We gathered for our first of many industry expert spring mocks on Monday afternoon, starting our Mocktus League slate with a 12-team mixed format.
My position was the 12th and final spot of Round 1, leading to double selections and long 22-pick breaks between players. Any time I'm drafting from the final slot, I tend to be more aggressive in the early and middle rounds to get the higher upside talent that can make or break my roster. That is, rather than trying to time the market perfectly, I knowingly make slight reaches for players that will undoubtedly be gone before my turn comes up again, even if it may be 10-12 picks "too early" to grab them based on ADP.
Full results are available here.
Here's how my roster turned out:
1.12 - Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY -- There's ample depth at second base, but the combination of Cano's home park and the lineup around him makes him the elite option at the position. MVP-caliber numbers are possible, and he's managed to stay healthy at the keystone -- a trait that is rare when looking at the upper tier of the position.
2.1 - Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY -- Knowing that there won't be many steals anymore, Rodriguez is still an elite third-base option in my book. He was able to go through his usual offseason workout plan, which bodes very well for his chances of bouncing back from his disappointing 2010 (.847 OPS). Even in a two-catcher league, it was too early to consider Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez or Brian McCann, and the 12-team format made owning Roy Halladay less desirable from this position.
3.12 - Andre Ethier, OF, LAD -- Ethier has landed on a ton of my teams this year and while he doesn't steal bases or play good defense, he flashed MVP potential early last season before his finger injury he should be strong in the power categories as well as AVG.
4.1 - Justin Upton, OF, ARI -- There was no chance of Upton being on the board with the 60th overall pick when my Round 5 turn would have rolled around. Adam Dunn was a strong consideration here, but none of my first three picks offer much in the speed department and getting 20-plus bags along with 20-25 HR power and upside for a lot more in both categories was simply too much to pass up.
5.12 - Jason Heyward, OF, ATL -- Allen Garner (Allen from The Hangover) isn't supposed to be near schools, and Heyward isn't supposed to be available at 60th overall in any format. The raw power and plate discipline at such a young age, plus the opportunity to drive in a lot of runs makes him well worth any "risk" that might be associated with him heading into the season.
6.1 - Jay Bruce, OF, CIN -- The breakout is coming in 2011. His second half was excellent - .306/.376/.575, 15 HR, 34 RBI -- and he did that in just 186 at-bats. It also feels like people forget just how good Great American Ball Park is for hitters.
7.12 - Mat Latos, SP, SD - After the Bruce pick, the plan was to wait until Round 9 or 10 to begin drafting pitching. The problem is, Latos has the skill set to be a top-50 overall selection this time next year. If that happens, he'll be a steal at 84th overall.
8.1 - Kendry Morales, 1B, LAA -- Needing a first baseman and generally steering clear of risk prior to this point, Morales became worth a gamble even with reports that he may not be 100 percent when Opening Day rolls around. All signs last season pointed to another .285-.290 campaign with 30+ homers and 100+ RBI.
9.12 - Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY -- Convinced that I should have waited longer on pitching with the Latos selection, Granderson was part of the two-pick surge that could have netted me Shaun Marcum and Max Scherzer instead. It's not that I don't believe in Granderson returning to his 25-30 HR and 15-20 SB form, but just a matter of not needing a fifth outfielder as much as I could have used another starting pitcher at this point.
10.1 - Ian Stewart, 3B, COL -- Buyer's remorse only because of the aforementioned pitchers I would have been able to grab instead. His health issues and that the Rockies now have plenty of options on their bench to replace him make Stewart more risky than a corner-infield plugin should be at this early mid-round stage.
11.12 - Carlos Lee, OF/1B, HOU -- I was really set on waiting as long as possible for more pitching. El Caballo's rebound from June 2 on last season is well documented in this blog, but like Stewart, he fails to address the lack of speed my crew of quality bats presents.
12.1 - Ricky Romero, SP, TOR -- There are a number of good pitchers on the board at this stage of the draft and choosing one is more difficult than picking an entree at the Cheesecake Factory. Romero just needs to maintain what he did in the first half last season over 33-34 starts to be a top-20 starter.
13.12 - Jose Valverde, RP, DET -- Sure, his 4.6 BB/9IP last season concerns me, but Valverde was chugging along with better control (3.7 BB/9IP) before getting hurt in September. The ratios should be good and the Tigers could win the AL Central this season, so look for plenty of opportunities for him to close out victories.
14.1 - Phil Hughes, SP, NYY -- Similar to Romero as far as needing to turn a good first half into a full season. Lost in the Yankees' pitching woes is that they may have developed a legitimate No. 2 starter from within. His first half was excellent last season (11-2, 3.65 ERA, 91:29 K:BB in 101 IP)
15.12 - Jorge Posada, C, NYY -- The end of the line may be drawing closer, but with Russell Martin in tow to limit his workload behind the plate, we just may see another good rotisserie campaign from Posada before he finally rides off into the sunset. Even if he's an AVG liability, homers and RBI should remain.
16.1 - Joel Hanrahan, RP, PIT -- Has the peripherals of an elite closer (12.9 K/9IP, 3.4 BB/9IP) and now finally has the opportunity to take the ball in the ninth inning again.
17.12 - Frank Francisco, RP, TOR --Francisco is the early favorite for the closer's role in Toronto and while there are plenty of options to replace him if he falters, the Jays had to have a reason for targeting him in the Mike Napoli deal.
18.1 - Gavin Floyd, SP, CHW -- Floyd scared plenty of owners away for good with a 6.64 ERA through 11 starts to open 2010. He also won over a number of savvy owners with his numbers after that point by going 102:35 K:BB in 126.1 IP with a 2.85 ERA in his final 19 starts.
19.12 - A.J. Pierzynski, C, CHW -- There are worse second-catchers out there, even in leagues this shallow. Pierzynski makes enough contact to avoid being a drain on average, and also has the chance to help in RBI or runs depending on his lineup placement.
20.1 - Jason Bartlett, SS, SD -- I didn't believe in him repeating 2009 last season, but think he's a viable option when you go cheap at the position given the potential for 25-30 steals and a boatload of runs scored.
21.12 - Jed Lowrie, 2B/SS, BOS -- Can't help but shake the feeling that Lowrie is going to find his way into the lineup a few times per week and likely at the expense of Marco Scutaro (trade chip?).
22.1 - Ian Kennedy, SP, ARI -- Hoping innings spike from 2009 to 2010 doesn't have any impact on his health and performance this time around. If improved control from the second half holds up, he's useful in most matchups even in leagues of this size.
23.12 - Bud Norris, SP, HOU -- Never had control issues (4.5 BB/9IP) like the ones he experienced last season. Hoping his secondary stuff helps him turn the corner in that department in Year 2, since 9.3 K/9IP this late is a potential steal.