DFS College Basketball: Sunday Preview

DFS College Basketball: Sunday Preview

This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.

The NCAA Tournament is down to 32 teams, and DraftKings is putting up a $20k top prize for the eight-game, Round of 32 slate Sunday. Cade Cunningham ($9,800 DK) and Ayo Dosunmu ($9,500 DK) rightfully lead the way in salary, though both players have priced themselves out of "must-play" status, especially in down-tempo games against respectable defenses (especially in Dosunmu's case). Each superstar should definitely be in the player pool when mass entering, but we'll focus this column on the next tier and beyond. Both the Syracuse/West Virginia and Florida/Oral Roberts games are neck in neck in terms of the highest over/under of the day, so that's where we'll kick things off.

Targets

1. Derek Culver, F, West Virginia ($7,900 DK)

It's been six games since Culver has hit 4x at this price, but he's also brought a decent floor, scoring 27.25 or more in each of his last floor. On Sunday, he'll draw a Syracuse team that ranks No. 339 in the country in defensive rebounding rate. Opposing center Marek Dolezaj is also playing through a broken finger, which isn't helping the rebounding effort. West Virginia will carry the second-highest implied total of the slate against the Syracuse zone, which has been responsible for the No. 92 ranking in KenPom's defensive efficiency – the fourth-lowest of teams still alive in the dance. For similar reasons, Jalen Bridges ($5,600 DK) is in play as well.

2. Colin Castleton, F, Florida ($6,800 DK)

Omar Payne sat out the opening-round victory over Virginia Tech, which allowed Castleton to pick up 47.5 DK points across 43 minutes in the OT win. His price only went up $100, and he now finds himself in the highest over/under game of the day against an Oral Roberts team that is outside the top-300 in the country in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. The Golden Eagles also have the lowest defensive efficiency mark out of any team remaining in the tournament, per KenPom.

3. Justin Moore, G, Villanova ($5,900 DK)

A date with North Texas isn't a defensive matchup anyone looks forward to, but there's still room to profit from Moore as he takes the reins at point guard for an injured Collin Gillespie (knee). Moore logged 37 minutes in the opening round against Winthrop and put up 4.9x, and his price only goes up $100. Granted, the tempo will be much slower here, but the ball is in Moore's hands enough for him to hit value once again.

4. Marcus Sasser, G, Houston ($6,100 DK)

DeJon Jarreau is presumably out with a hip injury after playing just one minute in the opener against Cleveland State, leaving Sasser as the leading candidate to take over point guard duties. Sasser was already a starter so we don't get much of a price break here, but he still seems like the primary beneficiary. Quentin Grimes ($8,900 DK) gets a usage bump as well, while Tramon Mark ($4,700 DK) could be in consideration for salary relief after scoring 25.0+ DK points in back-to-back games.

5. Mac McClung, G, Texas Tech ($5,800 DK)

McClung is at one of his lowest price points of the season, checking it as the third-most expensive Texas Tech player despite him owning the team's highest usage rate. Saturday will be one of the year's most up-tempo games for the Red Raiders, and the Razorbacks are also allowing opponents to shoot 33 percent from distance, good for No. 128 in the country. That happens to be McClung's strong suit, as he's shooting a career-best 34.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Fades

1. Jared Butler, G, Baylor ($8,700 DK)

There's just no way to squeeze in Butler on Sunday and expect to have enough salary left over for either Cunningham or Dosunmu. The Badgers have that slow tempo/tough defense combo that DFS players dread, and the unit collectively held UNC's top-4 guards to 9-of-30 shooting in the Round of 64. IF there's a spot to target in this matchup, it's likely Wisconsin's rebounding ineffectiveness, which can be capitalized on by buying low on a player like Mark Vital ($5,200 DK).

2. Marek Dolezaj, F, Syracuse ($7,100 DK)

Dolezaj gets a $800 price hike to a cost that is almost prohibitive here, even against a WVU team that is barely in the top-300 in the country in defensive rebounding rate. He's hit 4x at that price just once in his last seven games, averaging only 6.7 ppg over that span. The broken finger he's been playing with since early-March seems to be affecting the offensive aspect of his game, and while he still fills the box score in other areas, it's tough to pay this price for a player unlikely to make a big scoring impact.

3. Brad Davison, G, Wisconsin ($6,300 DK)

Davison awoke from a slumber to go 10-for-15 from the field for a season-high 29 points in the opening-round victory over North Carolina. While UNC had major weaknesses in the backcourt and defending the three, guard play has been one of Baylor's biggest strengths this season. Mix in a much slower projected tempo (and a $600 price hike), and that's enough to keep me away from Davison, and likely this game altogether.

4. Andre Curbelo, G, Illinois ($6,400 DK)

You don't see the Illini in the lower half the day's over/unders often, but that's the case Sunday against Loyola-Chicago. The Ramblers have the second-lowest tempo of remaining tournament teams, as well as KenPom's third-most efficient defense in the nation (among 357 D1 teams). That's enough to put me out on the Illini's sixth-man, especially when he's at a price that rivals the brief stretch when Dosunmu was unavailable.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jake Letarski plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotojakeski, DraftKings: RotoJakeSki.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jake Letarski
RotoWire Editor for College Basketball and MMA. Frequent podcaster, plus radio and video guest. Follow Jake on Twitter at @RotoJake.
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