This article is part of our FanDuel College Football series.
We are now in the double digits in terms of the week of the college football season, meaning the regular season is drawing closer to the end as we turn the calendar to November. One game stands out in particular on Saturday's slate in terms of the over-under total, and that is North Carolina-Wake Forest, which sits at 76.5. Only Ole-Miss Liberty (66.5), Alabama-LSU (66.5) and Nebraska-Ohio State (66.0) join that game in crossing the 60-point total. Georgia's stout defense keeps the expected scoring for Missouri low enough for the game not to make it to 60 despite the Bulldogs holding the highest expected score (49.5) on the slate. Most of the top games round out the big expected scores, unsurprisingly, with Alabama (47.5), Ohio State (40.25, North Carolina (39.5), Ole Miss (38.0) and Wake Forest (37.0) rounding out the expected scores surpassing 35. Lastly, Georgia (-39.5) and Alabama (-28.5) are by far the heaviest favorites on the slate, with Ohio State (-14.0) and Penn State (-10.0) rounding out the double-digit favorites for Saturday.
Let's take a look at possible weather impacts:
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina Tar Heels - Slight chance of rain late in the game and wind reaching into double digits at some point. Shouldn't be too much of an impact overall.
Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies : Strong chance of rain that brings with it gusty winds that could definitely impact passing games and the scoring total.
Matt Corral, Ole Miss - Didn't practice Monday but there doesn't seem to be much concern surrounding his status.
JT Daniels, Georgia - Was available last week but didn't play at all against Florida.
Connor Bazelak, Missouri - Questionable on the injury report after suffering an injury last Saturday.
Zach Evans, TCU - No update yet on his status for this week after he was spotted in a walking boot last Saturday.
Joshua Mack, Liberty - Sat out last week and his status for Saturday is uncertain.
Caleb Hood, North Carolina - Hasn't played since late September and no indication of when he will be available.
Master Teague, Ohio State - Remains day-to-day for this week.
Peny Boone, Maryland - Not on depth chart but practiced Tuesday, so his status for Saturday is unclear.
Elijah Collins, Michigan State - Was in uniform last week but didn't see the field. Seems unlikely to play much this week either regardless of status.
Dontario Drummond, Ole Miss - Status for Saturday is uncertain at this point.
Jalen Nailor, Michigan State - Didn't take the field in the second half last week. Ran around at practice Tuesday but hand was the injury so that doesn't mean a ton.
Joshua Moore, Texas - Status was believed to be in question earlier in the week but coach Sark said he will be available for the full game Saturday.
Braylon Sanders, Ole Miss - Was unable to cut in one direction last Saturday after warming up and was ultimately held out. Questionable again this week.
Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss - Hasn't played since early October and timetable to return remains unclear.
Jahleel Billingsley, Alabama - Seems likely to play after going to medical tent in the previous game. Had a bye week to rest up.
Chase Rogers, Ole Miss - Hasn't played for a while due to an ankle injury and status remains unclear.
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Week 10 Plays
Sam Howell, North Carolina ($11,500) vs. Wake Forest
Howell has finished with no fewer than 25.92 points over the last four weeks and has tallied at least that total in all but three games thus far. He's topped 32 FD points in each of the last two and has surpassed 40 on multiple occasions. Saturday could mark another opportunity for Howell, who has really placed an emphasis on his ground game again recently, to show off his wheels. Wake Forest hasn't faced an offense of this caliber to date and has a history of allowing opposing quarterbacks run for major yardage. Over the last four weeks, opposing quarterbacks have run for a combined 389 yards and five touchdowns. In addition to seven passing touchdowns over that span. Howell has the ability to get it done via both avenues in a high-scoring contest, so I'd be a bit more interested in backing the mobile quarterback over his counterpart in the same contest, who sits just $100 less in salary.
Malik Willis, Liberty ($10,200) at Ole Miss
Selecting Willis is a bit riskier because Liberty's total stands at just 28.5 for the contest, but he figures to have a hand in most of the scoring and is another quarterback with the upside you are looking for out of the quarterback position, turning in 40-plus points more than once thus far. With a ton of NFL scouts expected to be in the stands and two of the 2021 NFL Draft class QBs to be on display in this game, you can bet that Willis will be looking to show what he has on the big stage. The Ole Miss defense has also obliged opposing quarterbacks so far this season, allowing eight rushing scores and 318 rushing yards over eight games. Willis should stand a decent chance to reach pay dirt on multiple occasions as a runner and figures to toss a touchdown pass or two as well in a game the Flames are expected to lose by more than a score.
