Zen and the Art of NBA Fantasy Drafting
In preparation for my upcoming NBA fantasy leagues, I've been doing lots of mock drafts at Mock Draft Central and a few over at Yahoo! and ESPN to prepare for the drafts I'll have with leagues on those host sites.
Mock Draft Central is great because it doesn't come with the same preset rankings from the other sites. Their average draft position (ADP) reports show trends that are developing in drafts, highlighting changes that we, as managers, should be making to our draft strategies.
If you know your league is being hosted on Yahoo! or ESPN, it's good to get into a couple mock drafts there as well, because the pre-rankings at each site will strongly influence much of the draft order, especially in leagues with less experienced players.
When planning for a draft on any of the given sites, I like to take the site's default draft rankings and look for guys that I can get good value on.
I did my last mock draft on Yahoo! just last night. Here are a few players in the top 60 who I think are undervalued in their default|STAR| rankings.
|STAR|One important thing to note about Yahoo!'s default rankings is that, no matter how you customize your league, their rankings are based on a standard 9-category scoring system. A 9-cat. system use the typical eight positive stats of FG|PERCENT|, FT|PERCENT|, points, rebounds, assists, 3-pt made, steals, and blocks and then the negative stat of turnovers. If you're like me, you try to avoid leagues that use turnovers as a category. Therefore, when drafting for a Yahoo! league that isn't 9-cat., it's important to seek out appropriate 8-cat or other relevant|STAR||STAR| rankings that account for only the stat categories you're using in your league.
|STAR||STAR|RotoWire's cheat sheet pages can give you such customized rankings based on your league's setup and using the projections we've established for each player. This can help you get the upper hand on other managers.
Undervalued
Carmelo Anthony - 17 - I'm willing to take Anthony at the end of the first round this season. There's an argument to be made that he's worth taking as high as fourth overall. He went from averaging 0.8 three-pointers on 33 percent shooting with Denver to hitting 2.0 three-pointers per game with the Knicks and converting them at a 42 percent clip. With an offseason to plan how to better use Anthony within his offense, it'll be interesting to see how high the forward's ceiling is playing in D'Antoni's high-powered offense.
Tyreke Evans - 58 - After his 20-5-5 rookie season, a feat only accomplished by three other players in the history of the NBA (Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and LeBron James), Evans was worthy of a late second round pick in last year's drafts. His struggles shooting last season affected his numbers across the board, and several pre-draft rankings have him slotted far too low for my liking. I'm willing to take Evans at the back end of the second round if point guards go heavy in the first two rounds, and I'm not letting him pass me in the fourth round of drafts. If he drops past the fourth round of any drafts, there's a grave injustice being committed. Don't get hung up on his stats from last year. Evans had a foot injury that affected his output all season. If he's healthy, we should see him take a great step in his development this season.
Danilo Gallinari - 56 - When Carmelo Anthony was traded to the Knicks, the Nuggets got back a plethora of quality players to integrate into their rotation, and they beautifully used all of them to great effect in reality. Unfortunately, the excess of quality players meant everyone's minutes were shortened to accommodate the team. With three of Nuggets' end of the season rotation players stuck in China for this season (Wilson Chandler, J.R. Smith, Kenyon Martin) and Raymond Felton traded to Portland, we should see the remaining primary Nuggets play huge roles for the team and in fantasy this season. Gallinari, Ty Lawson, and Aaron Afflalo (RFA) should all play significantly greater minutes and produce beyond their current pre-draft rankings.
Overvalued
Greg Monroe - 45 - I'm nitpicking a little bit here. Monroe is ranked one spot ahead of Marcin Gortat. I love both players this season, but their points, percentages, and rebounds are relatively similar enough that Gortat's better block numbers will have me taking Gortat over Monroe in all one-year leagues. With all that said, it should be pointed out how amazing Monroe was after the All-Star break last season. In his last 25 games, Monroe averaged 13.7 points (58 percent), 10.0 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 0.8 blocks. Those steals (1.6) are uncanny for a big man to average. Dwight Howard (1.4 steals) was the only center in the league to average better than 1.2 on the season last year.
TODAY'S NEWS
The free agency rumors continue to fly. The league will allow players and the other humans that run the team's front offices to interact again starting Monday. Several free agents have already set up a litany of meetings with their potential new teams. Coaches still won't be allowed to instruct practices, but this will allow the free agents to get in line to sign contracts as soon as the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) is completed Thursday and free agency officially opens Friday.
Kevin Love lost 30 pounds this offseason, and I shudder to think what this kid is going to do with even more athleticism to go with his strength and intelligence. Thoroughly regretting not grabbing him in my keeper league last season.
The Raptors came out and squashed the "Jonas Valanciunas coming to the NBA this season" story today.
Ed Davis put on some weight this offseason, and it'd be a pretty big surprise if he didn't start at center for the Raptors this season with the team expected to move Andrea Bargnani back to his natural position of power forward. If you don't have Davis as a late-round target in your drafts, get on the boat. In the final eight games of last season, he averaged 12.9 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks in 35 minutes. The kid is legit, too legit to quit.
Marcus Thornton is a restricted free agent, and the Hornets are supposedly interested in signing him. Why? They weren't willing to start him at shooting guard last year before they traded him for Carl Landry. I don't get it.
The most exciting potential destination for a free agent would be Nene to the Pacers, in my opinion. This is just a momentary obsession, but I think he's the kind of signing that could make that team a true threat in the East. Having him play his more natural position of power forward next to Roy Hibbert would be great.
Trivia Time
|STAR|No cheating
Who won the MVP award in the NBA's last lockout season of 1998-99, and how old was he?
Gave you a hint there, he's a dude.
Find me on the Twitter (It's on the Internets.)
@rotowirekylenba