns. Most recently, Oubre scored 43.3 fantasy points versus the Cavaliers on Thursday, and he also posted 33.2 to 55.4 in four other games in February. The Hawks could well facilitate more of the same, considering they've allowed the most fantasy points (42.7) and points (21.9) per game to small forwards, along with the fourth-highest shooting percentage (46.0) and third-highest offensive efficiency rating (22.7) to the position. Oubre is now in the starting lineup as well, and he's already sporting a 24.8 percent usage rate since making his Suns debut on Dec. 20.

Jeff Green, WAS vs. IND ($5,000): Green came through as a value option Friday against the Hornets, tallying 27.9 fantasy points over 31 minutes. That marked the seventh time in the last nine games overall that Green provided over 5x value on his current salary, and one of the two in which he failed to do so notably was a nine-minute outing against the Bulls. The Pacers have been relatively stingy versus power forwards in yielding just 36.8 fantasy points per game to the position, although that figure has risen to 52.2 over the last five games. Notably, Indiana has seen a big spike in points in the paint allowed per contest over the last three (51.3, compared to 44.1 per game for the season), a weakness Green has the talent to capitalize on.

POWER FORWARD

Marvin Bagley III, SAC at OKC ($6,100): Bagley is likely to stick in the starting five moving forward after supplying 45.8 fantasy points over 33 minutes versus the Warriors on Thursday. The rookie has already been excelling off the bench for most of the season, offering a ceiling in excess of 50 fantasy points. His upside easily outpaces his current price, and a matchup versus a Thunder team that's been weak against power forwards all season and is coming off an exhausting double-overtime battle versus the Jazz seems like an appealing recipe for one of Bagley's better returns. OKC just allowed Derrick Favors to shoot 90.0 percent against them Friday, and they're yielding the second-most fantasy points (63.0) and highest shooting percentage (65.0) to power forwards over the last five games. The Thunder is also yielding the eighth-highest offensive efficiency rating (25.9) to the position for the season, while the 62.0 points in the paint per game they've yielded over the last three contests is the highest figure in the NBA during that span. In turn, Bagley is logging 63.4 percent of his scoring in that part of the floor.

Marcus Morris, BOS at CHI ($5,100): For those that need further savings, Ivan Rabb ($3,800) is also an appealing option in this spot. Morris continues to be priced very reasonably despite the 30-fantasy-point upside he brings and a solid Saturday matchup. The Bulls have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points (40.7) to power forwards, along with the fourth-most rebounds (10.3) and fifth-highest shooting percentage (48.0) to the position. The Bulls are also shooting a pedestrian 44.9 percent at home, which should add up to a few extra opportunities on the defensive glass that will allow Morris to build on his career-high 6.1 boards per contest. It's also worth noting the veteran has been at his best this season on the road, shooting 47.6 percent — including 42.4 percent from three-point range — outside of TD Garden.

CENTER

Cody Zeller, CHA vs. BKN ($6,400): For those that need to save, Joakim Noah ($4,400) is also an excellent option if Jonas Valanciunas (personal) remains out Saturday. Meanwhile, Zeller has enjoyed solid success versus the defensively challenged Nets this season, notching 47.0 fantasy points in his most recent encounter with them Dec. 28. The Nets have also continued to struggle against centers since that point, as they check in allowing the most fantasy points (39.8) per game to the position, along with the most points (16.7), third-most rebounds (11.2) and 53.0 percent shooting. As those numbers imply, Brooklyn has had trouble preventing offense in the paint. They allow the third-most points per game (52.2) and sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating (61.0) in that part of the floor, while Zeller is logging just under 73.0 percent of his points near the basket. He'll also come into Saturday's contest on a tear, having scored over 30 fantasy points in three straight games.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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