GPP Dart: Aidan O'Connell, Purdue ($6,700) vs. Michigan State
Another risky total here at the quarterback position with Purdue holding a 25.25 expected score, but I'm of the belief that this game could become higher scoring than the line suggests. The Spartans' defense has surrendered almost 300 more passing yards than any other team on the slate, and over 300 per contest thus far. That should be music to O'Connell's ears. The Boilers' offensive conductor has thrown the ball at least 40 times in three of the last four games and has shown the ability to step up in big games, finishing with a season-high 28.8 FD points at Iowa in mid-October. With the Boilers looking to play spoiler in front of the home crowd, O'Connell should have a sizeable floor of around 300 passing yards and could turn in a strong overall day if he can convert some of that yardage into a few touchdowns.
Brian Robinson Jr., Alabama ($10,600) vs. LSU
Among the backs near the top of the board, Robinson checks all of the boxes the best in my opinion. He holds the necessary volume share to churn out a big game, accounting for 46-plus percent of carries in each of his last five games played – he sat out versus Southern Miss – and more than 50 percent in all but one. The game script (Alabama -28.5) favors a heavy dose of the run game as well. The fact that it's LSU on the schedule, a game that has had some bad blood in the past, it could result in the starters staying in the contest a bit longer. Lastly, the Tigers' defense ranks among the worst on the slate with 29.8 FD points per game allowed to opposing backs. That includes 200-plus rushing yards allowed to two of the last three backfields the Tigers have faced. This all adds up to a pretty safe floor and high ceiling for Robinson.
Abram Smith, Baylor ($9,000) at TCU
Smith is another favorite of mine on this slate. He has taken over the clear lead role in the backfield only recently, sporting carry shares of 57 and 48 percent over the last two games. The increase in workload has led him to 301 rushing yards and four touchdowns in those two contests, and he should have an opportunity to tack on another big effort Saturday. TCU's defensive front has yielded a slate-high 16 rushing scores and 32.2 FD points per contest to opposing, the third-highest mark. It's consistent production across the board as well rather than a breakout contest or two, yielding 13 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs over the last five games and 128 or more rushing yards to the last six backfields. Smith should have a great chance to continue that trend in a game with Baylor checking in as touchdown favorites.
Jaylen Warren, Oklahoma State ($8,900) at West Virginia
Warren is my under-the-radar play this week among the top half of backs. There isn't a ton to love here in terms of matchup (West Virginia is just mid-pack in FD points per game allowed) and recent production (just 27 carries for 145 yards over the last two games. The total in this one (49.0) also figures to scare off the majority of those who weren't put off otherwise. All of that being said, Warren's reduced workload last week came in a blowout win over Kansas and his previous game was against an Iowa State defense that ranks in the top 15 nationally against the run. While West Virginia is no slouch against the ground game (31st nationally in yards per game allowed), the Mountaineers have displayed some cracks on that front recently, surrendering 120-plus rushing yards to the last three running back groups they faced and 160-plus to two of the three. The Cowboys' offense also runs through Warren, who had 27-plus carries in each of the four games prior to his downturn the last couple of weeks. This is expected to be a close contest, and I anticipate Warren being front and center again this week. He figures to be worth consideration primarily in GPP contests but typically has shown to have a stable floor as well when utilized on a regular scale.
GPP Dart: Noah Cain, Penn State ($6,600) at Maryland
There is nothing in Cain's recent track record to suggest he's in line for a big game and the surface numbers don't look much worse than average. When you view it a bit more closely, you see that the vast majority of that yardage comes via running backs. That hold particularly true over the las three games, with opposing running backs racking up a combined 623 yards and eight rushing scores over that span. The Nittany Lions haven't really been in a position o rely a ton on the ground game recently, which has likely played a role in the limited opportunities Cain has seen. That could change this week with Penn State entering as 10-point favorites. Cain did hold a sizeable role early in the season, rushing 20 times versus Ball State and 19 versus Auburn in back-to-back weeks. He turned in 43.9 FD points over the first three weeks, so there is some precedent of production to look at for Cain and a matchup to exploit this week.
