It's been pointed out by our partner Ron Shandler that out of 1200 players tested for steroids in 2005, only 12 tested postive and just about all of them were either scrubby minor leaguers or fringe major leaguers, Rafael Palmeiro, a fading former semi-star who does Viagra commericals, being the exception.
I read Buster Olney's Blog on ESPN discussing whether it's reasonable to comment one way or another whether Albert Pujols is on steroids, and his basic (and somewhat obvious) point is that we'll never truly know, either way. But there are two things we do know: (1) that more than those 12 guys must be using because if it was just those 12, and 11 of them suck, then steroids don't work, and they never would have become an issue; and (2) that if a Pujols (or some other huge star) did test positive that MLB would have an enormous incentive to keep that quiet.
Think of it this way - if the mail room guy steals office supplies, you fire him. If your best salesman, who makes you $1,000,000 a year in profit steals office supplies, you look the other way. And consider that Bud Selig looked the other way during the obviously steroid driven home run chase in 1998, so why would he want to destroy baseball's rep even further if the game's biggest stars were all juicing. At what point does it become a business decision to keep it quiet and put in a fake policy to handle the stuff that's already come out.
What would surprise you more - that a guy like Pujols or David Ortiz was juicing, or that baseball would out them if they were? Even though we have no direct evidence of the former (some circumstantial evidence such as the massive size of their physiques, their ability to hit towering home runs, (in Pujols' case, the Bonds'-like plate discipline), etc.) the latter would surprise me more. So that only those scrubs have tested positive is evidence of nothing. At this point, it's the same as if they simply had no policy, and we're just left to speculate freely. There's little doubt that some major star other than Bonds, Giambi, etc. is or was juicing.