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Rating My Keepers

If you're like me, you are probably in more than one rotisserie league, but there is one that you consider to be your primary league and winning in that one means more to you than any of the others.  For me, it is the D.C. Follies Rotisserie Baseball League, which I've been a part of for approximately 15 years (the league itself has been around longer than that).

For the most part, the league has had the same core group of owners (buddies from college at George Washington University, where I did not attend), and we go through the same trials and tribulations as most other leagues…  disputes over unbalanced trades, trash talking that sometimes gets out of hand, etc., yet the league is always competitive and fun.

I've been fortunate to be crowned league Champs four times during my tenure, but have struggled the past few seasons, and the pressure to win is greater than ever before.  Our draft is set for tomorrow evening, which is earlier than usual, but scheduling the draft gets more and more difficult each year, what with family and work responsibilities.  The early draft date also created a new dilemma, as each team was required to submit their keeper list (up to eight players) by last night.

So, here's where I stand in comparison to the other eight teams in the AL Only, 5x5 auction league (29 roster spots, $278 cap):

Pray For Rain (my team)
Moreland, Mitch (1B, CR)  TEX  $1
Escobar, Alcides (SS, MI)  KAN  $4
Markakis, Nick (OF) BAL  $27
Ordonez, Magglio (OF)   DET  $3
Raburn, Ryan (OF)   DET  $5
Chamberlain, Joba (P) DTD  NYY  $1
Davis, Wade (P) DTD  TAM  $9
Gregg, Kevin (P)   BAL  $8

I'm hoping I don't regret keeping the pitchers I did, but my experience in this league is that the bidding on pitchers goes much higher than they are worth, as do the top-tier players at offensive positions (which is why I hesitantly kept Markakis at $27).  With Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz and Delmon Young also kept by other teams, the asking price on the remaining stud outfielders (Carl Crawford and Josh Hamilton) may be too rich for my blood.  If Gregg pans out as the Oriole closer, he may be a good source of saves for $8, and I am on pace with my target spending of 65-70|PERCENT| on offense and 30-35|PERCENT| on pitching, while still having enough money to go after some big name players (none of the top catchers, first baseman, second baseman or short stops were kept).

Third Degree Birns
Moustakas, Mike (3B) M   KAN  $1
Smoak, Justin (1B, CR)   SEA  $4
Lowrie, Jed (2B, SS, MI)   BOS  $4
Guthrie, Jeremy (P)   BAL  $1
Holland, Derek (P)   TEX  $1
Pineda, Michael (P) M   SEA  $1
Price, David (P)   TAM  $14

I'm not a fan of keeping players that might not help me initially (contracts are only two years in this league), so I'm not sure I would have gone with Moustakas, even at $1, although I guess he can be stashed on the reserve list.  I wish I had a guy like Price ($14) that I could have kept for only half the value of what he will likely produce, and Pineda ($1) has a lot of upside, even if he doesn't start the season in the Mariner rotation.  This team only chose to keep seven players (for a total of $26) and has a lot of cash to work with on draft day.

Austin's Power (last year's runner-up, by only 0.50 points)
Valencia, Danny (3B, CR)   MIN  $2
Pennington, Cliff (SS, MI)   OAK  $7
Brantley, Michael (OF)   CLE  $6
Gutierrez, Franklin (OF)  SEA  $7
Wells, Vernon (OF)   LAA  $16
Bedard, Erik (P) O   SEA  $2
Kazmir, Scott (P)   LAA  $4
Wilson, C.J. (P)   TEX  $3

Last season's tough-luck team fell short of the title, and based on their keepers I believe they will have a tough road ahead of them in 2011.  I love Valencia at only $2, but am not sure I would have committed $29 to the outfield trio of Brantley, Gutierrez and Wells.  If Wilson can give a repeat of last season (a big question mark) he is a bargain at $3, but I'm less enamored with the choice to keep Bedard and Kazmir (at any price).

Boys From Brooklyn (the defending champs)
DeJesus, David (OF)   OAK  $2
Pierre, Juan (OF)   CHA  $18
Ortiz, David (DH)   BOS  $8
Hunter, Tommy (P)   TEX  $3
Nathan, Joe (P) DTD   MIN  $1
Pineiro, Joel (P)   LAA  $4
Rivera, Mariano (P)   NYY  $24

Eventually Rivera has to break down, right?  But he hasn't shown any signs of that yet and will probably be a top three closer this season.  Personally, I haven't spent much on closers since Dennis Eckersley retired.  Conversely, if Nathan ($1) gets his old job back, spending a combined $25 on potentially 75+ saves is very attractive.  I like DeJesus for only $2, but we'll have to see if the move to Oakland hurts his production and, like saves, I prefer not spending much on stolen bases, so Pierre at $18 is a reach in my opinion.

