Reading Jeff Erickson's take on the draft reminded me to post my own. It's an odd format with a 1450-innings cap for your pitching stats, four outfielders, two utility spots and only one catcher. You can also have an unbalanced roster with, say, only six pitchers, for example, and three extra hitters on your bench if you like. Moreover, there are daily transactions, though free agent pickups accrue to your roster the following day. All these quirks have implications for player value, as did the fact there were only 12 teams this year as opposed to 14 or 15 in the past. Full results are here.
I drew the fifth pick, and when the first three players to go were hitters, allowed myself to hope Clayton Kershaw would fall to me because sometimes industry types don't like to take pitching early. Unfortunately, last year's champ, D.J. Short, was picking fourth, and he put the kibosh on that. That left me in arguably the worst draft slot as there's not a clear cut No. 5 player. I considered Manny Machado, who has shortstop and third-base eligibility, but position scarcity is overrated outside of the catcher spot in a two-catcher league, and there are so many playable middle infielders available late in drafts this year. I also considered Max Scherzer as the innings cap makes the strikeouts category essentially K/9, as all contending teams make it to 1450, but I knew pitching would slip more than in an NFBC league, for example. So I took the best stat-producing hitter overall in my opinion, irrespective of position - Miguel Cabrera.
In Round 2, I was dead set on getting Chris Sale as I knew Scherzer wouldn't make it back past Erickson (and in fact Erickson took him.) Sale's K/9 is as good as anyone's, and elite starting pitchers are especially valuable in this format because they give you about one sixth of your entire innings output. Compare that with a hitter who will give you only 1/13th of your total at-bats.
In Round 3, I considered taking Chris Davis if he slipped to me (more on that in a second), but Rudy Gamble snagged him two picks before me, and the other hitter I'd have considered, George Springer, went to Short. So I took a second ace in Madison Bumgarner, who I consider the poor man's Kershaw, i.e., you're not only paying for the projections but the reliability.
The reason I considered Davis is power was more plentiful last year than from 2013-14, and you want to acquire the more prevalent commodity. I realize that sounds counter-intuitive as most people chase the scarce categories like steals, but I think they have it backwards. The more prevalent a category is, the higher the bar to do well in it, and the more of it you need. In a scarce category, one surprising contributor can tip the balance for you, but in power you need a whole team full of players who can go deep. This isn't a standard economy where where reduced supply should drive up price. That's only the case where the scarce good is something people want or need for its own sake. In a roto league, you only need the good relative to everyone else's supply of it. So if steals are scarce for everyone, you all need fewer steals. Hence, diminished supply should actually diminish demand. And if a few people decide to overpay for speed, even better. Now they're strong in a category all by themselves and weak elsewhere, and you need even less speed to keep up with the teams that will actually contend.
But Davis was gone, so I went with the other plentiful commodity, starting pitching.
In Round 4, I took Miguel Sano in part to shore up power, and also because third base is ugly in a shallow mixed league, and in fact, corners are slightly more valuable in this format generally with four OF and two UT rather than five and one. Often corners serve at UT, thinning out the position more quickly.
In Round 5, I considered my favorite value, Yasiel Puig, who I'm convinced will go 30-15-.300 this year, but thought (1) he might fall back to me in Round 6; and (2) I needed to pound the Ks even harder. Moreover, OF is slightly devalued in this format, and I have plenty of Puig shares already. So I took Chris Archer, who had 252 Ks in 212 IP last year.
Of course, Dalton Del Don snagged Puig later in Round 5 - it's my own fault for talking him up so much on our podcast - (clearly, DDD does not have a mind of his own and would never have drafted him there otherwise.) In Round 6, I took Craig Kimbrel as elite closers are incredibly valuable in an innings-cap league. Besides striking out far more than a batter per inning, they help you in ERA, WHIP and don't necessarily hurt you in wins. If Kimbrel gets five wins in 70 innings, that's a 15-win pace over 210 innings, meaning you give up nothing by using that slot on a reliever. In an uncapped league, even an elite closer hurts you in Ks and wins compared to a mediocre starting pitcher.
In Round 7, I took Michael Brantley who now has a chance to be ready for Opening Day. Were it not for his health scare (which ESPN's Stephania Bell assures me is overblown), he'd probably have gone three rounds earlier.
In Round 8, I missed out on Aroldis Chapman - a huge K/9 asset after his 30-game suspension - by two picks, so I added the best offensive player remaining in Matt Kemp.
In Round 9, I went back to the starting pitching well with Jon Lester who struck out 207 batters in 205 IP last year and plays for a great team, meaning he should help in both K/9 and wins/9. Again, the categories are the usual strikeouts and wins, but with the innings cap, those become K/9 and wins/9 once everyone reaches the cap. Just as you can't roster a low-strikeout pitcher unless he had a ridiculously-low ERA and WHIP, you don't want to pay much for pitchers who aren't likely to get run support like Tyson Ross or Julio Teheran. Playing for the Cubs, Lester is the opposite.
