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The Newcomers

Every year it happens. The top-10 gets party-crashed by someone not on the preseason invite. Every year. Like clockwork.

And for everyone out there clamoring for a championship, for everyone scrambling to fight against injury or prevent upset, these are the guys they covet. The nobodys that become the no-way-you-saw-him-comings. The new guys. And after two weeks of play they are still nearly impossible to predict. There are too many factors that could change what we think may happen now.

But it's always fun to predict the future. That's half the reason we play the game.

Looking at the landscape of the league after two weeks, I've come up with two names for each skill position (QB, RB, WR) that will be top-10 at their respective positions by end of year that no one would have predicted. These will be my "locks". I will also throw out three others at each position that will make a big jump as well, though fall short of the top-10 at their positions.

And I'll do it in reverse order, starting now with the:

I Think They Cans

QB:

1. Rex Grossman, WAS – Sexy Rexy has resurrected his career under Mike Shanahan in Washington. Though he doesn't have elite weapons to work with, he has a solid receiving corps, a good run game to take pressure off the pass and most importantly, complete control of this offense. In five starts as a Skin he's passed for 11 TD's and over 1,400 yards. I'm not a fan of extrapolating numbers to predict a 16-game season. There's no way he'll throw for the 4,600 yards and 35 scores that translates to, but hitting 3,800 and 26 I think is good chance, putting him in the neighborhood of 10-12 at QB.

2. Kevin Kolb, AZ – The division and the presence of Larry Fitzgerald will be enough to assure him at least a 3,000-yard season. If he can manage at least decent totals in matchups with Pitt, Baltimore and Philly, his only stiff passing defenses he faces, Kolb may even approach the 4,000-yard mark. His downside is the lack of other playmakers he has to spread the ball around to and that will ultimately net him in the low-20's for scores, keeping him just outside the gates of the top-12.

3. Andy Dalton, CIN – I'm a believer. Have been since before he was drafted. And after starting his career with over 400 yards through six quarters with 3 scores, no picks and a 66|PERCENT| completion percentage, I see top-15 fantasy upside this year. He has only five obviously tough matchups all year with Pitt and Baltimore twice and a home game with Houston, so if his remaining receivers can stay healthy (and unsuspended), I see a mature, young passer that's only going to improve as the year progresses and post numbers that would otherwise challenge Manning's rookie records if they weren't already going to be broken by another rook this year. Except Dalton will throw no more than half the 28 picks Manning did.

RB:

1. Daniel Thomas, MIA – This is a hunch because there's really too small a sample size to make an accurate assessment of Thomas. But he ran very well on a tough, revamped Texans defense last week to the tune of 5.9 yards a carry. With Chad Henne throwing the ball better teams will have to honor the pass and that may open holes for Thomas. He has little competition for carries from Reggie Bush, so it's not inconceivable that he could finish the year with somewhere around 275 carries, 1,200 yards and 8-10 scores, provided his size translates to goal line success.

2. James Starks, GB – It's a timeshare now, but Starks has clearly established himself as the dynamic part of the duo with Ryan Grant. His upside is tremendous should something happen to Grant as it did last year and even if the vet stays healthy, Starks may outright steal the job with his better on-field production. At 6.8 yards per attempt, he's ripping up yards at the second-best clip of all running backs behind only Michael Turner's 6.9, and though that number is sure to come down, if he can keep it above five per, he should be in line for just over 1,000 rushing and a half-dozen or so scores. If he can tack on a couple hundred more in the receiving game he'll be just on the outside looking in.

3. Isaac Redman, PITRashard Mendenhall had over 400 touches last year counting his three playoffs games. By no means does that guarantee he breaks down this year, but were it to happen, I can see Redman taking over without skipping a beat. He's not as fast as Mendenhall but he's just as big (6-0, 230) and runs very, very hard and decisively. He hits holes with aggression and has enough wiggle to avoid tackles but can run through them all the same. It's a major longshot, but hey, that's what you'd call any of the yearly surprises. I highly doubt anyone called Peyton Hillis as a stud last year.

WR:

1. Eric Decker, DEN – If it wasn't for the presence of Brandon Lloyd, I could completely see him knocking down the top-10 door. Obviously he's off to a great start, and even though I actually predict he will out-produce Lloyd on the season, the mere presence of last year's top fantasy receiver stealing targets, catches, yards and scores will prevent Decker from making the leap this year. If Orton can play up to his abilities, both should be just over 1,000 yards with Decker going for about 1,100 and 8 scores.

2. Jordy Nelson, GB – With the presence of Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley, Nelson can never be covered by an opponent's top corner. Standing 6-foot-3, 217 lbs. and with deceptive speed, Nelson presents just another big matchup problem for defenses that Aaron Rodgers can and often will exploit. As phenomenally talented as Jennings and Finley are, would it shock anyone to see Nelson lead this team in receiving? For him to post 1,100 yards this season and in the neighborhood of 10 scores would not surprise me at all.

