Former Chiefs offensive coordinator Chan Gailey was apparently just the first domino to fall as the Bucs canned Jeff Jagodzinski and the Bills Turk Schonert soon after. Considering I can't remember seeing |STAR|any|STAR| offensive coordinator fired this close to the start of the season, it's staggering that there are three, and there's little doubt the Bucs and Bills felt emboldened to do so after the Chiefs set the precedent. In other words, had Kansas City not acted, it's doubtful the other two teams would have pulled the plug independently.
There are still unresolved quarterback battles in Cleveland and Detroit. My money's on Derek Anderson and Daunte Culpepper - two veterans and former Pro Bowlers, notwithstanding in Stafford's case, zealous beat writer speculation to the contrary. (Of course, that assumes Culpepper's foot is okay for Week 1). Generally, local news stories will hype up competitions and tout the younger, sexier player because that draws traffic and readers. Coaches tend to be more conservative and favor experience unless the younger player gives them no choice. There are always exceptions, but the smart money is usually on the veteran (that's already been the case with Byron Leftwich in Tampa). The one exception this year was with Mark Sanchez, but it hardly qualifies as Kellen Clemens is as undeveloped as a rookie himself.
The preseason is vastly overrated. Last year, Ahman Green was the Texans starting running back. Two years ago Charlie Frye was Cleveland's starting QB. Not only are players playing against a varying mix of starters, backups and soon-to-be night-club bouncers, but even those who win jobs can just as easily lose them when the real games start. For that reason, it matters little whether Tim Hightower is starting ahead of Chris Wells or Correll Buckhalter is starting ahead of Knowshon Moreno. Sometimes I think our magazine rankings, produced in June, are a better guide (injuries excepted) than the overreactive cheat sheets that you see throughout the summer. In June, we can only take into account the big picture.
Moreover, coaches and reporters have their own agendas which don't always coincide with telling us the truth. The coach first and foremost must keep all of his players motivated and enthusiastic about the season. So whenever Sean Payton's asked whether Mike Bell will be in the running back mix, or Raheem Morris is asked whether Cadillac Williams (after heroically making it back from a second major knee injury) will get carries, of course he's going to say yes, knowing full well he can do whatever he wants once the season starts. You never hear a coach say: "Cadillac's just wasting his time - he has no hope of playing. It's time for us to think about 'Cash for Clunkers.'" Likewise, as I mentioned above, writers (and their stories) get noticed for being controversial, for taking a stand. That's why they're often proclaiming the starter prematurely, or blowing minor training camp accomplishments or failures out of proportion. For that reason, we typically don't tweak our projections and rankings until something significant happens - a coach names a starter, a player gets hurt, etc.
At least four (and probably more) teams will surprise us significantly this year. Remember the Falcons and Dolphins last year, each sitting on preseason O/U win totals of 4? And Tennessee wasn't picked by anyone to be a No. 1 seed, especially with Vince Young being a non-factor. There will be teams like that this year, so whether it's the Raiders, Lions, Bengals, Browns, Rams, Chiefs, Broncos or Bucs - there's a better than 50 percent chance at least one of them makes the playoffs.