One of the toughest decisions that fantasy basketball owners will need to make is whether to roll the dice on an injury-prone player. The best ability is availability, and there's nothing worse than seeing one of your star players pop up on the NBA injury report. While certain fluke injuries can't be predicted, there are many players with a history of injuries that make them frustrating to draft and own.
On the flip side, these players worth considering in drafts are dominant when they're on the floor, and the promise of a healthy season can mean stealing a player at his NBA fantasy ADP and turning a good team into a contender. Here's what to consider when opting to roll the dice on an injury-prone player.
Injury-Prone Stars Who Still Rank in the Early Rounds
Of the top-30 players on Rotowire's NBA fantasy rankings for head to head leagues, all but two project to play more than 60 games. The two outliers? Charlotte's LaMelo Ball, who has missed more than 40% of his five-year career and has played more than 47 games in a season once. Memphis' Ja Morant has never played more than 67 games in a season, which he did as a rookie.
The Sixers' Joel Embiid was once a fantasy basketball titan and had an argument to be the top pick most seasons, but back and knee injuries have caused his value to plummet. He hasn't played 70+ games in a season since being drafted in 2014. He ranked 25th last season on a per-game basis, but appeared in just 19 games. His NBA projections have him at 50 games this season, and that may even be too high.
How to Weigh Risk vs. Reward in Fantasy Draft Decisions
A large part of the decision-making process on injury-prone players will come down to your league settings. Leagues with IR spots or deep benches make it easier to stomach players when they go down.
Similarly, head-to-head leagues are easier to deal with when players go down vs. Roto leagues that accumulate stats all season long. It's also easier to deal with injury-prone players if when you draft one, you take a look at NBA lineups and draft his backup as insurance.
The way your draft falls will also play into the decision-making process. If you've grabbed a handful of players at spots lower than their NBA fantasy rankings, you could roll the dice on an injury-prone player knowing that your team is able to better withstand it. If your entire league is staying away from a player in an auction, you may be able to get him cheap compared to fantasy basketball auction values.
Players to Draft Carefully Based on Injury History
Ultimately gut instinct will be the final decision when drafting a player with an injury history. Using the fantasy basketball draft kit and its injury report will be important for current injuries, but also keep in mind that history usually repeats itself. Injury-prone players are also more likely to sit back-to-backs and rest closer to the postseason.
Two players that we're going against the grain on and targeting on our fantasy basketball cheat sheet despite their medical tags are Zion Williamson and Kyrie Irving. Williamson appeared in just 30 games last season, but he's one year removed from a 70-game campaign. He's simply too dominant a force in points and field goal percentage to disregard just because of his injury tag, and he's quietly great across the board in all categories but free throw percentage (making him a better head-to-head fit).
Irving is a full value player, who can be had cheaply on draft day because he's expected to miss most of the season's first half recovering from an ACL injury. If the Mavs are in postseason contention with Anthony Davis and Cooper Flagg, he could return sooner than anticipated.
Ranking Adjustments You Can Make for Risk-Averse Drafting
If you don't want to deal with the headache of slotting guys on IR or having to pick up new players to replace injured ones, the best strategy is simply to take them off your list. It'll bump the players you're interested in up a slot and feel like value when you're on the clock.
Draft cautiously when it comes to injury-prone players, but also consider whether there's value at certain rounds of a snake draft and at dollar amounts for an auction draft. Players who subscribe to RotoWire will have a better idea of who to target and who to avoid on draft day.
