This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Seven games headline the DraftKings slate Thursday, with a $2k top prize in the $12 Heating Up contest. Let's take a look at today's implied totals -- again dominated by Gonzaga -- before jumping into the recommended plays.
Top Players
Hunter Dickinson, F, Michigan ($8,600 DK, $8,500 FD)
Purdue's offense is among the best in the country, but its defense pales in comparison. Since conference season started, Purdue's defensive efficiency is ranked tenth in the Big Ten, and it's also ranked last in the conference with its forced turnover rate. Michigan's offense, led by Hunter Dickinson, has recorded the third-best offensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten during conference play, so the Wolverines are more than capable of taking advantage of a soft defense, especially at home. Dickinson has been on a tear lately, scoring 19-plus points in 8 of his last 9 games. He's also coming off a season-high 15-rebound performance against Penn State. Barring any surprises, Dickinson will play a significant role in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Jaden Ivey, G, ($8,200 DK, $8,600 FD)
Purdue has the best adjusted offensive efficiency rating in the country, per KenPom, so the Boilermakers are a team to spotlight on the slate. Michigan's defense hasn't been great this season, ranking 11th in the Big Ten with its efficiency rating against conference opponents. Jaden Ivey has demonstrated an elite level of play for most of the season, and he's still trending upward, scoring 21-plus points in 5 of his last 6 games. When Michigan and Purdue played this past Saturday, Feb. 5, Ivey put up 44 fantasy points (DK). The game will be in Ann Arbor the second time around, but Ivey should nonetheless still have a productive game.
Middle Tier
Mark Williams, F, Duke ($6,900 DK, $7,000 FD)
Experiencing déjà vu with this pick, as we previously went with Mark Williams in Duke's last game against Clemson back on Jan. 25. Not much has changed since their previous encounter, as Duke still has a significant matchup advantage, specifically when it comes to blocking shots. Duke is blocking shots at the second-highest rate in the ACC during conference play this season, while Clemson's offense is having its shots blocked at the worst rate in the ACC. Mark Williams is Duke's best shot-blocker, currently with the seventh-best shot-blocking rate in the country. In the first game against Clemson, Williams recorded a double-double and earned KenPom's unofficial "MVP" honors for his performance in that game.
Julian Strawther, G, Gonzaga ($6,400 DK)
Per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings, Gonzaga has the second-best offense in the country and it's going against the worst defense on the slate. As a result, the Bulldogs are projected to score over 90 points, so it's safe to say you'll probably want a piece of the action. We have several intriguing options, but based on the matchup, I like Julian Strawther because of his shooting abilities. Since conference season started, Pacific is allowing WCC opponents to make 39.5 percent of three-point shots, the worst in the conference. Furthermore, on the whole season, Pacific is allowing opponents to make 38.4 percent of three-point attempts, the 15th worst percentage allowed by any D1 team. Julian Strawther should benefit in this spot, as he's attempted the most three-pointers on the team while making 38 percent of his shots from behind the arc. Strawther is also taking 22 percent of his team's shots when on the court, the third-highest rate on the team. Add it all up, and Strawther is in store for a big day.
Value Plays
Nate Roberts, F, Washington ($5,000 DK)
Arizona State is the worst rebounding team in the Pac-12, ranking last in offensive rebounding rate during conference play and second-worst in defensive rebounding rate. Nate Roberts leads the Huskies in rebounding this season, by a decent margin, making him a great DFS candidate. Roberts currently ranks top-four among all Pac-12 players in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates against conference opponents, proving his rebounding numbers are no fluke. Roberts already has a couple of double-doubles under his belt this season, and he's got a decent shot at another one based on the matchup.
Quincy Guerrier, F, Oregon ($4,900 DK, $5,000 FD)
The key matchup note for this game is that Stanford's defense is vulnerable on the inside, allowing Pac-12 opponents to make 53 percent of two-point attempts, the second-worst percentage allowed in the conference. Oregon's offense, meanwhile, is making 52 percent of its two-point attempts against Pac-12 opponents, the second-best percentage in the conference. Quincy Guerrier is doing his part in keeping the percentage high, as he's made over 57 percent of his two-point attempts this season, the second-best percentage on the team among starters. Guerrier has increased his productivity lately, scoring nine-plus points in six of his last eight games played. Overall, he's scored 20-plus fantasy points (DK) in three of his last four games, a nice floor to work with, assuming he can continue his recent trends.
