No one would argue with your selection of Albert Pujols as the first pick in your draft.  After all, he's put up incredible numbers over the past six years without missing any significant time to injury.  Even more impressive is the fact that Pujols has been the model of consistency:

Other than a brief decline to single-digit stolen bases in 2006 – 2008, his other stats have had minimal deviation.  In other words, Pujols is about as sure a thing as there is and it is safe to pencil him in for another strong season.

So that ends the discussion as to who is the number one selection, right?  It would, according to nearly every mock draft and ADP site that's out there.  But I am not so quick to job on that bandwagon, and there are some subtle statistical variances and other considerations that suggest you forego taking Pujols with the first draft pick.

By now, most of us are aware that ranking players is much more than looking at past statistics and projections for the coming season.  Other factors to consider include age, contract status, injury, position scarcity, ball park effect, team changes, etc.

Personally, I choose to not take all of these factors into consideration. For example, unless a player is moving to a new team that is significantly better or worse than his previous team, such as a move from the Yankees to the Mariners, or the ball park effect is drastic, such as a move from Coors to Petco, players of the caliber of those being drafted early can hit regardless of the team they are on or the park they play in.  But, for what it's worth, Busch Stadium ranked 26 out of 30 in 2010 in terms of ballpark effect.

But, I do look at some of these factors, so humor me and let's compare Pujols to the other 29 position players (if you think selecting someone other than Pujols is a stretch you certainly are not considering a pitcher with the first pick) going regularly in the top 30 according to most draft sites:

Age:  This really is more of an issue in keeper and dynasty leagues, or if a player has suffered numerous injuries, or if he's in his mid-30s and beyond.  Although he still would seem to have many good years ahead of him, Pujols is actually the same age or older than all but three (Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Kevin Youkilis) of the players coming off the board early in drafts.

Contract Status:  No one's contract status has been more discussed this off-season than that of Pujols.  Being in the final year of a contract (especially when talks break off), can work for or against a player.  Some argue that a guy in his walk year will put up greater numbers to elicit better offers on the free-agent market.  But, in Pujols case, it is hard to imagine him putting up significantly better numbers than he has in the past.

Conversely, some argue that the pressure to perform or having contract negotiations hanging over a player's head can adversely impact performance.  In Pujols case, I believe he is far too experienced a player to let that affect him.  Besides, players who've just signed big contracts or moved to new teams potentially have that same pressure on them.

However, the greatest concern with drafting a player who becomes a free-agent that season is the threat of being traded during the season (particularly if your league does not allow carryover statistics when a player goes from the AL to the NL or vice versa).  Pujols is one of only three (Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes are the other two) players in contract years among the top 30 hitters.

Injury:  Unless a player is coming off of surgery, this is a difficult factor to predict.  Certainly age, an individual's injury history, and the position played have to be considered.  Although Pujols has been able to avoid significant injury thus far in his career, injuries have to be a factor when looking at the other players available to you when your turn to draft comes up again.  I'll revisit this issue later.

Position Scarcity:  If there was ever an argument to select someone other than Pujols with the first pick, this is it.  Among the top 30 hitters, there are more first baseman than any other position.  I'm not suggesting you take a catcher or closer with the first pick (unless you happen to be in one of my leagues, then feel free to do so), but why choose Pujols when you may very well be able to get another first baseman whose numbers are solid in a later round, and use the first pick to grab someone at a position with fewer "super stars", such as second base and shortstop, where the statistical difference between the top players at those positions and the guy you may end up with later are far greater?

So, Pujols is one of the oldest players at the top of your cheat sheet.  He is a potential free-agent, plays in one of the worst hitters' parks, and he plays the deepest position in terms of talent.  Still not convinced to take a pass?  Read on.

I participated in several mock drafts (all 5x5), including 10 team mixed, 12 team mixed, 10 team NL only, and 12 team NL only.  I will admit that my decision to pass on Pujols did not work in 12 team mixed leagues or NL only leagues (nor does it apply to AL only leagues for obvious reasons).   However, the results were much better when drafting in 10 team mixed leagues  The following was the most common outcome of the first three rounds when Pujols was selected first, along with the results when I selected someone other than Pujols with the first pick: 

Statistically, the Pujols option nets you six additional homeruns and 23 more rbi than the non-Pujols option.  However, the non-Pujols option nets you 15 more runs scored, an extra stolen base, and a batting average that is 13 percentage points higher in 17 additional at bats.  Depending on how competitive a league you are in and how the balance of your draft plays out, I would call these results even.

However, the non-Pujols option is slightly younger, which may translate to fewer games missed resulting from injury.  And, while on the subject of injuries, the Pujols options takes on two injury risks in Rodriguez and Reyes, compared to one in the non-Pujols option (Utley).  The Pujols option also has two of the three contract-year players, while the other has none, while filling both middle infield positions (the most scarce of all positions besides catcher).

And, as the draft ran its course, the non-Pujols option reaped even greater benefits.  The Pujols option eventually drafted Martin Prado of Atlanta at second base and Jose Bautista of Toronto as their first outfielder, while the non-Pujols option selected Ryan Howard of the Phillies at first base and Casey McGehee of Milwaukee to play third.  The combined stats for each option's complete infield and first outfielder were as follows:

As you can see, both options resulted in the exact same number of homeruns.  And, while the Pujols option netted 13 additional runs scored and 3 more stolen bases, the non-Pujols option resulted in 47 more rbi and a batting average that is 3 percentage points higher.  Overall, I prefer the latter results.

I understand that these were mock drafts and that your results may vary.  I also understand that projections are just that.  But, at the end of the day, I believe there is something to be said for passing on Albert Pujols (in 10 team mixed 5x5 leagues only).  If nothing else, it will give your league a lot to talk about all season.

|STAR| 2011 stat projections taken from multiple websites and are not meant to predict performance