Check Your Shorts
Konerko, Paul (1B, DH, CR)   CHA  $16
Beltre, Adrian (3B, CR)   TEX  $16
Young, Delmon (OF)   MIN  $13
Bard, Daniel (P)   BOS  $3
Cecil, Brett (P)   TOR  $1
Duensing, Brian (P)   MIN  $1
Fister, Doug (P)   SEA  $1
Garcia, Freddy (P)   NYY  $1

Keeping Konerko, Beltre and Young (even at these value price tags) takes this team out of the bidding on some other big names, although their spending was nicely offset by keeping five pitchers for a combined $7 (I'm just not sure I would want any of them other than Bard on my roster).

Rajun Cajuns
Gordon, Alex (OF)   KAN  $2
Choo, Shin-Soo (OF)   CLE  $25
Cruz, Nelson (OF)   TEX  $30
Hellickson, Jeremy (P) DTD   TAM  $6
Jackson, Edwin (P)   CHA  $1
Scherzer, Max (P)   DET  $16
Thornton, Matt (P)   CHA  $3
Valverde, Jose (P)   DET  $17

Taking an approach that was in contrast to virtually all the other teams in this league, their keeper list is packed with studs, but at a cost that is close to what they would have been on draft day (maybe even higher than what the bidding would have been).  You can't argue that Choo and Nelson will produce, and their absence from the available player list will likely drive the cost of other outfielders up (see my comments above), but this team will be hard pressed to fill out their roster with other big names as they get out bid by teams with lots of money to spend.  The same can be said of their pitching, as they may have over paid on Valverde, but Thornton ($3) looks great given the latest news out of Chicago.  Still, I never like walking into the draft having already spent $100.

Stuffed Shirts
Arencibia, J.P. (C)   TOR  $1
Ellis, Mark (2B, MI)   OAK  $1
Encarnacion, Edwin (3B, CR)   TOR  $1
Rivera, Juan (OF)   TOR  $1
Drabek, Kyle (P)   TOR  $1
Matsuzaka, Daisuke (P)   BOS  $7
Perez, Chris (P)   CLE  $3
Porcello, Rick (P)   DET  $1

Anytime you can go into a draft with more money than anyone else, especially with decent keepers on your roster, you are at an advantage.  Arencibia ($1) has a lot of upside at a position that is somewhat scarce, and you can't argue with filling roster holes with the likes of Ellis, Encarnacion, Rivera, Drabek and Porcello for a combined $5.  Consistent with my "cheap saves" approach, Perez at $3 is a great choice.  I probably would have left Matsuzaka off the list and gone with only seven keepers at $9, rather than eight keepers at $16.  Either way, the rest of us need to get this team spending money fast.

The Farkin's Corksockers
Barton, Daric (1B, CR) DTD   OAK  $1
Aviles, Mike (2B, MI)   KAN  $1
Cahill, Trevor (P)   OAK  $1
Gonzalez, Gio (P)   OAK  $1
Lewis, Colby (P)   TEX  $3
Rodney, Fernando (P)   LAA  $1
Soria, Joakim (P)   KAN  $20
Uehara, Koji (P) DTD   BAL  $2

This team will be staying up past midnight all season to catch the late game results, starting out with four California-based players, including three Athletics (two of which are pitchers).  Having traded Cahill to this team last season in an effort to make a run at the league leaders (in which I failed), I'm personally hoping he can't repeat his 2010 performance.  Not much else I like on this keeper list and again, for personal reasons, am hoping this team regrets its decision to go with Uehara.

West Coast AMO
Avila, Alex (C)   DET  $1
Ackley, Dustin (2B) M   SEA  $1
Escobar, Yunel (SS, MI)   TOR  $1
Brignac, Reid (2B, SS, MI)   TAM  $2
Arrieta, Jake (P)   BAL  $1
Britton, Zach (P) M   BAL  $1
Danks, John (P)   CHA  $18
Haren, Dan (P)   LAA  $20

Here's another team that chose to gamble on a few players that may start the year on the minors, but also found some pitching gems in Danks and Haren for a combined $38.  Since this is a standard rotisserie league (two catchers, a middle infielder, a corner infielder, five outfielders, etc.), you can do a lot worse than Avila and Escobar at $1 each.

So, there you have it.  Feel free to share your thoughts and to follow along with this league on RotoWire.com – League Name: D.C. Follies.