We were in Vegas this week, so of course, a few of us had to make some bets, not only against the House, but against each other. One of the more interesting ones I made was against Dalton: I gave him the Spurs, Celts, Lakers and Cavs to win the 2009-10 NBA title, and he gave me the field. Oh, and I got 6 to 1.

While I admit it's hard to envision any other team winning next year - especially with the Lakers landing Artest, the Celts landing Rasheed Wallace, the Cavs landing Shaq and the Spurs getting Ginobili back and adding Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess, one mustn't underestimate the unknown.

In other words, given what we know right now, it's hard to see any other team winning it all. But there is much that will happen between now and the finals that we don't know. Because we can only use the known to make predictions - after all it's all we have to go on - we sometimes make the mistake of thinking that's all there is. But plainly, that's not the case, as surprises happen every year in every sport.

This isn't unique to basketball, or even sports betting - there are always more possibilities than merely the easily imagined ones, and you can use the tendency to ignore them to your advantage.

And if you like DDD's side of the bet, what kind of odds would you require to take the field?