DraftKings College Football: Week 15 Main Slate

DraftKings College Football: Week 15 Main Slate

This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.

Welcome to this week's main slate breakdown for DraftKings, where we have 11 games following the cancellations to Oklahoma-West Virginia and Oregon-Washington. 

Alabama leads the way with an expected score of 50.5 against Arkansas, which is a full two touchdowns higher than any other team on the board. Elsewhere, the Miami-North Carolina game leads the pack in terms of the over/under at 69.5. Louisville-Wake Forest, Memphis-Houston, and Maryland Rutgers round out the top five over/unders on the board and all of them profile as competitive matchups, unlike the Alabama-Arkansas game that has a 32.5-point spread.

Below you'll find our suite of DFS tools along with matchup info and a detailed breakdown by position. 

DFS Tools

Matchup Info

Position-by-Position Breakdown

Quarterback

JT Daniels, Georgia ($8,200) at Missouri

Daniels has completely altered the outlook of Georgia's offense. In two starts, Daniels has completed 38 of 54 passes for 540 yards, six touchdowns, and a pick. For reference, Georgia had nine passing touchdowns in its first six games. As a team. And Daniels only threw it 16 times in his last outing against South Carolina due to the lopsided nature of that game. 

This one should be more competitive as Georgia is on the road facing a solid Missouri team that is starting to round into form under its new coach. A more competitive game should lead to more attempts for Daniels, and his ability coupled with the weapons around him make him a strong option for this slate. 

Clayton Tune, Houston ($7,800) at Memphis

That Tune is this far down the board is a bit surprising. That he's $800 cheaper than Brady White is definitely surprising. White has largely struggled of late and he adds next to nothing in terms of rushing production. He has four touchdowns against three picks and a 54.5 percent completion rate over his last three games (Stephen F. Austin, Navy, Tulane). Houston isn't great defensively but it's just as good as Navy or Tulane. 

Anyway, back to Tune. He is set up for success in this matchup despite Houston's lengthy layoff since its last game. Memphis surrenders a slate-high 307 pass yards per game on 8.0 YPA. Tune is averaging nearly 8.0 YPA and throwing it over 30 times a game, so I like his chances of producing in this setup. He's also churning out solid rushing production with 233 yards and four touchdowns on 52 attempts (4.5 YPC). Tune is my favorite quarterback in the $7,500-$8K range.

Malik Cunningham, Louisville ($8,900) and Sam Hartman ($6,800), Wake Forest

If you're looking for a game stack, this might be the best starting point. We have the third-highest total (63.0) on the board and a narrow, 2.5-point spread in favor of the home team Cardinals. With that, we can expect both sides of this matchup to put up 30-plus points. 

Cunningham is obviously the safer play; he has crossed the 25-point threshold on DK in six of his 10 outings and now faces a Wake Forest defense that allows the 14th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Even with no Tutu Atwell or Javian Hawkins, Cunningham will still produce in this spot.

Hartman is the tougher sell. Prior to his last game, Hartman didn't have a single multi-touchdown performance all year and had actually failed to crack the 20.0 FP mark at all. Then he went off for 429 yards and five total touchdowns against North Carolina. So, was that a fluke? Probably. But this is still an offense that traditionally gets plenty of production from its quarterback thanks to high tempo and volume, and Hartman showed some legit traits in the past before Jamie Newman took over in 2019. Plus, Louisville's defense is significantly worse than North Carolina's on balance. Even if we can't expect another outing like his one against North Carolina, Hartman is still a fine play, particularly in a lineup that also includes Cunningham. 

Running Back

Mataeo Durant, Duke at Florida State

It's easy to pick on the Seminoles these days, so I'll go ahead and join in on the fun. Florida State allows 5.2 YPC as a team and just under 3.0 rushing touchdowns per game as well. The 'Noles haven't played since Week 11, which is nearly a month ago, so rust could be a factor as well. As for Durant, he has his rushing volume capped because of Duke's committee approach in the backfield, but he is the superior option over Deon Jackson, who has 40 more carries than Durant on the season but 42 fewer rush yards. That paints a good picture of how much more efficient – 2.0 full yards per carry – Durant is than his backfield counterpart. Durant also has seven rushing touchdowns compared to Jackson's four and is slightly more involved in the passing game. Finding mid-tier options at running back is important on this slate if you're starting with a Mac Jones-DeVonta Smith core, and Durant stands as one of the best values from that tier. 

Reese White, Coastal Carolina ($3,900) at Troy

CJ Marable is the alpha of the Chants' backfield and quarterback Grayson McCall gets in on the action as well, but White is still involved. White has at least seven carries in each of his last five games, including a 12-carry performance against BYU last week. Getting that much work against BYU is a sign that White is a significant part of the backfield regardless of whether it's a competitive game or a blowout. In that recent five-game stretch, White has averaged 6.4 YPC and run for four touchdowns on 43 attempts. He'll face a Troy squad that is two-touchdown underdogs and surrenders 165 rushing yards per game. Though White won't be the focal point for Coastal Carolina, he can push for 10 carries with strong efficiency, making him a worthy consideration under $4K. 

Isaih Pacheco, Rutgers ($4,500) at Maryland

Pacheco is a starting running back with a soft matchup and yet he checks in at just $4,500. He owns a 34 percent share of the Rutgers rushing work. In fairness, some of his price tag is likely due to the fact that he had just five carries for four yards against Penn State, so there's some risk here. But this is still a player who averaged 12.8 DK points prior to that outing and saw 14.3 carries per game in his first six games. If he can tap back into that volume, Pacheco profiles as a strong play against a Maryland defense that allows 228.8 rushing yards and 3.0 rushing scores per game. I like the bounce-back potential at a decreased salary for Pacheco this week. 

