Daily Fantasy college basketball is not as different from other daily basketball contests as one would think. Contestants still have to fill out their lineups and try to maximize the value of the players within the salary constraints. The main difference between college basketball and all other sports is the incredibly deep player pool, making it a challenge to keep track of the vast array of teams and players available for use. Fortunately, RotoWire is here to help and has excellent tools to assist with the construction of a lineup. Be sure to check out the Lineup Optimizer to generate the top lineups, as well as allow users to mix and match RotoWire value plays with their own intuition.
Value in DFS is not wholly different than value in season-long fantasy leagues. If you can draft a player who produces first-round stats in the 15th round, that's value. In previous years, I thought that value in college basketball mainly came from the low-priced players (which I called "cheapo plays"). There are so many low-priced players that if you can choose the high-ceiling players that may score even an average amount, then you were way ahead of the game. While I was not entirely wrong, value is not limited to low-priced players. If you select a high-priced player and he has an enormous game, that is also value. On the opposite end of the spectrum, if a high-priced player performs poorly, a lineup is likely doomed. To win, players simply need to find a few value picks and have everyone else perform they way they were supposed to. Perhaps it is not that simple.
Yet, there are some decent avenues of finding value. The first is related to injuries. The best place to find low-priced players who will provide good value is the players who are suddenly thrust into minutes via injury (or other starter vacancy). For example, last season Quentin Snider was a little-used freshman guard who was wiling away on the Louisville bench. When Chris Jones was kicked off the team in mid-February, Snider had beaucoup minutes. His production was not incredible, but his price was bottom-barrel. Snider provided quality value. An example from early-2015 would be the hand injury to Marcus Paige, which is expected to sideline him 3-to-4 weeks. During that span, look for young players like Joel Berry and Nate Britt to see expanded roles.
Where is the best place to find out about injuries? You are looking at it. RotoWire has a talented bunch of writers who will keep you aware of injuries and their implications on backup players. DFS players also should probably not take big chances on high-priced players with injuries. There is too much downside.
While DFS concentrates on individual players, it is wise to know something about the teams. College basketball is a coach's medium, so a coach can largely dictate the pace of play. The NCAA has brought in a 30-second shot clock in 2015-16, which should push the pace and provide more scoring. Even with the new clock, there are going to be plenty of coaches who prefer to slow things down. Virginia coach Tony Bennett prefers to make every possession count, and the Cavaliers scored just 65.3 points per game (225th in the nation) last season. Based on UVA's success, it is hard to argue with the strategy, but it makes Cavalier players and their opponents less than desirable for DFS purposes. An easy place to learn about pace is any sports site's college basketball stats page. In general, the teams that score the most points play at the fastest pace. Teams like Duke, Gonzaga, and Notre Dame played quickly last year. It is worth taking a look at their opponents as well. A quick side note: while Ken Pomeroy's site is an excellent place for stats-based college basketball knowledge, his rankings are generally based on per-100 possessions in an effort to get rid of pace. The site does have pace information and plenty of other in-depth content, but for DFS players scoring average is adequate.
Other Fast-Paced Teams to Target (based on 2014-15 data):
- Arkansas Razorbacks
- North Carolina Tar Heels
- LSU Tigers
- USC Trojans
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Other Slow-Paced Teams to Avoid (based on 2014-15 data):
- Michigan Wolverines
- Northwestern Wildcats
- Cincinnati Bearcats
- Pittsburgh Panthers
- Oregon State Beavers
One player who would be a monster in a per-100 possession or per-30 minute scale is Xavier forward Jalen Reynolds. The 6-foot-10 Musketeer put up 9.9 points and 6.1 rebounds in just 20.3 minutes as a sophomore. Now that Matt Stainbrook is gone, DFS players may expect Reynolds to take a huge leap forward. The problem is that he wasn't limited by the players ahead of him, but his propensity to foul. Reynolds averaged 3.1 fouls and accrued four fouls or more in nine of his last 14 games. While post players can often provide excellent value, they are often play limited due to foul trouble. Reynolds is probably the best example of this, but there are plenty of bigs who do not get whistled. For example, Jahlil Okafor last year was rarely in foul trouble.
Other Players Where Foul Trouble Should Be Considered:
- Jakob Poeltl, C, Utah
- Devin Williams, F, West Virginia
- Rico Gathers, F, Baylor
- Cinmeon Bowers, F, Auburn
- Jordan Bell, F, Oregon
Be sure to keep these tips in mind to avoid fouling out of DFS games, which open up Friday on most sites.
