Legendary Marquette basketball head coach Al McGuire once said, "The best thing about freshmen is they become sophomores." Nothing could be more applicable (except maybe in college basketball) than in an NBA fantasy draft, when young players get a full season under their belts and come back more polished for their second seasons.
Consider that on a per-game basis, just four rookies since 2020 have finished inside the top 70 in fantasy player rankings for their rookie seasons: Generational talent Victor Wembanyama finished sixth in 2024. Cade Cunningham (49th in 2022), LaMelo Ball (56th, 2021) and Tyrese Haliburton (68th, 2021) are the others.
In that same span, 14 sophomores have finished inside the top 70. In most instances, outside of sure-fire future All-Stars, it pays to wait a year and avoid the overpay that rookies require based on their NBA fantasy ADP.
That's why it's important to prepare with a fantasy basketball draft kit.
Why Year-Two Players Often Outperform Rookie Seasons
It's simple but true: Playing in the NBA is really difficult. Most fantasy-worthy top picks are still teenagers being thrust into a man's game. Playing 82 games at the sport's highest level sometimes lands these youngsters on the NBA injury report because of the grueling schedule. Additionally, most top picks are also playing for bad teams, meaning they're given the keys to the offense immediately, are surrounded by little talent and are outmanned most nights.
Fast forward a year. These same players return as professionals with a year of experience. Presumably, their team is better, they have a more structured role and an offseason of proper training. It's little surprise why young players take a year to show improvement. There's an argument that many players fly under the radar because they weren't fantasy-friendly as rookies.
Breakout Sophomores to Target in Your Fantasy Draft
The 2024 draft class wasn't a promising one, and it's no surprise that zero players finished inside the top 140 in fantasy player rankings. Zach Edey was the highest-ranked rookie at No. 143. But there are a few players who could move into NBA starting lineups on a full-time basis and produce in Year 2.
Bulls forward Matas Buzelis closed the year strong, averaging 14.1 points on 51% shooting and 1.3 blocks over his last 16 games (72nd per game overall in that span). Heat center Kel'el Ware showed flashes in his first season and projects to start once again for Miami, providing positives in rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage.
Rockets guard Reed Sheppard was abysmal as a rookie but has too much talent to not make an impact for a Houston team that will need more scoring off the bench. He's a late-round flier that could wind up being a sleeper if he gets consistent minutes. Bub Carrington is talented and should start at point guard for the Wizards. If you can stomach his ugly field goal percentage, he's also a solid target in the later rounds. Make sure you've highlighted that quartet on your NBA fantasy draft cheat sheet.
How Sophomore Player Development Impacts Rankings
It's possible that many fantasy basketball rankings will have sophomores lower on their respective lists because of their quiet rookie campaigns. That means there's value to be had for those players in better situations with a year of experience under their belts. Owners who rely too much on last season's performance and not enough on NBA projections may miss diamonds in the rough because of it.
This is true for both average draft position and fantasy basketball auction values, where owners may be able to grab second-year players on the cheap knowing that more than three times as many of those players rank inside the top-70 than they do as rookies.
Draft Kit Insights Into Rising Second-Year Stars
The second-year bump is real, but it's still possible for sophomores to fly under the radar because of a poor rookie season. Players like Wembanyama, Luka Doncic and LeBron James are more the exception than the rule for standout rookie seasons.
That's why we recommend looking at projections just as much as custom rankings or ADP. What you'll see is an improved player that should be more efficient, log additional playing time and be able to help you.
You can learn all about the league's potential sophomore breakout candidates after you subscribe to RotoWire to get the latest and best insights for the upcoming fantasy basketball.