In Round 10, I was set to take a second closer, but when both Francisco Rodriguez and Jonathan Papelbon went, I switched gears and took Billy Hamilton. I know I said earlier you shouldn't overpay for speed, but in the 10th round, this felt like the opposite. Moreover, the beauty of a shallow league like this where players like Jayson Werth and Carlos Beltran are on waivers, is you can easily drop a player who loses his job or gets demoted to the minors. Basically, once you get to the double-digit rounds, you're mostly looking at a player's 70th percentile season and above. And in Hamilton's case, that's 75 or more steals.
In Round 11, I held my nose and took Glen Perkins. I don't trust him to stay healthy, but you absolutely have to have two closers in this league, and preferably three.
In Round 12, I took Randal Grichuk. He's a young player with a guaranteed job and plenty of pop. With Hamilton for steals, and Cabrera and Brantley protecting my batting average, power was the main concern for me on the hitting side.
In Round 13, I took Kenta Maeda, During the SXM show this morning, I told Jeff Erickson I wanted a share of him, so I made it happen. In retrospect, this was probably my one mistake of the draft. Not that I don't think Maeda might be good, but it cost me Drew Storen in the next round, and as I said you really want to have three closers. And there was no need for another starter right then when that tier of upside pitchers was widely available deep into the draft (for example, Jake Odorizzi and Wei-Yen Chen went two rounds later and Drew Smyly and Yordano Ventura a round after that.)
With Storen gone, I went upside in Round 14 with Byron Buxton. I didn't necessarily need steals with Hamilton, but Hamilton could lose his job, and in any event, Buxton could go 14-70-100.290 with 40 steals were he to live up to his pedigree with a full breakout. Upside is everything when the waiver wire is so stocked.
Round 15 was my best pick of the draft in Yu Darvish. Not only are there two DL-slots, meaning I will have a free pickup in a week, but if he comes back anywhere near what he was, I have another massive K/9 starter on a good team. The room shouldn't have let him slip this far, and in fact, I probably should have drafted him over Maeda if I were going for starting pitching.
Round 16 was an ugly one - I thought about speculating on quasi-closers, but settled for Mark Trumbo at the corner spot. I hate Trumbo as a player, but the power isn't in question, and he's in a good park for it.
In Round 17, I noticed Travis D'Arnaud was still available, and while the best play in this format is often to punt catcher altogether, as there are always decent ones on the waiver wire, he's my No. 3 or 4 C overall, and I needed to shore up power.
Rounds 18-19, I used on quasi-closers Joaquin Benoit and Alex Colome. I forgot about Ryan Madson who Scott Pianowski snagged, and I actually like him better than Colome as Sean Doolittle could be on his last legs. Either way, we're all guessing in these rounds, but that third closer is important in this format.
In Round 20, I took Trevor Story - maybe he gets the job and never gives it back. If not, he's easy to drop for a Didi Gregorius type. Once you hit Round 20, you're looking at the 90th-percentile stat lines only.
In Round 21, I took David Wright who plays better in a league with daily moves because you can sit him any time the team rests him and not lose the 30-40 games he's projected to miss.
In Round 22, I snagged Kevin Quackenbush - another dart at that elusive third closer. In Round 23, I took Javier Baez, who won't play every day, but should be valuable as a power-speed 2B-SS-3B when he does.
In Rounds 24-26, I took Cam Maybin (stash in second DL slot, pick up free player), Rusney Castillo (wasn't he a 12th rounder a year ago?) and Jedd Gyorko (power is plentiful, so you need plenty of it) to use in the middle should Story/Baez struggle or get sent down.
All things considered, I like this team, but my two challenges will be to maintain enough runs scored and find a third closer. If Darvish comes back as himself, I'll have a huge pitching surplus from which to deal, though.
Here's the team by position:
C Travis D'Arnaud
1B Miguel Cabrera
2B Javier Baez
3B Miguel Sano
SS Trevor Story
CI Mark Trumbo
MI *Jedd Gyorko
OF Michael Brantley
OF Matt Kemp
OF Billy Hamilton
OF Randal Grichuk
UT Byron Buxton
UT David Wright
P Chris Sale
P Madison Bumgarner
P Chris Archer
P Jon Lester
P Kenta Maeda
P Yu Darvish
P Craig Kimbrel
P Glen Perkins
P Joaquin Benoit
B Alex Colome
B Kevin Quackenbush
B Cameron Maybin
B Rusney Castillo
*Postscript: after reading an Eno Sarris re-tweet about how Diamondbacks prospect Peter O'Brien hit a ball 119.5 mph today (would have been the hardest hit ball of 2015), I dropped Gyorko for him. I figure I can get a decent MI on waivers, if not Gyorko himself, once Darvish goes on the DL, so why not grab a player with huge power upside should he emerge as a long-shot corner outfielder in Arizona?