We set a new highwater mark with yesterday's four-unit day, and since the low mark of -12 units, are up about .75 units a day. Still, it's a small sample in the big picture, and you have to keep making smart decisions. I do like where the higher-unit picks have gone, making excellent profits there.

With that in mind...the answer to Sunday's Bonus Question--what stupid thing did I do Friday and Saturday?--is that I allowed a three-start sample to drive a decision. By backing Aarpn Harang Friday night and John Maine Saturday, I gave in to one of the most basic misconceptions in the book, that short-term performance is predictive in a way that is actionable. It is now, and I deservedly lost both games. It's important to avoid falling into that kind if trap.

While I have you here...something new that I hope you'll support: https://joesheehanbaseball.blogspot.com.

Tonight:

Minnesota -107, one unit. The Blue Jays' strong start is built on a soft schedule, and they haven't played well in limited exposure to the AL's best. They'll be valuable for a couple of weeks.

Boston +167, one unit. The actual gap between the Yankees and Red Sox, and Daisuke Matsuzaka and Philip Hughes, is wildly overstated by this number.

Pittsburgh/Philadelphia over 10 (+100), two units. The two starters drive the decision, but remember that the Pirates' bullpen has shown a real ability to turn a 6-1 game into 16-1.

Colorado +112, two units. Continuing to take the better team, and tonight, the slightly better starter, fading the perception that Cook isn't good.