Dartier GPP Dart: Kenny McIntosh, Georgia ($5,200) vs. Missouri
Picking McIntosh as a home run play simply works because this game has all of the makings of a blowout. The Bulldogs run a committee approach, with McIntosh sitting third in the group behind Zamir White and James Cook. Even so, he gets his fair share of touches and could be in line for a decent amount of usage in the second half of this contest if Georgia runs all over the Mizzou front as should be expected. The Tigers allow an FBS-worst 283.9 rushing yards per game and a slate-worst 6.3 yards per carry, which plays right into the hands of a good running team like Georgia As 40-point favorites against a Missouri team whose starting quarterback is questionable for the game, this could get ugly and we could see a lot of McIntosh as the Dawgs salt away the clock.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
David Bell, Purdue ($8,900) vs. Michigan State
Bell is one of the few wideouts in college football who can turn in a solid day even if he doesn't score thanks to his heavy volume of targets. I would expect nothing different in terms of his target volume this week versus a Michigan State pass defense that is yielding more than 300 passing yards per game and a slate-high 42.2 FD points to opposing wide receivers. He also checks in at a reasonable salary, tied for sixth on the slate with Jameson Williams. He's also the perfect pairing option for Aidian O'Connell above, if you decide to go with a Purdue stack, which should still leave ample salary on the table to distribute elsewhere.
Treylon Burks, Arkansas ($8,700) vs. Mississippi State
Burks seems like a slam dunk in my eyes as well. Just behind Michigan State in the fantasy points per game allowed is Mississippi State, who yields 35.8 FD points per contest to opposing wideouts. A large part of that is the 12 receiving touchdowns the Bulldogs have allowed. Burks is no stranger to the end zone, finding pay dirt seven times over eight games thus far and five times in the last three games. This contest should be another opportunity for him to show off his NFL-caliber talent and he comes in just behind Bell on the salary scale. Given his recent dominance, it's hard to see why he falls so far down the list.
Health is a big question mark across the board for the Ole Miss wide receivers. Drummond is questionable after operating at what was likely less than 100 percent last Saturday versus Auburn. He has sizable upside when healthy, turning in three straight 20-plus point efforts to open the season, but he also has floor concerns at his salary, turning in some duds of late. Pearson has made gains in the target department over recent weeks, posting a season-best nine Saturday, which he turned into seven cates for 135 yards. The Western Kentucky transfer is undersized (5-foot-8) to be a huge red=zone threat, but he could see plenty of looks again Saturday, especially if Drummond and/or Sanders sits. He also scored seven touchdowns over 13 games with Western Kentucky back in 2019, so he does have a history of finding pay dirt on occasion. Sanders is a wild card here if healthy and has the ability to take the top off of a defense, averaging 23.8 yards per reception on the season. He was unable to suit up either of the last two weeks due to a leg issue but did warm up last week, so there is a chance we see him in this one. This is a game Matt Corral will likely look to be at his best as well, given the expected influx of NFL scouts, so there could be plenty of passes to go around.
GPP Dart Play: Antoine Green, North Carolina ($6,400) vs. Wake Forest
As his salary suggests, Green is a player whose production can bounce all over the place. However, this is a week where there could be plenty of passes to go around for both teams, and Green is second in line for targets behind Josh Downs. The senior has a pair of breakout games under his belt, finishing with 19.2 FD points in Week 2 and 16.8 FD points last Saturday, and he should have a decent chance to make it three this Saturday as the Tar Heels aim to keep pace with the high-powered Wake Forest offense. This is a game that figures to feature tons of plays on both sides of the ball, which should allot Green at least a few chances to make his mark on the box score with some big plays.
Others to consider: Josh Downs, North Carolina ($10,500), Jaquarii Roberson, Wake Forest ($9,000), Xavier Hutchinson, Iowa State ($8,100) vs. Texas, GPP plays: Omar Manning, Nebraska ($5,900), Deion Smith, LSU ($5,000 - if he plays)