NCAA Tournament Preview: East Region

East Region
West Region
Midwest Region
South Region

It seems most analysts have dubbed the East Region the easiest, or chalkiest, of the four regions, and while I'll stop short of calling myself an analyst, I won't throw much shade on that assumption. Simply put, this seems like the most likely side of a bracket to pencil in the top four seeds into the tournament's second weekend and move on. What follows hopefully just casts a bit of doubt on those projections, rather than serves as a declaration that upsets will be abound in the East.

THE FAVORITES

No. 1 Villanova Wildcats

You'd be hard pressed to find a team better suited for March than the Wildcats. Six players average 27.1 minutes or more, all of which average at least 10.3 points. Guard Jalen Brunson (19.4 ppg, 4.7 apg) leads the way while Mikal Bridges (18.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg) is a future first-round pick. Young but skilled, Eric Paschall (10.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and freshman Omari Spellman (10.7 ppg, 7.9 rpg) add size up front. Their four losses came by a combined 23 points and they can come at you in any way your team can't defend, ranking first in offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage, per KenPom.

No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers

Having righted the ship following a three-game losing streak in early February, Purdue looks built for a deep run in March. Guard Carsen Edwards (18.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg) leads an  offense that ranks second in efficiency and fifth in effective field goal percentage, per KenPom, while also ranking second in 3-point percentage, hitting an impressive 42.0 percent. Center Isaac Haas is a load to deal with on the block, and the Boilermakers have an equally large Matt Haarms to spell him. Purdue comfortably goes eight deep with four starters averaging more than 12.0 points.  They aren't a great rebounding team despite their size, but make up for that by playing solid defense, allowing just 65.6 points nightly. 

No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders

The question for Texas Tech is can they regain their early-February form. Losers of five of their final seven games, the Raiders aren't going to inspire much confidence as you pencil them in past an opening round matchup with Stephen F. Austin. Tech makes their living on defense, ranking third in efficiency, 16th in turnover percentage and 13th in effective field goal percentage. Their an incredibly long, athletic team that can looks physically intimidating during warmups, and with a healthy alpha guard in Keenan Evans (17.5 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.2 apg), they're capable of beating anyone in front of them. 

No. 4 Wichita State Shockers

The Shockers run into March quite literally, using a deep roster to rank 19th nationally in scoring at 83.0 points per game. Sophomore guard Landry Shamet (15.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 5.1 apg) leads the way for a group that plays 10 players at least 11 minutes, while only Shamet (31.6 minutes) plays more than 24. They rank ninth nationally in rebounding (40.5) and third in assists (18.5). Their pace leads to some skewed defensive statistics, but it remains fair to say that defense, or lack thereof, can be the Shockers' Achilles heel. They lost two of their final three games while needing overtime to beat UCF, and the Shockers haven't made it out of the tournament's first weekend in the last two years, possibly causing some hesitation in picking in their favor. 

CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 6 Florida Gators

You know it's a chalky region when a six seed is a potential Cinderella. The consensus seems to be picking against Florida regardless of who wins between Bona and UCLA, and for that reason, they may represent a bargain to your bracket. This is a team that beat Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn down the stretch before flaming out in the conference tournament. They rank 23rd overall in KenPom rankings, suggesting they're under-seeded. Florida hits the 3-point basketb at a 37.5 percent clip, and if they're on, they can take easily win two games or more. 

No. 7 Arkansas Razorbacks

The SEC has been under-appreciated for most of the season, and perhaps the Razorbacks can be a beneficiary of that. They check in at 37 in KenPom's rankings, and their backcourt pairing of Jaylen Barford (18.0 ppg) and Daryl Macon (16.9 ppg) can score enough to threaten any opponent, while the team shoots 40.1 percent from 3-point range, suggesting they could shoot down anyone. 

BIGGEST BUST

No. 4 Wichita State Shockers

None of the Top-4 seeds seem obviously vulnerable, but the Shockers defensive lapses suggest they are the most likely of the favorites to fall early. They don't force turnovers (290th according to KenPom), they allow opponents to hit a moderate 36.3 percent from 3-point range (247th) and overall rank 107 in defensive efficiency. Marshall doesn't appear to be a threat in Round 1, but either Murray State or West Virginia could spell trouble for the Shockers' hopes of reaching the tournament's second weekend. 

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 12 Murray State over No. 5 West Virginia – Contradiction pending, because I don't really believe the Racers win this contest. But they appear to represent the best chance for a double-digit seed to steal a game in the East.  They rank 25th in field goal efficiency and 20th in defensive field goal efficiency, per KenPom. Their No. 100 ranking in turnover percentage is concerning against the Mountaineers press, but WVU has shown its propensity to wilt in tight situations. Good chance at an upset? Maybe not, but is there a puncher's chance? Absolutely. 

PLAYER TO WATCH

Carsen Edwards, G, Purdue – Villanova has depth, as does Wichita, while Texas Tech and West Virginia both have clear alphas. What does Purdue have? It has a dominant big man in Isaac Haas and a largely consistent Edwards. But in the Boilermaker's six losses, Edwards has been held to 14 points or less three times while shooting a collective 34-of-90 (37.8 percent) He's gone for 26 or more in five of his last nine, and when on, gives Purdue at worst an inside-outside game, and at best a go-to scorer that can get hot enough to win games single-handedly. 

SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Villanova Wildcats

Virginia Tech has the confidence of beating top teams and could cause some concerns, but they aren't a lock to beat Alabama. The 'Cats are likely double-digit favorites in both games this week, and should cruise in Pittsburgh. 

No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers

The Boilermakers size seems likely to overwhelm for at least the first two contests. Arkansas could pose a threat, but leaning on Haas' size against freshman Daniel Gafford should put Purdue into Boston. 

No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders

Their current form is concerning, but I like the Raiders length and defense to prevail.

No. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers

Yes, I've put the Mountaineers on modest upset alert, but I also think they've got the best shot to advance into the second weekend as a lower seed. Survive against Murray State and there's a quick turnaround for Wichita to prepare for the WVU press that has led the way to a second-ranked turnover percentage. Its their defense paired with Wichita's spotty play against opposing offenses that gets the 'Eers to Boston. 

FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 1 Villanova Wildcats

Picking against 'Nova makes some sense, as they've lost in the second round two of the past three seasons. And while neither potential opponent in the round of 32 represents an easy win, they don't post huge threats either. Maybe Purdue's size poses problems in a regional final, but this is a dominant team that hasn't lost outside of its own conference to date, and is poised to work it's way into San Antonio with little opposition.