Hanley Ramirez versus Troy Tulowitzki is a pretty good debate entering the year. Ramirez is coming off arguably the worst season of his career, yet he still ranked as the 17th most valuable hitter according to Baseball Monster, and that's without adjusting for position scarcity. He saw his batting average drop 42 points from the prior year despite improving both his walk and K rates. His line-drive percentage was a career-low (16.3|PERCENT|), however, and there was nothing fluky about his power outage, as Ramirez suddenly turned into an extreme groundball hitter (1.56 GB/FB). The spike in groundballs dropped dramatically after the All-Star break, so it's probably nothing to worry about moving forward, and Ramirez is still just 27 years old and supposedly worked harder during the offseason coming off a disappointing campaign. As for Tulowitzki, his numbers prorated over 150 games last season look like this: .315-33-109-117-14. Of course, he's missed an average of 37.3 games over the past three seasons, so durability remains a question mark. But it's a terrific set up playing half his games in Coors Field, and this is a player who hit 15 homers with 40 RBI during September. Normally I don't shy away from being opinionated, but this is a debate in which I have no current answer for.
You can't make this stuff up.
You can't make this stuff up, part deux.
Andre Ethier was batting .392/.457/.744 with 11 homers and 38 RBI over 125 at-bats before he suffered a fractured pinkie in mid-May last season. The injury not only cost him 17 games, but it also affected his performance after he returned, as he hit .232 with just five home runs over his next 211 at-bats, later admitting he came back too soon. No one would ever suggest his blazing start was in any way sustainable, but the injury clearly suppressed Ethier's overall production in 2010. During the FSTA draft in February, Ron Shandler selected Ethier in the second round (25th overall), and while I applaud aggressiveness and picks outside the box, it was surprising nevertheless. In shallow mixed leagues with daily transactions, Ethier could be an absolute monster if you use him exclusively against righties, but his fantasy upside is capped with no SB potential.
Fantastic read about a blind man who has essentially taught himself to see.
The Reds have more than a few intriguing pitchers and possibly the best depth of any starting rotation in baseball, and while Edinson Volquez has the most upside among the group, it wouldn't surprise if Travis Wood finished as the team's ace in 2011. He quietly posted a strong 3.3:1 K:BB ratio during his rookie season last year, when he gave up more than three runs in just two of his 17 starts. Wood's ERA could see a bump this year as he's likely to give up more home runs, but as an extreme fly ball pitcher with good control, his WHIP should remain in elite territory (as Gene McCaffrey astutely points out, big groundball pitchers are better in ERA and wins, whereas high fly ball pitchers are superior in WHIP and strikeouts. But the key is being extreme one way or the other). Wood is undervalued and is one of my favorite pitchers to target this season.
Dave Righetti makes Leo Mazzone look like a hack.
On a related note, here's an excellent article on my boy Tim Lincecum.
It sounds like Neftali Feliz is officially going to become a starter in 2011, as he's finally embracing the change in roles. It's good news for Texas, and while some fantasy owners may now be short on saves, and the move makes his projection more volatile, Feliz could still easily return full value while throwing 100 or so more innings. As for the alternative candidates to close for the Rangers, your guess is as good as mine. There's Alexi Ogando, Mark Lowe and Darren O'Day, although Ron Washington has publicly stated he'd prefer to look outside the organization for someone "proven," even though Feliz entered last season with two career saves. As a result, no Rangers reliever is currently worth more than a late round flier.
Totally agree with this. RPI is archaic and needs to go.
This guy seems polite enough, but his ability to follow orders could improve.
LOB|PERCENT| is often viewed as a measure of luck, and while this can absolutely be true over a given sample (maybe even a full year), it's a stat that generally should be considered far more of a skill. Here's a list of the top-15 starting pitchers in LOB|PERCENT| over the past three seasons: Johan Santana, Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Ted Lilly, Shaun Marcum, Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester, John Danks, CC Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren and Tommy Hanson. Notice a trend? Part of this is because good pitchers allow fewer base runners than bad ones, which makes it fundamentally easier to prevent them from scoring. But it could also be argued it's because they are simply superior. Conversely, Ricky Nolasco has the sixth-worst LOB|PERCENT| in baseball over the past three years, and while it's entirely possible he turns in a strong 2011 season if a little luck turns his way combined with those always fine K:BB ratios, we also shouldn't act surprised if Nolasco's ERA once again disappoints compared to his peripherals.
You've got to respect someone who writes a blog about how pitchers are being too pampered these days and invokes the player Tommy John as a counter point, and he was in no way being ironical. And is he really equating "quality starts" with "newer statistics?" Two things that couldn't be on more opposite spectrums. In summation: computers = bad, wins = most important stat for pitchers. There isn't a lower hanging fruit than Murray Chass, but I give you this blog post anyway because I just can't help myself.
I defy someone to come up with a song with better lyrics. Bob Dylan who?
I agree with Scott Pianowski (although not necessarily about my main man Jay Bruce!) in that "closers-in-waiting" have become overpriced, as their cost continues to rise while the extreme volatility of relievers remains the same. That said, Wilton Lopez is an intriguing option likely available with the last pick in most mixed leagues. He came out of nowhere last season and posted a remarkable 50:5 K:BB ratio over 67.0 innings. That walk rate (and one was intentional) was actually the seventh lowest in major league history (minimum 65.0 innings). Lopez had a 28:1 K:BB ratio after the All-Star break and is also an extreme groundball pitcher (55.7 GB|PERCENT|). Moreover, while Mark Melancon is another option, Lopez should be the top alternative to close, and he's only behind a shaky Brandon Lyon, who has recorded a weak 1.79:1 K:BB ratio over the past two years.
A worthwhile read by Jimmy Kimmel regarding the horrible Japan tragedy, in a roundabout way.
Americans are stupid? How dare you. I say this was a sample size issue.
Mark Teixeira is coming off what is widely considered a disappointing season, which is hard to argue since his OPS dropped more than 100 points compared to 2009 and was the lowest of his career since his rookie year. But even while hitting just .256, he still managed 33 homers, 113 runs scored and 108 RBI. Batting in that ballpark and in that lineup is quite advantageous, as Teixeira came to the plate with the third most runners on base in MLB last season. It's really nice when that's your floor. Teixeira is a career .286 hitter, so it's safe to expect a bounce back in batting average, which will in turn improve his counting stats. He's worth a late first-round pick in fantasy drafts, and if you don't get him there, look into trading for him in May, as Teixeira is a career .237/.345/.414 hitter in April.
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