This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
After going 7-4 with my NCAA Tournament bets last week, I'm back to break down some of the action in the Sweet 16. Here are my predictions for Thursday's college hoops slate.
San Diego State 
vs. UConn
Here we have a rematch of last year's title game, won by Connecticut with a final score of 76-59.
These two teams return to face each other a bit earlier in the tournament, but everything else about this matchup seemingly remains the same.
San Diego State once again has an elite defense, ranking eighth in the nation in adjusted efficiency, but the Aztecs are not so great at scoring points, ranking 53rd in that category. UConn, meanwhile, again enters the matchup boasting a top-10 ranking among all D1 teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
When the Aztecs have the ball, they will undoubtedly have their work cut out for them. They are facing one of the top defensive teams in the nation, and to make matters worse, they have a one-dimensional offensive attack. It wasn't apparent in their game against Yale when they made 13-of-27 three-point attempts, but the Aztecs have struggled with outside scoring all season long. San Diego State set a season-high in three-pointers made in its last game, and that was only its fourth game of the season with at least 10 makes from behind the arc. For comparison, UConn has 16 games with at least 10 made three-pointers. The Aztecs are making under 32 percent from behind the arc on the season, suggesting their shooting performance against Yale is not sustainable long-term. This is a major issue for SDSU because UConn is among the best teams in the nation at stopping inside scoring. UConn is holding opponents to under 44 percent on two-point attempts, the fourth-best percentage allowed in the nation. It also has the third-best effective field goal percentage allowed, further emphasizing the all-around phenomenal defense, regardless of where its opponent attempts a shot. The Huskies have held each of their last three opponents under 60 points, so this defense is still rolling along without any issues.
When the Huskies have the ball, they will also face a stiff challenge on Thursday. In addition to the outstanding efficiency rating, the Aztecs' defense ranks highly in nearly every other important category. San Diego State ranks 26th in effective field goal percentage allowed, 109th in defensive turnover percentage, 126th in defensive rebounding, 49th in block percentage and 63rd in steal percentage. Even though UConn is among the best at scoring points, this is a tough defense to crack any way you look at it.
In trying to forecast how this game will unfold, it's also important to note the styles of each team. Both teams prefer a slower, methodical game, likely making Thursday's showdown a defensive grind. UConn ranks 315th in adjusted tempo, with San Diego State not too far behind at 266th.
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of each team, and the massive spread, I prefer our odds of seeing a low-scoring game. I'm taking the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 136
Alabama 
vs. North Carolina 
I'll confess off the top, I faded North Carolina in the Round of 32. Part of my logic was that Michigan State's defense, ranked 16th in efficiency among all D1 teams, would hold up and keep the game close. That did not happen. The Tar Heels exploded for 85 points and erased an early 12-point lead like it was nothing. Now, instead of facing one of the best defensive teams in the nation, North Carolina gets to play against the worst defensive team remaining in the tournament.
On paper, Alabama's defense held up in the previous round, limiting Grand Canyon to 61 points, but there's more to the story. The Antelopes shot the ball well throughout conference play, making 35 percent from behind the arc, the third-highest percentage in the league, but this did not happen last weekend. Instead, Grand Canyon saved its worst shooting performance of the season for its most important game, making only 2-of-20 three-point attempts. It's a safe bet that North Carolina will have a higher percentage Thursday. Either way, Alabama's defense has consistently been shredded all season, leading to losses against almost every team with a strong offense. The Crimson Tide has played 15 times against an opponent with an offensive efficiency rating that ranks in the top-40 of the nation, and Alabama went 4-11 in those games. The Tide's only victories in these instances came at home against Auburn, Florida (in OT), Indiana State and Texas A&M. It's worth noting that in the rematch against Auburn, the Tigers dropped 99 points in a dominant win, and then Alabama played Florida in two additional games with the Gators dropping over 100 points in each, both Florida victories.
In comparing these teams, the difference is clear. North Carolina is incredibly balanced and elite on both ends of the court, ranking in the top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, while Alabama has a massive defensive liability. It's certainly possible that the Crimson Tide might survive thanks to an explosive offensive attack, but the defense has consistently let Alabama down, and the Tar Heels are well-equipped to take advantage. North Carolina seldom commits turnovers, frequently collects offensive boards and draws many fouls when attacking the basket. For these reasons, I'm laying the points with the Tar Heels.
College Basketball Best Bet: North Carolina -4.5
Illinois 
vs. Iowa State 
This matchup features a textbook case of strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness. Illinois has scored so many points in recent games that it now ranks first among all D1 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. This is a fitting note considering Illinois is taking on Iowa State, a team that has similarly tightened up down the stretch and now boasts the best defensive efficiency rating in the nation. Number one versus number one.
At the other end of the court, the Illini haven't been great defensively, but this flaw might not be fatal considering Iowa State has had similar issues with scoring points. The Cyclones' lack of scoring was most pronounced during the conference season, ranking ninth in offensive efficiency in the Big 12. The issue was bigger than just efficiency, however, as Iowa State recorded the second-worst effective field goal percentage and worst free throw percentage in the Big 12 during the same period. The Cyclones played one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the nation, ranking 346th in difficulty, per KenPom, so this conference data is more pertinent than usual. They lost their two most challenging games of the non-con season, first to Virginia Tech, 71-62, then to Texas A&M, 73-69, so Iowa State still has shown it's far from perfect even though it won the Big 12 conference tournament. Illinois' defense doesn't rank high in efficiency, but it's solid in many key areas. The Illini rank 46th in effective field goal percentage allowed, 70th in defensive rebounding percentage and 31st in free-throw attempt rate allowed, giving them many different tools to stop the Cyclones from scoring.
Similarly, Illinois does many things well on offense that give it a reasonable chance of advancing in the tournament. Perhaps most importantly, Illinois is careful with the ball, recording the 53rd-best offensive turnover percentage in the nation. Iowa State ranks second in D1 in defensive turnover rate, so the Cyclones are at their best when playing against a sloppy team. The Illini are also excellent at pulling down offensive boards, ranking 16th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. Again, this is critical because Iowa State's defense has had severe issues with allowing offensive boards, recording the worst defensive rebounding percentage in the Big 12 during league play. Last, but certainly not least, Illinois is great at drawing contact, recording the second-highest free-throw attempt rate in the Big Ten during the conference season. At the same time, Iowa State had the fourth-worst defensive free-throw attempt rate in the Big 12, 229th in the nation, likely leading to many free-throw attempts for Illinois on Thursday.
It's tough to bet against Iowa State's defense, but then again, I would argue it's just as tough to back its offense, which has the second-worst efficiency rating among the final 16 teams. Ultimately, I'm betting that the Illini and all their offensive talent will emerge victorious when the dust finally settles. I'm going with Illinois in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Illinois +1.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- SDSU vs. UConn - Under 136
- North Carolina -4.5
- Illinois +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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