3. Antonio Brown, PIT – Though he has yet to post a big outing this season, I'm confident Brown will break out before long. He is a dynamic talent that brings another major deep threat to the Steelers passing game. Through two weeks he's tied with Hines Ward for second on the team with 15 targets, and as the year progresses I expect Brown to separate from Ward in every category and take over the No. 2 role in Pittsburgh. Leagues that reward big plays will earn more points from Brown, but he could still make a run at top-15 in standard play as well, possibly with 900-1,000 yards and 6-8 scores.

"Locks"

QB:

1. Cam Newton, CAR – No I don't think I'm straining any muscles with this pick. And no, I'm not of the belief, like some, that Newton's ridiculously hot start is a product of two bad passing defenses. While I'll concede some teams will catch up to him at some point and game-plan to slow him down for a week or two, I'm of the firm belief Newton will have the last laugh with a rookie year for the record books. I genuinely believe he will top 4,000 yards passing (albeit barely) and I think he tacks on another 500 rushing. His scores won't be fantastic and he will turn it over like a rookie, but those yardage numbers will be enough to push him into the top-10, maybe top 6 or 7.

2. Ryan Fitzpatricks, BUF – Fitzpatrick makes the leap this year and buys himself job security for the next 3-5 years in Buffalo. And in the process he'll help a lot of fantasy teams make the leap this year as well. After taking over as the starter last year, he's thrown for nearly 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns in 15 games. Maybe my math is off (I was an English major after all), but if he can continue that level of play, he'll easily post top-10 fantasy QB numbers. With already seven scores in two weeks, it would be a disappointment if he doesn't hit 28 on the year, and personally, I think he will top that.

RB:

1. Ben Tate, HOUArian Foster will fade into the background this season much like Steve Slaton did in 2009 after posting a monster rookie season. That's not to say Foster won't make a comeback next year, but with a bum hammy likely to hamper him all season, the backfield job belongs to Tate, who has already taken off running with it to the tune of a league-leading 47 carries. After two weeks he's third in the league with 219 rushing yards and I believe he ties an NFL record this week at New Orleans by becoming the second running back in league history to start his career off with three straight 100-yard games (Cadillac Williams was the first). All told, I see Tate racking up a 1,300-yard rushing season and finishing right around 5th at the RB position. Houston just keeps on churning out those big-time runners, making it three studs in four years.

2. Ryan Mathews, SDMike Tolbert can have the goal line. Mathews doesn't need it. He will slowly but surely take most of the carries between the 20's and climb up in the ranks of the top rushers. He brings the prototype build of a feature back with the dynamic running abilities of a smaller back and the speed to break a long one. His hands have obviously improved and that has made him a strong weapon in the passing game. While Tolbert may lead the entire league in catches, it is Mathews that is second to only Matt Forte in receiving yards for a running back and he's averaging 122 total yards per game through two weeks. Though he may not be among the tops in touchdowns this year, Mathews will be right up there with the best in total yards, a good candidate for about 1,600+, and that production will land him around 6-8 in the RB rankings.

WR:

1. David Nelson, BUF – That's right. I'm "locking" this in. Nelson finishes 10th at the wide receiver position in 2011. He's not especially dynamic. Not a deep threat. Not the quickest guy. He won't break a bunch of tackles and hit a home run. What he will do though is catch a ton of balls and present a long-limbed (he's 6-5), trustworthy red zone target for Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's among the top-15 in targets and catches already and those numbers will only go up as he builds greater chemistry with Fitzpatrick and the Bills account for the loss of slot receiver Roscoe Parrish. While his upside is limited, his ceiling is 90+ catches, 1,200 yards and 10 scores and I think he comes dangerously close to the ceiling this season. And yes, he has that ceiling even with Steve Johnson on the other side.

2. Danario Alexander, STL – Upside galore here. Alexander is huge (6-5, 217), can run by defenders and gets off the ground in the red zone. Sam Bradford needs a weapon like this desperately in Josh McDaniels' offense and that was almost painstakingly apparent when Alexander posted 122 yards and a score on Monday Night Football versus the G-Men on ONLY three catches. If his bionic knee can hold up for 14 more games, Alexander should become a monster for St. Louis. As his targets rise and he continues to build chemistry with Bradford the league will be witness to another (there's only so many) receiver with no ceiling (of course barring the health of his horribly bad knees). Yes, I agree this "lock" carries a ton of risk because his playing a full season at full strength is a major "if" considering his medical history, and that's why he's listed here behind Nelson, who's a much safer option. But I'm blinded by potential here. I'm calling for him to finish approximately 8th among wideouts with 1,200 yards and 10-12 scores.

So there you have it—a dozen or so guys to trade for early (because aside from maybe Redman, they should all be owned) before others realize what they have.

Will I be lucky to have any of these "locks" come through? Of course. Will I be shocked if they do? Not a chance.

Good luck to all in Week 3, and happy hunting on those trades