This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
LSU at South Carolina - Under 138½
Both of the teams in this matchup are built for the under, struggling to score while boasting strong defensive efficiency numbers. LSU is particularly polarized, as its defense is ranked second in the country, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings, with its offense ranked last in the SEC in efficiency since conference season started. South Carolina has a similar story, with its defense ranked 32nd in the country and its offense ranked second lowest in the SEC. All signs indicate this will be a defensive battle, so I'll take my chances on the under.
Northwestern at Minnesota - Over 136
Minnesota's offensive numbers aren't great, but it's worth pointing out the Gophers have played significantly better at home during conference season, averaging more than 67 points in seven games compared to averaging just 60 points in eight conference road games. This is even more noteworthy considering Minnesota has had just one home game in its last five, a 76-70 victory against Penn State a week ago. The Nittany Lions have a stronger defense than the Wildcats, per KenPom's efficiency ratings, so Minnesota should have similar success against Northwestern. It's tempting to take Minnesota as the home underdog, but ultimately its defense is incredibly difficult to trust, ranking second lowest in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency since conference season started, in addition to allowing both the highest two-point and three-point field-goal percentages in the conference. Northwestern plays at the third-fastest tempo in the Big Ten during conference play, so it likely will push the pace assuming Minnesota's defensive struggles continue.
Virginia +2 at Miami
Virginia has played relatively well lately, winning four consecutive games against teams such as Duke and Miami before losing to a formidable Virginia Tech team in its most recent game. Miami has an efficient offense, ranking second in the ACC during conference play, though it's noticeably weak in a couple key areas. First, Miami is arguably the worst rebounding team in the conference, recording the worst defensive rebounding rate in the ACC since conference season started, as well as the second-lowest offensive rebounding rate. The former stat is particularly relevant because Virginia has been effective on the offensive glass, ranking third in the conference in offensive rebounding rate. Virginia will no doubt attack the paint in this game because Miami's other major vulnerability is its interior defense. Miami allows ACC opponents to make almost 55 percent of two-point attempts, the highest percentage allowed in the conference. Virginia is making more than 51 percent of its two-point attempts, good for fifth in the ACC, so the Cavaliers should take advantage of the Hurricanes' defense, especially with the additional putback opportunities that will arise thanks to their offensive rebounding advantage. The Hurricanes likely will put up a fight at home, but ultimately I'm trusting that the Cavaliers' advantages will help them come away with the victory.
Kansas at West Virginia - Over 144½
Kansas has the third-ranked offensive attack in the country, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings, and it's going against a West Virginia team that ranks last in the Big 12 in adjusted defensive efficiency since conference season started. Given this significant advantage and the fact that Kansas scored 85 points against West Virginia in the first matchup between these teams on Jan. 15, the Jayhawks should do their part in helping hit the over. On the other side of the court, West Virginia is only ranked seventh in the conference in offensive efficiency but makes nearly 33 percent of its three-point attempts against Big 12 opponents, the fourth-highest percentage in the conference. Kansas' defense has been stout this year, but it's struggled to cause turnovers, ranking last in the Big 12 in defensive turnover rate during conference play. Additionally, it's important to note both of these teams play at the two-quickest tempos in the Big 12, ensuring a high number of possessions in a fast-paced game.
