This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Top Players:
Zion Williamson ($9,600 FD, $11,100 DK) / RJ Barrett ($8,900 FD, $10,000 DK): Every slate involving the Blue Devils starts and ends with making this call. Zion needs to tally nearly 45 points just to hit 4x on DraftKings, and is fast-approaching becoming the year's first $10,000 player on FanDuel. The Cardinals represent one of the toughest remaining challenges for Duke, and are not a team prone to giving up major performances. They sit at No. 28 in defense and No. 250 in tempo, according to KenPom. A pair of near-7-footers in Malik Williams and Steven Enoch protect the paint, while Jordan Nwora has taken a major statistical leap in his sophomore season. Louisville is just No. 83 in the country in three-point FG defense, however, which suggests RJ Barrett might be the more successful of the two tonight. If you're willing to roll the dice, perhaps Cam Reddish ($7,400 FD, $6,800 DK) continues his uptick in production. He's averaged 29.5 FD ppg over his last six and is the team leader in three-pointers made.
Ethan Happ ($9,200 FD, $10,900 DK): Happ will cost you, but I still like him as a GPP play considering he was just 3.2 percent owned in the $5 Throwdown on DraftKings this past Saturday. He would have been well on his way to hitting value too, had foul trouble not caught up to him in the second half. Michigan State is a top-10 team defensively, but is expecting leading rebounder Kenny Goins
Top Players:
Zion Williamson ($9,600 FD, $11,100 DK) / RJ Barrett ($8,900 FD, $10,000 DK): Every slate involving the Blue Devils starts and ends with making this call. Zion needs to tally nearly 45 points just to hit 4x on DraftKings, and is fast-approaching becoming the year's first $10,000 player on FanDuel. The Cardinals represent one of the toughest remaining challenges for Duke, and are not a team prone to giving up major performances. They sit at No. 28 in defense and No. 250 in tempo, according to KenPom. A pair of near-7-footers in Malik Williams and Steven Enoch protect the paint, while Jordan Nwora has taken a major statistical leap in his sophomore season. Louisville is just No. 83 in the country in three-point FG defense, however, which suggests RJ Barrett might be the more successful of the two tonight. If you're willing to roll the dice, perhaps Cam Reddish ($7,400 FD, $6,800 DK) continues his uptick in production. He's averaged 29.5 FD ppg over his last six and is the team leader in three-pointers made.
Ethan Happ ($9,200 FD, $10,900 DK): Happ will cost you, but I still like him as a GPP play considering he was just 3.2 percent owned in the $5 Throwdown on DraftKings this past Saturday. He would have been well on his way to hitting value too, had foul trouble not caught up to him in the second half. Michigan State is a top-10 team defensively, but is expecting leading rebounder Kenny Goins (8.9 rpg) to be very limited due to an elbow injury. The Spartans still have Xavier Tillman and Nick Ward to defend Happ with, but those two will need to consistently double him if they wish to contain the future All-American. Happ saw the Spartans twice his junior year, and posted lines of 22/4/4 and 23/7/4. He'll have a tall task to hit 4x given the matchup, with or without Goins, so like I alluded to earlier I'm probably limiting him to GPPs.
Shamorie Ponds ($8,700 FD, $9,500 DK): Ponds undoubtedly has the ability to flirt with 60 DraftKings points, but he's my second-favorite Big East guard tonight. In a matchup at Butler on 1/19, Ponds had 31.5 DK points, his lowest of conference play (we don't count Duke here). Butler is only No. 95 in KenPom's defensive efficiency, but their No. 279-ranked tempo is enough to avoid targeting them with one of your highest-priced players. Mustapha Heron (knee) is expected back Tuesday, so there won't be any benefit of added touches, either, especially now that Justin Simon (migraines) is getting back to full strength.
Markus Howard ($8,800 FD, $9,500 DK): Howard has an ideal matchup, going up against a top-80 pace team with a defense that sits at No. 119, per KenPom. In an earlier matchup this season, Howard scored 34.1 on FanDuel and 38.25 on DraftKings. That's barely hitting 4x at his current price, but it's difficult to argue with the tear he's on, scoring 40+ on DraftKings in three of four games since then, capped off with a 48.5-point outing against Villanova on Saturday. Ride the hot hand.
Value Plays:
Jordan Harris, Georgia ($4,300 DK): Only available on DK, where he's the chalk play of the night. He's started back-to-back games and averaged 27.8 DK points over his last three.
Sacar Anim, Marquette ($5,400 FD, $4,500 DK): He doesn't do much in terms of peripheral stats, but he's a lock to start and play heavy minutes for the Golden Eagles. Anim is also coming off a 8-for-10 shooting performance against Villanova. He's attempted 27 shots over his last three.
Theo John ($5,600 FD, $4,800 DK): If you don't buy Anim, why not look to John in the frountcourt. He did have 41.0 DK points in their first meeting, after all, collecting a double-double with six rejections.
