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Staff Keeper League Notes: Auction and Draft Analysis

Throughout the season I'll be blogging about the on goings in the Staff Keeper League. First a little context on the league. It's a typical 5x5 roto league with 18 teams. Rosters consist of 23 starters (2 Cs, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CR, 5 OFs, UT, and 9 pitchers), seven bench spots, and 10 minor league spots (20 or fewer games of major league experience). Starting roster spots are filled through a $260 budget auction. Reserves and minor league rosters are filled through a draft.

Keeper Rules: Teams are allowed to keep 15 starters and 10 minor leaguers. The first year a player is on your team he's in his A contract. You're allowed to keep the player the following season (his B year) for the same price. Once the player reaches the third year you can keep him in his C year at the same price (but also the last season you're allowed to keep him) or give him a D contract and extend him for $5 per year after his C year. An example from my team is Ben Zobrist, he was $5B in 2011 and I had a decision on whether to keep him at $5C or extend him. I extended his contract to $15 and now I have him until 2014. If you keep a player from the reserve draft they become a $5A while minor leaguers that reach 21+ games can be kept at $3A.

With that out of the way we can talk about the auction and draft. Here are my keepers:

C: M. Olivo $3B, J. Saltamacchia $4C

1B: A. Lind $16B

2B: M. Aviles $1C

3B: D. Freese $6B

SS: D. Gordon $3A

MI: Bonficacio $1B

CI: F. Freeman $3A

OF: Zobrist $15D14

P: G. Gonzalez $13D14, Scherzer $11D12, Zimmerman $3B, Volquez $2B, Soria $25C, Motte $2C

Minor Leaguers:

D. Pomeranz, P

R. Erlin, P

J. Lyles, P

T. McNutt, P

Z. Stewart, P

H. Rodriguez, 2B

Key guys I dropped: Corey Hart $22B, James Loney $4B, Aroldis Chapman $15B, Nyjer Morgan $12B, Todd Frazier $3A

Looking at my team I had a lot of flexibility at infield but almost nothing at outfield. I extended Gio and Zobrist long term and made the questionable decision to keep Soria. I struggled with this move. His ERA and WHIP spiked last year but his BB and K rate were on par with past seasons especially if you factor out his poor April. His fastball velocity had not changed and his groundball rate was nothing out of the ordinary. The only numbers that really stuck out were his strand and home run rates. So I felt he would be have a strong year. Of course our keeper deadline was well before his elbow injury. Looking back it was still kind of silly to keep him because it was unlikely he would have gone for that price at auction.
Going into the auction I had $152 which put me about middle of the pack. I wanted to use the bulk of my money to grab two hitters to help with batting average and home runs and one stud starting pitcher. I was willing to spend around $130 for those three spots. I decided not to go after a top tier closer and instead target some low to mid level guys/closers in waiting. Here's a list of the top players available at each position:

C: Mauer, Napoli, Montero, Weiters

1B: A. Gonzalez, A. Pujols, M. Cabrera, Konerko, Teixeira

2B: Uggla, R. Weeks, Ackley

3B: Longeria, Wright, ARod, Zimmerman, ARamirez

SS: Tulowitzki, Jeter, Al. Ramirez

OF: Kemp, Hamilton, Holliday, Choo, Cruz, Ichiro, Ethier, Hart, Crawford

SP: Verlander, Halladay, Price, F. Hernandez, Lincecum, Gallardo, Weaver, Haren, Shields, Cain, Darvish, Josh Johnson

RP: Rivera, Papelbon, B. Wilson, Marmol, Bell, Street

Now inflation plays a HUGE part in the staff league auction. Due to the high number of keepers and teams there are usually not many top players available. This year seemed a bit different. I haven't gone back to look at previous auctions but it just felt like there was way more talent available. Typically the best hitters cost $60-$70 and pitchers $40-$50 (Verlander went for $60 in 2011 which might have been the league record for a pitcher). Here's some of the auction highlights:

Kemp: $65

Pujols: $63

Cabrera: $61

AGonzalez: $60

Tulowitzki: $59

Longeria: $53

Teixeria: $47

Holliday: $42

Wright: $42

Hamilton: $40

Choo: $40

Uggla: $36

Weeks: $34

Weiters: $32

Napoli: $31

Mauer: $30

Jeter: $29

Halladay: $45

Verlander: $43

Lincecum: $40

FHernandez: $38

Price: $35

Rivera: $28

Papelbon: $25

I was able to get Kemp for $65, Lincecum for $40 and Ar. Ramirez for $29 totaling $134. Did I overpay a bit for Kemp? Maybe but he fills a large hole on my team. At the time I was happy with the price for Lincecum but later in the auction pitchers went for lower prices. Haren went for $30, Weaver for $31, Gallardo $31. Closers also went for less than I expected. Heath Bell cost $18, Brian Wilson $16, Carlos Marmol $17. Here's the rest of my team:

Pastornicky $4

Quentin $8

ADirks $1

Peavy $4

L. Lynn $1

Now the reserve and minor league draft. Owners have to decide between minor leaguers several years from making an impact vs. adding major league depth. My minor league roster was deep in pitching and very light on hitting due to Dee Gordon and Freddie Freeman promotions. I wanted to target hitting prospects early then go for bench depth. I took Jake Marisnick in the first round but by the time it got back to me the hitting prospects had thinned. Often the best prospects are taken during the auction. Harper was taken last year at $8 and kept. Trevor Bauer was bought for $9 this year. Most prospects available are either players from the 2011 MLB draft or guys who finally broke out at the minor league level. I took fliers on relief pitchers (Rex Brothers, Eric O'Flatherty) and grabbed outfielders to fill in for Quentin and Dirks - in case he doesn't win a starting spot (Huff, Saunders, Bogusevic, Gomes). Here's how my draft went:

Reserves:

Rex Brothers, P

Aubrey Huff, 1B

Eric O'Flaherty, P

Brian Bogusevic, OF

Zach Britton, P

Jonny Gomes, OF

Michael Saunders, OF

Minors:

Jake Marisnick, OF

Dante Bichette Jr, 3B

Tommy La Stella, 2B

Dan Vogelbach, 1B