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Don't Overreact to the Preseason

A couple things to keep in mind during the preseason:

  • For a veteran who isn't fighting for his job, his performance means almost nothing. There is almost no correlation between having a great preseason and have a great year. The only exception is for a player returning from injury like Marvin Harrison, but even then only to see how healthy he is.
  • For a young player, or one battling for a job, the preseason doesn't matter, either except insofar as it influences the coaches to trust that player or give him the job. In other words, if a player is going to get the job anyway, then whether he has a decent or great preseason means little.
  • Even if a player wins the job in the preseason, it often means very little, as his status might be shaky when the real games begin. A good example is Charlie Frye last year who opened the season as Cleveland's starting quarterback and then was dumped a week later for Derek Anderson.
  • Don't adjust your cheat sheets due to preseason play unless it involves injuries that will last into the season, or a performance backed up by the coach's assurance that the performance is role-changing. As much as we discourage moving players up or down in your rankings because they had one good week in the REGULAR SEASON, you should be even more discouraged from doing so during preseason play.
  • Hold off from jumping to major conclusions based on preseason performance backed up only by fantasy pundit and/or team beat writer speculation. If a player has a good game, or gets all the snaps with the first team, and the coaches are quiet, but the fantasy pundits and beat writers are jumping to conclusions, note it, but keep an open mind. It's human nature to seek certainty, but the NFL is extremely uncertain, so stick with the facts, i.e., what we know for sure.
  • Even when young players who are battling for a job play well in the preseason, don't read too much into it. We had Robert Meachem pegged as a sleeper at WR, and after his big preseason game, he's shot up draft boards, and I've no longer been able to get him in Round 9 or later. It's understandable given his pedigree and that offense, but Meachem had an excellent chance to win the job even before his big game. Now that he's blown up, he's even more likely to win the job, but that doesn't change his outlook for the regular season all that much. Suddenly, what was a great value is now just a decent one because Meachem's price has risen a lot, but his earnings potential just a little.

    The same holds true for Chris Johnson, who has shot up draft boards, but who is essentially in the same position he was before camp opened. He could be terrific, but so was Michael Bennett in his first NFL preseason, so again, we should temper the excitement.

  • Put more stock in last year's regular season than this year's preseason. If someone played well in real games last year, games that were just as physical and just as intense as the real games will be this year, that's worth noting and incorporating into your cheat sheets far more than what someone's doing in the games that don't count. This is even more true if the preseason performance is against backups or third stringers.