This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Another college basketball betting board loaded with high-major action takes center stage Friday, and Steve Peralta returns to offer his FIVE favorite plays of the slate.
Indiana at 
Xavier
Indiana is perched high up in KenPom's rankings, currently sitting at No. 10 overall, with an offense at No. 17 and a defense at No. 8 in adjusted efficiency. This is a tough team to bet against, but digging into the matchup, a couple of numbers stand out.
First, Xavier is by far the more balanced shooting team. On paper, Indiana is making 40 percent of its three-point attempts this season, but this is somewhat misleading because Miller Kopp has made six-of-eight attempts, with the rest of the team shooting under 30 percent from behind the arc. Not great. Xavier, on the other hand, is making almost 46 percent of its three-point attempts, the 14th-best percentage in the country, with four players shooting over 40 percent on at least eight attempts each. Considering the Musketeers are playing at home in this matchup, it's hard not to give the offensive advantage to Xavier.
On the defensive side of the equation, Indiana ranks high in overall numbers, but it's allowing opponents to make 47 percent of two-point attempts, noticeably worse than Xavier, which is allowing under 41 percent. Both teams are incredibly effective at scoring inside, so this matchup note will likely come into play.
If this game were at Indiana, it might be a different story, but playing at home, I like the Muskateers' odds. I'm betting they knock down their shots.
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier +3
Baylor vs 
Virginia
On paper, this game features a dead-even matchup between two schools that both won a national championship within the last few years. Baylor comes into the game ranked number five in the country, per KenPom, with Virginia on its heels at number six. Additionally, both teams are exceptionally balanced on both ends of the court. Baylor boasts the third-best adjusted offensive efficiency rating along with the 17th-best defense, while Virginia ranks at No. 10 on both offense and defense.
All that being said, Virginia does have an edge in two key areas -- D1 experience and roster continuity. The Cavaliers have 3.13 years of experience on average, making them the 11th most experienced team in the country, per KenPom. On a similar note, Virginia ranks No. 36 among all D1 teams in minutes continuity, meaning that most of these players saw significant action last season. In contrast, the Bears rank below the D1 average in both playing experience and roster continuity. Baylor obviously still has many talented players, but in a close game, early in the season, these two traits will likely come into play.
All things considered, given the tight matchup, and Virginia's experience advantage, I'll take the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Virginia +5
Villanova at 
Michigan St.
Michigan State finally returns home after an exhausting road trip, one that saw the Spartans lose a heartbreaking game on an aircraft carrier against Gonzaga, followed by a thrilling double overtime victory against Kentucky. Now, Michigan State welcomes Villanova to East Lansing.
For the first time in twenty years, Villanova has some uncertainty in the head coaching position, with Kyle Neptune joining the team after Jay Wright retired after last season. Only time will tell if the Wildcats can maintain their customary excellence on both offense and defense, but one thing is clear up to this point -- they're still playing at an extremely slow tempo. Under Jay Wright, the Wildcats were usually among the slowest teams in the country, and this year's team has carried on that tradition, currently ranked 13th slowest in adjusted tempo. Similarly, Michigan State often plays at a slower pace, though not quite as extreme, so one would expect this game to unfold in a more methodical manner compared to Michigan State's more recent matchups.
Michigan State held both Gonzaga and Kentucky to under 65 points in regulation in its last two games, the number one and number four offensive attacks in the country in adjusted efficiency, respectively. Villanova's offense isn't ranked quite that high, although it's still a proficient group, with a solid core of veterans, so one would expect them to still compete. Ultimately, in what is likely a low-scoring game, I like our chances at covering with the points in addition to hitting the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Villanova +6.5 & Under 132.5
UCLA vs 
Illinois
This pick is all about long-term trends. UCLA head coach Mick Cronin, entering his fourth season with the Bruins, has established himself as an elite defensive coach. Cronin's teams have finished top-20 in adjusted defensive efficiency in seven of the last 10 seasons, and that's counting the first year he joined UCLA when he was tasked with rebuilding a team that played zero defense under coach Steve Alford. Another defining trait of Cronin's teams is their methodical, deliberate pace of play. While not quite as slow as Virginia, Cronin's teams have consistently played at a slow tempo throughout his entire career since 2005.
Similarly, Illinois head coach Brad Underwood has also elevated the Fighting Illini's defense, leading them to a top-35 finish in adjusted efficiency in each of the past three seasons. The year's team is currently ranked No. 21 in adjusted defensive efficiency, suggesting this team will continue that trend for another season. Neither team has allowed an opponent to reach 70 points in a game this season, further underscoring the defensive intensity of the teams involved.
Of all the possible sides and outcomes, a low-scoring defensive battle seems most probable. I'm on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 145.5
Friday Night College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday night:
- Xavier Musketeers +3
- Virginia Cavaliers +5
- Villanova Wildcats +6.5
- Villanova at Michigan St Under 132½
- UCLA vs Illinois Under 145.5
