Right now the Bears 2:1 to make the Super Bowl. They're also +350/-450 to win this week's game against the Seahawks, i.e., the real line is about 400, i.e. 80 percent. So if the Bears are 80 percent to win this week, and 33 percent to make the Super Bowl (which is what 2:1 implies), then that means they're only 41.6 percent to win the NFC championship game (on average). That strikes me as low because it assumes Atlanta would be roughly a 65/35 favorite (about 3.5 points) should the two teams meet. (If GB wins (and I think they will), the line would be close to a pick 'em). Essentially at 2:1 I think the Bears offer good value, and moreover, if GB wins, you could take them on the moneyline next week and have a nice hedge.
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