Memphis Running Backs

Memphis is tough to sort through in the backfield as it could be starting its third different running back in three weeks on Saturday if Rodrigues Clark ($5,700) is back. Marquavius Weaver ($3,000) is interesting – he saw 15 carries against Navy two weeks ago, but Memphis was down several other options. Asa Martin ($4,800) got the big role last week but only churned out 39 yards on13 carries. Memphis is positioned for success on the ground Saturday as Houston coughs up 193.5 yards per game, but finding the right play will likely come down to the pregame injury report. Memphis is dicey, but if we get some clarification on the rotation, it's possible that one of these players pops against a weak Houston defense. 

Other Suggestion

Lawrance Toafili, Florida State ($3,500) vs. Duke: La'Damian Webb's decision to opt out should open up more carries in the Florida State backfield, and while Jashaun Corbin is still a factor, Toafili is extremely interesting at $3,500. He's finally healthy and is set for a bigger role than he's seen this season. In a limited sample, the freshman has ripped off 239 yards on just 30 carries. Toafili is a dart with upside and, finally, a path to volume.

Wide Receiver

Dez Fitzpatrick, Louisville ($5,800) vs. Wake Forest

We've already established that we're in on the Louisville passing game this week, and Fitzpatrick stands as the top option to pair with Cunningham. Fitzpatrick no longer has to compete with Tutu Atwell (opt-out) for targets and is the clear-cut No.1 in this offense. He already had a 24 percent target share and that number could swell even more in Atwell's absence. Fitzpatrick has been tremendous despite being saddled with heavy volume, averaging 12.0 YPT over 63 targets. He is close to a must-play at $5,800 on Saturday.

Jahan Dotson ($6,500) and Parker Washington ($4,400), Penn State vs. Michigan State

Both of these players are frequent flyers in this column, but as long as they keep getting listed at reasonable salaries, I'll keep buying in. Dotson has admittedly gone cold in recent weeks with 13 combined DK points against Michigan and Rutgers but the target volume has still been solid (15 in those two games) and the matchup is favorable this week. 

Now, Michigan State hasn't been a total liability against the pass (231.7 YPG, 6.4 YPA) but last week showed that it can be taken advantage of through the air when it faces competent quarterback play. I'm not drawing a comparison to Ohio State here, but Penn State is closer in on-paper talent to the Buckeyes than some of the other teams that have struggled against Sparty. Dotson has a ceiling that is belied by his salary and recent performance. 

With Washington, we have a legit No.2 wideout who has consistently produced with his opportunities. The freshman has a 23 percent target share and sees 7.7 targets per game. The per-target production could be better– he averages just 7.0 YPT– but outings like his 31 yards on six targets against Iowa or 12 yards against Indiana on four targets hurt that average. We're playing with a small sample either way, but I'm more inclined to be in on Washington with volume than not, and this matchup against Michigan State isn't intimidating. 

Memphis vs. Houston Passing Game Options

This game might be the most important one on the slate. We have a high total (62.5) with a narrow spread (Houston -5) and two suspect pass defenses trying to slow down two solid passing attacks. 

Calvin Austin ($7,500) is the engine to the Memphis passing game with a 32 percent target share since Damonte Coxie opted out in October. He has 44 catches for 862 yards and seven touchdowns in those seven games while drawing 86 targets. No, the catch rate isn't ideal, but the per-catch (19.6) and per-target (10.0) numbers are stellar nonetheless.

Elsewhere on Memphis, Tahj Washington ($5,100) is an extremely strong option in the mid-tier. Washington is posting very similar numbers to Austin with a shaky catch rate but explosive production. In his last eight games, Washington has 29 catches for 574 yards and four touchdowns on 54 targets, which adds up to 10.6 YPT and 19.8 YPR. 

As for Houston, it's hard to trust Marquez Stevenson at $7,500. He's clearly the best receiver on the Cougs and one of the best on the slate when healthy, but he hasn't played since suffering an ankle injury in Week 9. That's a long layoff even if his ankle is healthy enough for him to play. The other options are promising, though. Nathaniel Dell ($4,300) and Keith Corbin ($5,900) have been the primary targets in Stevenson's absence. Dell has 12 catches on 21 targets for 176 yards and a score in his last three and should continue to be involved even if Stevenson is back. I like him better than Corbin given that the usage has been roughly the same of late and yet the price disparity is $1,600. 

Other Suggestions

Kaylon Geiger, Troy ($4,900) vs. Coastal Carolina: Geiger owns a 20 percent target share and sees 7.7 targets per game. Expect high volume against Coastal Carolina as Troy should be trailing for much of the game. 

Rakim Jarrett, Maryland ($5,300) vs. Rutgers: Maryland ranks 14th in pass play rate (54.9%) and Jarrett has a 14.3 percent target share that would be much higher if not for his absence in the Indiana game. He averages 12.5 YPT and will get fed against a bad Rutgers pass defense. Maryland's entire receiving corps is sneakily in play Saturday – Dontay Demus is just $6,100 as the leader of the receiving corps and Jeshaun Jones is $4,400. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. John McKechnie plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: Fanduel: mckech3; DraftKings: mckech3.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John McKechnie
John is the 2016 FSWA College Writer of the Year winner. He is a Maryland native and graduate of the University of Georgia. He's been writing for RotoWire since 2014.
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