Over the past three seasons, Alex Rodriguez has averaged 31.6 homers, 109.3 RBI and 12 steals while batting .286, which looks even better when you consider he's also missed an average of 29 games per year over that span. He's in the decline phase at age 35, but he also benefits from hitting in one of baseball's best lineups and hitter's parks. Consistently a top-five pick entering last season, why is Rodriguez now commonly falling out of round one altogether in fantasy drafts? The only difference I see is that he enters 2011 feeling healthier than he has in years. Maybe Evan Longoria goes nuts one of these years, but he hasn't shown any real improvement over the past two campaigns and plays in a park that ranked as the toughest to hit in all of baseball last season, when he managed just 22 home runs. David Wright has been all over the map recently, and he struck out a career-high 161 times in 2010, so I'm not sure why ARod is typically the third third baseman off the board. Rodriguez is an inner circle Hall of Famer, and if he's truly back to full health, a monster season should follow, even at his advanced age.
Things continue to get worse for Cleveland Cavalier fans.
Clayton Kershaw is my favorite pitcher to target this year. The big lefty is coming off a season in which he struck out 212 batters over 204.1 innings at age 22. Some may suggest he's been lucky with a career BABIP of .284 and a HR/FB ratio of just 6.3|PERCENT|, and while that may very well regress some, it's pretty safe to say he's one of the toughest pitcher's to hit in all of baseball. Over the last two years, Kershaw has held opposing batters to the lowest slugging percentage in MLB. As a fly ball pitcher, it's not ideal the Dodgers project to field one of the worst outfield defenses in the game, but playing in the NL West certainly helps. Kershaw still walks too many batters, but his control went from 4.79/9 in 2008 to 3.57/9 last season. That number improved even more after the All-Star break, when he posted a 3.03 BB/9 ratio. Kershaw is the No. 4 fantasy pitcher on my board and don't be surprised if he wins the Cy Young this season.
Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder are similar players typically going off the board around the same time in fantasy leagues. Both are coming off disappointing seasons, and each have a .279 career batting average. Citizens Bank Park isn't as good of a hitter's park as it's generally considered, but it is more favorable than Miller Park. But Fielder is nearly five years younger than Howard, who is actually older than Albert Pujols. First base remains one of the deeper positions, but especially with the health concerns of Kendrys Morales and Justin Morneau, it tends to get thin quick. So who you got, Howard or Fielder?
I wouldn't mind grabbing Ike Davis later if I miss out on the elite first basemen. He may be unlikely to ever become a superstar like the Mets' organization envisions, but there's plenty to like here. Davis should hit in the middle of New York's lineup, and his .295/.362/.443 line against left-handers was impressive as a 23-year-old rookie last season. So were his 72 walks and his terrific defense. If you miss out on the first two tiers of first basemen, Davis is a fine fallback option who can be had much cheaper.
This is a pretty remarkable story about the first person in the U.S. to undergo a full face transplant.
Erik Bedard has allowed just two runs with 10 strikeouts over 10.2 innings this spring, and while the results are obviously meaningless in that sample, the important part is that he's healthy. Of course, he hasn't reached even 85 innings in any of the past three seasons, but that's also why he'll come at such a discount. A healthy Bedard, which may prove to be an oxymoron still, could really turn a nice profit. His stuff has always ranked among the best in baseball, and pitching in Safeco Park with a strong Seattle defense behind him helps as well. Few late round fliers offer as much upside as Bedard.
That's one expensive dog.
Pablo Sandoval saw his OPS drop by more than 200 points last season and ended the year as a bench player on a team that struggled with offense, as he was one of fantasy baseball's biggest busts. His BABIP fell to .294 after finishing above .350 during each of his first two years in the league, and his weight and conditioning became a serious problem. So while normally it's best to take offseason stories about players being in the best shape of their lives with a grain of salt, it was nice to see Sandoval got in shape over the winter. In fact, he dropped nearly 40 pounds and reduced his body fat from 30 percent to 19. It's a big deal to help his flexibility, as Sandoval struggled mightily from the right side of the plate last season (.227/.284/.305). Regardless of his weight, plate discipline has always been a major issue for Sandoval. He swung at a greater percentage of pitches than any hitter in the National League last season, but then again, he hit .330 with a similar approach in 2009. Sandoval has impressed this spring, and remember, he's one season removed from posting a .943 OPS as a 23-year-old, so he's an excellent bounce back candidate.
This comedian bought a bunch of 800 numbers that were just one number off customer service lines for major companies, which is a pretty brilliant idea. Hilarity ensues.
While there's admittedly some risk taking a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery who hasn't been on the mound since 2009, Joe Nathan is one of my favorite closer targets this season. He may not pitch three days in a row right away, but he feels healthy now a full 13 months removed from surgery. Reports of his velocity have varied this spring, but for the most part, they have been positive, and Nathan is clearly still Minnesota's guy in the ninth inning. He hasn't had an ERA over 2.10 since 2005, nor one that even reached 3.00 since 2000, which is remarkable. Moreover, he's now pitching in a park that was by far the toughest to homer in last season. Nathan should be close to the top of the second tier of closers.
Meet the Dance Assassin.
This year seems like a good time to buy Nick Markakis. His home runs have dropped each of the past three years, bottoming out at a measly 12 last season. Even during last year's disappointing campaign, he managed a .370 OBP with 45 doubles. Markakis hits too many groundballs to ever be much more than a 20-homer guy, but more fly balls should leave the yard in 2011, as his HR/FB ratio last year was a career-low 6.1|PERCENT|. He's a career .298 hitter also capable of swiping 10 bags, and he'll be hitting either second or third in a revamped Baltimore lineup that suddenly looks pretty loaded. Still just 27 years old, it's entirely possible Markakis' best season of his career has yet to happen.
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