Every season we find a few surprise stars that seemingly come from nowhere and reward those owners who had the foresight to draft them, or to grab them off the waiver wire. Last year it was Arian Foster, Peyton Hillis and Michael Vick. As we reach the mid-point of the 2011 season, let's take a look at this year's biggest fantasy surprises. If any of these studs are on your team, congratulations. If not, I've also identified a few underperformers worthy of your consideration for the remainder of the season (perhaps you can convince their current owners to part ways with them?).
First-Half Surprise Star QB: Cam Newton, Carolina
Let me start off by acknowledging an article I wrote on this site back in April in which I stated that "unless you play in a dynasty or keeper league that allows you to draft and hold-on to players for several years, the N.F.L. draft has (in my humble opinion) very little impact on fantasy football drafts this season." Ouch! Was I wrong or what?
Newton's passing numbers (2,103 yards, eight TDs, nine INTs) aren't great, but they are better than I expected. The difference has been his rushing stats. "Michael Vick 2.0" leads all quarterbacks with seven rushing touchdowns (only Adrian Peterson has more with eight), and his 266 yards rushing are second among quarterbacks (Vick has 372, but 0 TDs).
Second-Half Stud QB: Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay
Talk about inconsistent. Following his four interceptions on kickoff weekend, Freeman threw for 303 yards and two scores with no interceptions in week two, only to toss 187 yards and two more interceptions without a touchdown the next game. However, the Buccaneers play several teams with very poor passing defenses the rest of the way, and we know Freeman has the skills to succeed. LeGarrette Blount returns from his injury after the bye, making Freeman even better. He has probably been used as a bye week back-up and should be available for trade on the cheap. I expect him to post solid numbers the rest of the way, facing weak pass defenses like New England, New Orleans, Jacksonville and Tennessee, as Tampa Bay makes a run at the playoffs.
First-Half Surprise Star RB: Fred Jackson, Buffalo
Entering my 2011 drafts I had Jackson ranked 20th among running backs, despite his having rushed for 1,062 yards in 2009 and 927 in 2010. Like many, the "threat" of C.J. Spiller taking touches away from Jackson concerned me. Through six games this season, he has 880 total yards (106 attempts, 601 yards, 5.7 avg., 0 fumbles, six touchdowns, 24 receptions, 279 yards). He is now a top five back. As for Spiller, he has 26 touches.
Second-Half Stud RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville
I have to admit I have a soft spot in my heart for MJD (he helped lead me to a championship a few years ago). And, while the Jaguars have been awful for quite some time, he has been the lone bright spot. With knee problems a distant memory, and no one to challenge him for opportunities, Jones-Drew will be the workhorse. Coming off his three-fumble performance last week, now is the time to try and trade for him. He has 751 total yards, but only two touchdowns. As rookie QB Blaine Gabbert develops, MJD's scoring opportunities will increase. Plus, the Jaguars remaining schedule is soft, including four games against Houston and Indianapolis.
First-Half Surprise Star WR/TE: Jimmy Graham, New Orleans
Unless I'm in a league that requires you start a tight end, I generally avoid them unless I can get an Antonio Gates. So it shouldn't shock anyone that I ranked Graham 41st among receivers (WR/TE combined). Meanwhile, he has five receiving touchdowns (only Megatron and Wes Welker have more) and his 674 receiving yards are over yards more than any other tight end in all of football.
Second-Half Stud WR/TE: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
Fitzgerald was likely the first or second receiver drafted in most fantasy leagues this season. And, while his 505 yards receiving and two touchdowns on 31 catches are not bad, he has seriously disappointed his owners. Take advantage of that and try to get him for the second half of the season. The Cardinals often play from behind, which means they will be passing, especially with a dinged Beanie Wells at running back. It is only a matter of time before Kevin Kolb and Fitzgerald get in sync with each other (just last week Kolb targeted Fitzgerald 10 times), and we all know what he is capable of. Fitzgerald's YPC (16.3) is actually a career best, and he has scored 10 or more touchdowns in three of his last four seasons. He may be the most difficult to obtain, based on reputation alone, but it is worth trying.
Good luck the rest of the way and, as Frank Gifford said, "Football is like nuclear warfare. There are no winners, only survivors."