Nate Reuvers, Wisconsin ($6,000 FD, $4,900 DK): This applies mostly to DraftKings, but note Reuvers is on the heels of back-to-back games with 33 minutes. Wisconsin will need all they can get from their frontcourt, and Reuvers will be able to contribute in the rebounding department, especially if Kenny Goins (elbow) is limited.
Terrell Brown, Pittsburgh ($4,500 DK): In his last four games, Brown has gone for 30.0, 5.0, 25.0 and 0. If you can stomach the inconsistency, there's some high-risk, high-reward appeal against a Boston College team that could be down big man Nic Popovic (concussion).
Jairus Hamilton, Boston College ($4,000 DK): In another DK-only punt, Hamilton might have his best chance of the year to take on heavy minutes in a matchup that isn't overly tough.This recommendation comes mostly due to surrounding injuries, as Steffon Mitchell dealt with recurring quad injury symptoms Saturday and Nik Popovic suffered a concussion in the same game.
Note: For those that prefer to skim, I'll discuss Courtney Ramey ($5,900 FD, $4,700 DK) and Tevin Mack ($5,400 FD, $4,600 DK) as potential value plays in the sections below.
Game to Target:
Mississippi St. (-5.5) vs. Alabama, o/u 151.5, 9:00 p.m. EST
The defensive efficiency and pace marks for both teams lead to this being the highest over/under on the slate -- even greater than the Duke game. The two scored a combined 162 points in their first matchup, and there's little reason to think that can't repeat. Quinndary Weatherspoon ($8,200 FD, $8,000 DK) is a good place to start, but he scored just 26.25 DK points in the first meeting and is coming off another sub-30 game against Kentucky on Saturday. Lamar Peters ($6,500 FD, $6,400 DK) is an option that's intriguing for me at a better price. He took a team-high 19 attempts from the field (0-6 3Pt) in their first matchup, and maybe more of those shots will fall on his home court. Aric Holman ($6,400 FD, $6,900 DK) is probably out of the conversation after getting dropped from the starting lineup in favor of Reggie Perry ($6,200 FD, $5,900 DK), who potentially makes a very nice value play tonight.
Alabama's highest-priced player is Donta Hall ($7,000 FD, $7,200 DK), but he's very tough to trust in this spot after going for under 20 fantasy points in three-straight. You'll get Kira Lewis Jr. ($6,700 FD, $6,100 DK) at a much better price, and he's been good for 27.1 FD points over his last five. A sneakier option I might look to for salary relief is Tevin Mack ($5,400 FD, $4,600 DK). He scored 22.1 FD points in their first game, and has the highest usage rate on the team among regular rotation players over the last 10.
Kentucky (-8.5) vs. LSU, o/u 149, 7:00 p.m. EST
Kentucky enters as decent-sized home favorites, but with the No. 8 defense and No. 232 tempo, working in a lot of LSU exposure might be difficult to rationalize. The Tigers play at a top-50 pace, however, so make sure to get yourself some Kentucky one way or another. P.J. Washington ($8,100 FD, $7,900 DK) has been one of the hottest players in the SEC, averaging 35.95 FD points over his last six. In the last 10 games, he has the team's highest usage rate by a margin of 3.5 percent. Tyler Herro ($6,600 FD, $6,000 DK) leads the team in minutes played but has had consecutive sub-20 games. This would be a good place for him to get back on track. Ashton Hagans ($7,100 FD, $5,600 DK) has been up-and-down of late, and I'll only play him on DraftKings with the big price break. Reid Travis ($6,700 FD, $5,900 DK) has been on the decline a bit with Washington so hot, and I'll probably avoid him against the LSU frontcourt composed of Naz Reid and Kavell Bigby-Williams. If you do want to roll the dice with the Tigers, Tremont Waters ($8,500 FD, $8,700 DK) is a good GPP pivot based solely on recent production. He's averaged over 40 FD points/game over his last six. He'll get a defensively-sound Hagans in his face for most of the game, but no other LSU player will see more opportunities.
Game to Fade:
Texas (-3) vs. Kansas St., o/u 123, 9:00 p.m. CST
The over/under on this game alone should be enough to have you running in the other direction. Texas is No. 23 in KenPom's defensive efficiency and No. 295 in adjusted tempo, while KSU is No. 6 and No. 334 if those marks, respectively. We know Cartier Diarra (hand) will miss this game and possibly a few more, but finding a clear pivot isn't easy, given that Diarra came off the bench to begin with. Xavier Sneed ($5,900 FD, $6,100 DK) probably gets those minutes, but there's not enough of a price break there for me to really like it. The only plus side is that nobody will cost you over $7,500 on DraftKings, but there are plenty of other options in better games to consider. The one exception I'll make here is Courtney Ramey ($5,900 FD, $4,700 DK) on DraftKings, who is coming off games of 35.75 and 25.75 DK points.
